Sports Betting Challenge
“You have to take a long term view“
This is a quote that you’ll hear over and over again from winning sports bettors.
If you want to be successful in sports betting, sports trading, poker.
Then you need to have a long term plan and not deviate from it every time you hit a losing period.
Making A Million – A Sports Betting And Trading Challenge
“Win or learn”
Is a saying popularized by John Kavanagh (Conor Mcgregor’s head coach.)
You either win and move onto the next goal, or you lose and learn how to improve.
From April 2017 to April 2018 I attempted to make £50k in year.
The idea was to use strategies and profitable services that I write about on this site.
To make a total profit of over £50,000.
At the end of the full year I made £25,236.
So ultimately I lost the challenge, however I did learn a few things.
- As the margins on matched betting offers are getting smaller. It’s taking a lot more time and effort to grind out a good yearly profit.
- Although profitable in both sports betting and trading. I stayed within my comfort zone and didn’t increase stakes throughout the year.
- I always under estimate variance.
- In order to increase my yearly profit. I need to increase turnover and look at other area’s where I can expect a positive return on my investment
Making a million pounds from sports betting and trading? ……..Sounds Realistic
So yeah after failing to make £50,000 in a year.
Attempting to make £1,000,000 seems pretty ludicrous right?
This £1,000,000 aim isn’t going to be attempted over the course of a year.
It’s a life time goal.
“It’s the long term process that counts”
Maybe it takes another 10, 20, 30, 40 years.
That’s ok, I enjoy gambling its one of my major interests.
Investing in sports betting and trading is something I really enjoy.
Setting this long term target is something that excites me. It makes it more enjoyable to write about and I imagine more interesting to read about.
If I achieve it and document the whole process how cool would that be.
The Making A Million Portfolio
Let’s take a look at then how I am going to try to make money long term from the sports betting markets.
This is a long term challenge so as and when I makes changes to the portfolio, I will update it.
I am going to split the portfolio into two parts.
There will be low risk sports betting/trading methods and strategies.
Along with higher risk sports betting/trading methods and strategies.
If you are a reader of this blog and my previous betting challenge.
Then it is likely you understand the low risk part of my portfolio pretty well.
So I will just give a brief summary of each one.
Matched betting is something that I have wrote quite a lot about on this blog.
If you are not familiar with matched betting then please read this matched betting guide.
Matched betting is almost risk free and it is a relatively stress free process.
You take advantage of bookmaker promotions, earn free bets and then lay off the free bets using betting exchanges in order to guarantee a profit.
Matched betting will be a base part of my portfolio for as long as possible. It is a very easy way of making small but consistent profits that really help to buffer the variance of the high risk parts of this betting/trading portfolio.
Subscription Cost – £12.50 a month (Annual Subscription)
Arbitrage betting again is something I have covered previously in this blog.
If you are not familiar with arbitrage betting then I suggest you click the image below and read my the ultimate guide to sports arbitrage betting.
Arbitrage betting in one of the simplest terms involves backing selections with bookmakers that can be layed at betting exchanges for lower.
You will also find arbitrage bets between bookmakers where you can bet every selection for a guaranteed profit.
I use arbitrage betting with bookmakers that have banned me from promotions.
For example Gentingbet today sent me an email saying that my account was no longer eligible for casino or sportsbook promotions.
This is an account that I will now label as an arbitrage account.
Arbitrage betting much like matched betting is a great way to buffer the variance of casino offers, sports betting and trading.
Pre Match Trading
My favourite type of trading is to trade an event before it starts. I trade football mostly but also big boxing matches and mixed martial arts fights.
The way I like to pre match trade is looking for obvious positions that have a much greater reward then risk.
For example when a team unexpectedly leave out one of their key players from their starting eleven. Think Harry Kane for Tottenham, Messi for Barcelona, Salah for Liverpool.
There will be big drifts in the odds of these teams if these players were left out. Which allow low risk profits to be made.
Higher Risk Portfolio
Ok so calling all of these high risk might be a little melodramatic.
But they are certainly higher risk then matched betting, arbitrage and my pre match trading strategies
Lets take a look at each part of the high risk portfolio.
Value betting shares a lot of similarities with arbitrage betting. In that you are looking for odds at bookmakers that are higher then the betting exchanges or the Asian bookmaker Pinnacle.
There is quite lot of data which shows that if your consistently able to do this in efficient betting markets then you will make a profit.
Quite often bookmakers will offer accumulators that fall into the category of a value bet. Often theses accumulator selections are at the same time so arbing them is not an option. However betting these plus ev accumulators over the long term has shown to be profitable.
Following Psychoff’s in-play trading has really given me an incentive to put more time into trading football in-play.
Previously I have used some first half football strategies to trade football. Psychoff has provided some excellent insight into how to effectively trade the second half.
So combining the two I have a pretty good framework for trading football.
The biggest issue for me personally is finding time to trade football games. Being a father of two young children means that finding a few hours on a Saturday to sit and trade isn’t always easy.
Which is why Psychoff’s trading alerts fit into my schedule really well, as they don’t require the same time commitment.
Exploiting plus ev casino offers were a big part of my attempt at making £50,000 in a year.
In the end they contributed a profit of £10,266 despite the fact that I opted not to do many of the higher value but higher risk offers.
Something that taking part in thousands of casino offers has taught me.
Is that variance can be brutal and you have to get used to periods where you seem to lose money hand over fist.
However given that casino’s seