How to become a millionaire sports trader and bettor!

If you came to this article for a strategy that is going to make you unlimited amounts of money from Betfair. I’m sorry but you might be disappointed.

What I wanted to do in this article is address two things.

Show how easy it is to look like your staking huge amount of money on your bets/trades.
Write about why learning about the process of a good trade is more important then seeing winning screen shots.

How to become a millionaire sports trader and bettor!

In the above image there is a trade I made this morning just as an example for this article. I backed a horse called Kastani Beach at odds of 6.8 for a £5 stake. You can see that I stand to win £27.58 should the horse win and lose £5.00 if it doesn’t.

Now look what happens if I make some manual adjustments.

Now suddenly I am risking £5 to win £2700.58. If you look at the image however not much else has changed.

Only one bet has been matched the back bet at 6.8. My lay bet at 6.6 hasn’t been matched either so why has my profit margin increased so much?

How to fake a trade or betslip

The process only takes a few seconds. It is very easy to appear that you staking or winning much more then you are in reality.

1.You highlight your potential winnings.

2. Right click and select inspect.

3. Find and highlight your stake amount .

4. Change it to whatever amount you want.

That’s how easy it is to look like you are a hugely successful trader or sports bettor. You can do this on any sports book and other exchanges. Its why big green screens are not very useful unless there is some context behind them.

Why do people do this?

It attracts attention and builds social media presence. It generates more traffic.

Look at the popularity of a guy like Dan Bilzerian for example.

I have tested this myself. If I post up an article on social media with a winning trade or some profitable results attached. It will generally generate much more traffic then if I used a generic image of a football match for example.

When people see winning trades they can envision themselves doing the same thing. You see some of these fake twitter tipsters with 100k followings that offer nothing of value at all. They don’t educate their followers or provide actual profitable bets. But they post up huge betslips, funny memes and have a £10-£10,000 challenge.

If you are looking to get an insight into being a better sports trader/bettor. Follow people that actually provide an insight into the process of making good trades or bets. Ignore the big greens and winning betslips unless there is a useful explanation behind them.

Whilst I was writing my trade got matched.

Made my profit target for the day, I’m off to Monte Carlo for the afternoon on my private jet.

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

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First Goalscorer Trading Strategy – Simple Football Trading Strategy

Trading the first goalscorer what to look out for?

The first goalscorer market is one that is often overlooked by a lot of traders. It is not the most liquid of the football markets but there still often good trading opportunities to be found.

Lets take a look at two approaches you can use when tackling the first goalscorer markets.

First Goalscorer Trading Strategy – Market Maker

One approach you can use in the first goalscorer market is to offer multiple lay bets at prices below that of the bookmakers. For example lets take a look at tonight’s game Juventus vs Napoli.

This was at 09.00 this morning and the game was due to be played at 19.45.

There has been no money matched so far but as the time draws nearer to the game liquidity will increase. What you can see above however is that there is already multiple back bets available.

This means that someone or a few people have put lay bets in the market hoping to get matched.

Apart from Gonzalo Higuain all the above prices are below that of the rest of the betting market. This means that if anyone does back at these prices then the layer of these bets will be able to hedge his bet later for a guaranteed profit.

Lets take a look at how the bookies prices compare.

Arbing With Bookmakers

For example if someone matched your lay bet on Miralem Pjanic at 6.8 there are odds of 9.5 available to back at Bet365 and Betstars. This gives you an arbitrage situation.

You can either lock in your profit using bookmakers or wait till closer to kick off when the prices become more liquid and trade out.

This strategy relies on patience and hoping that a recreational bettor takes your bet or someone makes a mistake. You are more likely to get matched in one of the bigger games where there is more interest and money in the markets.

If you look at the above example I set myself up in two positions that I believe will be profitable.

Higuain is available at a best priced 4.25 with the bookmakers.

Big name goalscorers like Higuain tend to be priced much closer to the exchange price. I believe that my position at 4.8 is a value position and that I should be able to hedge it for lower closer to the game.

The second position I have put in is a lay bet on Pjanic at 7.4.

If this was to get matched I could back him at 9.5 on Bet365 or Betstars for an arbitrage bet or wait for the liquidity to arrvive and trade out at a higher price.

First Goalscorer Trading Strategy – Unexpected Starters

The second strategy that I want to outline is when the expected line up is something of a mystery. This usually happens in cup games and I will use the Sutton vs Arsenal FA cup game as an example.

Now in this game it was uncertain who would start as the main striker for Arsenal. When the team news was announced it was Theo Walcott who was pictured as a lone striker. This game was also being featured on the BBC which means there would be lots of liquidity and interest.

These are always good conditions for trading.

Given that Arsenal were priced at 1.13 and heavy favourites alongside the factors I mentioned above.

It was likely that there would be a lot of money being bet on Theo Walcott to score first. I backed the available money at 4.6 which was around £300 and then when the price shortened I layed it at 4.4.

Hedging the position for a profit across all outcomes for around £13 was an option but I choose to leave the majority of the profit on a Theo Walcott goal.

So there are a few pointers to look out for when trading the first goalscorer markets. There are often opportunities available in this market if you prepare a little and plan ahead.

Betfair Trading – 6 Tips For Beginners

Betfair Trading For Beginners

Trading on Betfair can be a very exciting prospect and there are new people coming to sports trading on a daily basis.

Here are six Betfair trading tips to help you get started on your trading journey

Trading Psychology – Manage Your Expectations

A question that a lot of people ask when first starting to trade on Betfair is “How much can I make?”

This is a question that can’t be answered. Some people may go on to make large sums of money. Whilst others struggle to make any.

If you focus on the money but ignore the process you will struggle. The main question to focus on when you start trading is “how can I make money?”

Where is the opportunity?

How do the markets functions?

Why would this be a profitable strategy?

Becoming a profitable sports trader may take some time. It is important to manage your expectations and not expect too much too soon.

Your trading psychology is likely going to one of the main factors in whether or not you become a profitable trader.

Betfair Trading Beginners — There are a lot of options when trading its easy to get confused.

Focus On One Sport

There are so many options to look at when trading on Betfair. There is in-play trading or pre-event trading for a start. Then numerous sports to trade football, tennis, cricket, horse racing, basketball, darts etc.

It can be quite tough to know where to start.

Initially you might want to look at the different sports and how the markets react. Once you have found the sport that suits your trading style its time to focus on that one.

You can see that many of the best sports traders around specialize in one sport.

Caan Berry – Horse Racing

Psychoff – Football

Dan Weston – Tennis

Be Patient

Good trading is often about waiting for the best opportunities to present themselves. You need patience in order to gain the experience to spot these opportunities. Then you need patience to be able to wait for them to appear before executing your trades.

When I was starting out on my trading journey a full time trader told me “You can’t create good trades out of thin air.” “They are either there or they are not, just try to make the most of them when they appear.”

This sounded a little funny to me at first. But the more I learnt about trading the more this type of mindset makes sense.

You can’t force a good trade. Just because you lost your last trade doesn’t mean that laying the score in an Egyptian second division game for twice your usual stake is suddenly a good idea.

Keep Learning

After a while you will start to notice recurring themes in the markets that you are trading. Reactions to certain news, over reactions in some scenario’s, under reactions in others. The sports trading markets are constantly reacting to different bits of information and you can always learn from this.

Keep records of your own trading and note the instances that move the odds.

Do these instances create opportunity?

Are they likely to occur again?

Why did they happen?

Persistence Pays Off

There are going to be times when you make a mistake, where you lose money.

When I started sports trading and betting I thought I would be successful pretty quickly. I was wrong it took me a few years before I really understood how to make money from football trading.

It was from trial and error, reading lots of blogs, recording my trades, recording odds movement and chatting on forums. Eventually I started to see repeatable patterns which were profitable and I was only able to do this through persistence.

Manage Your Bankroll

When things are going well and every trade is a green one. It can be easy to get carried away and starting betting much larger amounts then you should be.

Over the long term things are always going to go perfectly. They will be losing trades, losing days, perhaps even losing months depending on your trading strategy and variance.

Making sure you keep your bankroll in tact is another huge factor in whether or not your going to make money in the long term.

Are you currently trading on Betfair, Betdaq or Smarkets?

Have any advice for new traders?

Comment below.

Betfair Scam – “Wallet Management”

Unfortunately scam artists are in every type of industry.

In sports trading one type of scam that is used to lure in potential victims is called “wallet management.”

What is wallet management?

“Wallet management” is a concept that really makes no sense at all.

Lets take a look at my exchanges with a so called “professional trader” that offers “wallet management”.

Betfair Scam

Basically a “Professional Trader” will approach showing you lots of nice winning screenshots and green screens. They will tell you that they are a profitable trader and are willing to offer their services.

The scam artist will ask you to transfer money to their account or platform. The scammer will then claim to use the account to make money via trading. Promising you a high percentage of the profits for doing this.

Scam artists will target someone that is interested in sports trading. They do this via social media such platforms like Twitter and Facebook. Forums and email messages are also places where scam artists might try to contact someone.

Most people will realize that any professional trader that is consistently making money from the betting exchanges won’t need any type of investment. A profitable trader can reuse their own winnings and scale up their betting. By paying out a large commission on somebodies investment they are taking that money out of their own pocket.

There is no reason for any real trader to offer a service such as the one detailed above. If anyone does approach you offering this service then be aware that it is a scam.

If you want to start profiting from sports betting and trading. I recommend this service which is low risk and consistently makes money

Jonas Gjelstad – High Stakes Poker To High Stakes Sports Betting

Jonas Gjelstad – High Stakes Poker To High Stakes Sports Betting

Who Is Jonas Gjelstad?

Jonas Gjelstad is a high stakes poker player who turned his attention to sports betting. Originally from Norway Jonas started playing poker at a young age.

Starting at low stakes sit and go tournaments before transitioning to heads up games. Jonas Gjelstad eventually Specialised in the game of PLO and quickly made his way to some of the higher stakes games online.

At the age of 20 years old he was appointed as an instructor for well known poker training site CardRunners.

Finding Value In Sports Betting

In the last few years Jonas has turned his focus towards sports betting.

Value betting was the approach that Jonas used initially to become a profitable sports bettor. Jonas stated that he would manually compare the odds between the sharp Asian bookmakers and soft European ones.

When the soft bookmakers offered greater odds then the Asian markets they would often become value bets after market movement. Jonas would take these value bets whenever they appeared.

Automating the process of finding value bets was one of the next steps in Jonas’s sports betting journey.

Jonas Gjelstad and some of his colleagues created a value betting tool which was later released to the public as Edgebet (which then later became Trademate.)

Finding himself limited from the majority of the soft bookmakers Gjelstad turned his attention to beating the sharper Asian betting markets. Applying what he learnt from studying the markets whilst value betting Jonas developed a way to profit from the sharper bookmakers.

In a video series which profiles Jonas Gjelstad’s sports betting activities he states that he turned an initial bankroll of $10k into $1,000,000 over 12 months time.

Whilst little is known about the way Jonas approaches the betting markets and how has been so successful. The way he has quickly progressed in both the poker world and sports betting world are pretty unheard of.

It will be interesting to see what the future brings for Jonas Gjelstad.

One thing is for sure he is obviously somebody who has mastered the art of gambling.

Resources

Jonas Gjelstad profile – video series

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

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Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Trading Strategy

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy

Goals are the most exciting aspect of a football match.

They cause the biggest odds movement and there are numerous strategies based around goals.

Laying the correct score in the second half is the strategy I am going to write about in this article.

When is the best time to lay the correct score?

Generally I like to the lay the score in the second half of the game in the final 30 minutes.

There are a few factors that I look for in a good lay the second half score trade.

Laying The Correct Score Tips - Betfair Strategy — Cup games are good for this strategy.

Urgency – There needs to a reason why a teams need to score and preferably as quick as possible.

One goal difference – I like there to be a one goal difference between the teams. Psychologically this can make a big difference to the way players react. One goal is always very attainable whether there are 20 minutes or 2 minutes remaining.

Home team losing/Cup game – These situations can create an urgency within a team to score. A rabid home crowd spur their team to push forward and can give a side that extra energy. It can also leave them open to the counter and exposed at the back as the pressure from fans builds.

Teams that generally score/Opposition stats – This is probably obvious but you want to look at teams that have a good goal scoring record at home. Also consider on average how many goals there opponents concede away from home.

Game Tempo – Being able to watch a game is an advantage as game tempo can be key.

Is the leading team looking to counter?
Are they wasting time using stalling tactics?
Is the referee stopping the game at every opportunity?
Are the crowd behind the home team? Changes in tactics/substitutions?

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy

Example

Last night there was a game between Liverpool and Southampton in the league cup semi final. Liverpool were the home side and found themselves down 0-1 on aggregate. It got to the 60 minute mark and the score was level at 0-0 with Liverpool needing a goal to have any hope of qualification.

Given the conditions of the game meeting the factors above and Liverpool’s tendency to score at home I entered a lay bet on 0-0 at 3.35.

It should also be noted that Southampton were missing there best defender Virgil Van Dijk and this season had conceded twice as many goals in the second half compared to the first. These were other factors that I felt increased the likely hood of a goal being scored.

Liverpool pushed hard for the goal but ultimately it was Southampton who scored in injury time on the counter. The lay bet was successful £28.53 was made after commission for a stake of £70.50.

I prefer to trade the match odds markets pre match and in the first half. The strategy above however is a good one to consider in the second half if the right conditions are met.

This strategy is basically an outright bet on a goal being scored. Like all betting strategies you need to consider correct bankroll management and game selection to be successful in the long term.

Hopefully this article on laying the correct score will have given you a strategy to consider when trading the second half of a football game.

Resources

https://www.soccerstats.com/

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

Check out our recommendations below.

Paulo Rebelo – The Millionaire Football Trader

Who is Paulo Rebelo?

Paulo Rebelo is a football trader who is quite well known in his native country of Portugal.

In Portugal he has appeared on national television several times and runs the popular betting/trading website https://www.academiadasapostas.com/

Paulo Rebelo - The Millionaire Football Trader — Picture courtesy of www.paulorebelotrader.com/en

At the age of 17 Paulo Rebelo began studying the stock markets. Before going on to study at university.

Rebelo notes that he left university after the first semester as he was disappointed by what was taught. He began to study economics and began to develop and test theories on the stock exchange.

Failing to get a job in portfolio management due his age, lack of experience and no degree Rebelo returned to university.

The Betting Begins

When Paulo returned to college his interest in sports betting began. Consistent results and profits were made from “simple statistical analyzes” in Paulo’s own words.

Sports trading became a major focus of his.

After about a year of betting Paulo Rebelo found Betfair. He realised that he could apply everything he had learnt from studying the financial markets to the Betfair markets.

Rebelo eventually developed his own database and created a model which was able to identify profitable odds in the Betfair markets.

Live trading was Paulo’s next focus and he writes “after identifying, analyzing and correction of some mistakes done, I managed to step-by-step profit with live games. When I started winning consistently I dedicated myself exclusively to trading live.”

There is quite a lot of material from Paulo Rebelo available online. Although it is not perfectly translated into English there are still some useful bits of information and insights to be read.

You can learn more about Paulo Rebelo in the links below.

Resources

https://www.paulorebelotrader.com/en/paulo-rebelo-diary/

https://www.youtube.com/user/SirPauloR

https://www.onlinebettingacademy.com/

References

https://www.paulorebelotrader.com/en/about-me/

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

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Accumulator Betting Tips – Can accumulators be profitable?

Accumulator betting profits

Is there a way of making long term profits from accumulator betting?

Accumulator’s are a bookmaker’s best friend they love them.

In fact you very rarely see a bookmaker highlighting a winning punters success. If however that punter hit a 16 team accumulator for £150,000 you might here about it.

Those bettors that are able to find value week in week out against a bookmakers odds over the long term. Will likely find themselves limited to pennies or unable to bet.

Accumulator betting profits — My weekend accumulator

Why then do bookmakers love accumulators?

Bookmakers love accumulators generally because it compounds their margins.

A bookmaker margin is basically the percentage of profit a bookmaker would make if the amount of money bet on all outcomes of a game were equally balanced.

For example if a bookmaker has a 5% margin on a game this would mean they would expect to make £5 for every £100 staked on the game. In a way this is similar to arbitrage betting if a bookmaker has a perfectly balanced book then they are guaranteed a profit no matter the outcome.

So bookmakers in general love accumulator bets because its compounds that margin for them with each selection. A 5% margin on a single bet becomes much more with each selection that you add.

Making a profit from accumulator betting

It is possible to make a profit from accumulator bets and like all methods of betting its about finding value.

I have written about using Asian bookmaker to find value bets with softbooks before. We can use this same approach when making an accumulator have a positive expectation.

For this approach we need to find two or more value bets with the same bookmaker. Then put them in an accumulator.

You can see from the above that Marathonbet have Osasuna at 7.10 whilst Pinnacle have them at odds of 6.61. The no vig odds are 6.74 which indicates Osasuna are a value bet.

Betting in this way is still going to be very volatile but if you are going to place accumulators bets you may as well look for value whilst doing it.

Accumulator betting profits

Using bookmaker promotion’s against them

The best way to make money from accumulator betting is by using bookmaker promotions against them. Oddsmonkey is an excellent matched betting service and has something called the “Acca Matcher” which was created just for this.

Accumulators are such a big money earner for soft bookmakers they want to entice people to bet on them. A popular promotion is “back 5 selections get a free bet if one loses.”

This offered by William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes alongside several other soft bookmakers.

Accumulator betting tips — Oddsmonkey’s Acca Matcher find the best value accumulators available

Selections from the bookmaker are found by Oddsmonkey which are close in price to the Betfair lay odds. This means generally they are close to the true odds.

The Oddsmonkey “Acca Matcher” then uses the Betfair odds alongside the bookmakers money back promotion to show you the expected long term value of placing that bet. There is also the option to lay these selections on the betting exchanges to guarantee small profits.

This process can also be done manually by searching for odds close to the Betfair lay price yourself. Oddsmonkey just enables you to do it quicker and works out the calculations for you.

Bookmaker’s accumulator promotions are a great way of creating accumulator bets with a positive expectation.

I hope this article has given you a few ideas on how to make money from accumulator betting. When used correctly it can be a good way of keeping under a bookmakers radar whilst still extracting some value.

Dobbing – Betfair Trading Strategy

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy

What is Dobbing?

Dobbing stands for “double or bust” it is a Betfair trading strategy used on the horse racing markets.

The Dobbing Betfair strategy involves backing a horse pre race and having a lay bet matched in-play at half the odds of the initial stake.

The aim of a Dob (double or bust) bet is to make a profit that is even to your stake essentially doubling it.

Lets take a look at an example of a potential Dob bet.

In the above image you can see that I have put in a potential back bet of £100 on Bonnie Gals at odds of 5.00.

I have also placed a potential lay bet of £200 at odds of 2.5. If both of these bets were matched you can see that this would equal a profit of £95.00 (£100 – 5% commission) across all outcomes.

If the lay bet is not matched in-play then you would lose your stake, this is where the bust part of the name Dob (double or bust) comes from.

Dobbing essentially works like a straight betting method where you are getting odds of 1.95 ( After 5% commission) on every bet.

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy

How to find a good Dobbing Horse?

The double or bust strategy is one that is quite popular so there are a number of good resources available online.

Patternform for example has an excellent page showing you the historical percentages for horses that have dobbed in the past.

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy — An example of the Patternform Dobbing overview.

This is a good starting point when looking for a horse that will potentially Dob in-play.

There are several factors to take into account when choosing horses that will be a successful Dob trade.

For example you might look at filtering horses that have historically dobbed 75% of the time, look at whether they favour specific courses, Are they likely to lead the race? Weather conditions? Do specific odds ranges work better?

The pace card is another excellent resource from Patternform which gives you an indication of likely front runners in a race.

There are a few different variants of this method with some people opting to try to take more then 100% profit on there stake and others taking less. The most common method however seems to be for people to aim for basically an even money bet minus the commission.

Dobbing can be a profitable angle to consider when looking at trading the horse racing markets and might be something to consider having in your trading arsenal.

Mastering Tennis Trading Review – An Expert’s Insight

Mastering Tennis Trading is a book written by respected professional tennis trader Dan Weston.

Dan Weston has written articles for Pinnacle and Matchbook. He also runs the site https://www.tennisratings.co.uk/ which has lots of good articles on tennis trading and betting.

Mastering Tennis Trading Review

The book mastering tennis trading is as the name implies all about trading the tennis markets on betting exchanges.

I don’t trade tennis myself but I always love to read how professional traders approach trading the betting exchanges. This book does a great job of that and has really given me the motivation to take a much deeper look at trading tennis in 2017.

Mastering Tennis Trading is a total of 117 pages long. It starts with a basic introduction to tennis trading and how to setup yourself up when you are trading. General aspects of the betting exchanges are also explained such as price increments, laying, liquidity etc.

After the general introduction different trading strategies and situations are discussed in detail. One recurring theme that I really liked about this book is the use of data to explain why a trade had or might have a positive expectation.

Mastering Tennis Trading covers quite a large number of trading situations with the main topics including

Pre-match trading
Projected service holds
Pre-match lay to back in-play
Backing favourites when losing
Laying bad servers
Pressure situations
Backing the server
Tiebreak trading
In-game trades
At the end of the first set
The deciding set
Dangerous situations
Psychology risk and bankroll management

So you can see from the above that this book is very thorough and covers pretty much all aspects of trading tennis.

Mastering Tennis Trading Review

Final Verdict

I really enjoyed reading this book and felt that I was getting expert advice from somebody that is trading the tennis markets profitably for a living. Mastering Tennis Trading does an excellent job of explaining the basics of trading tennis and then progresses to show well explained examples of how you can find profitable angles within the tennis markets.

This book gets a clear recommendation from me. It is well written, easy to follow and would add a huge amount of value to anyone that was looking to trade tennis on the exchanges.

It gets a five star rating from me.

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(This article features affiliate links. This means that if you choose to make a purchase, I will earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you. I use or have used any product I review. If I recommend them it is because I believe they are helpful, useful and offer value to their customers. Please do not spend any money on these products unless you feel they will give you value or that they will help you achieve your goals.)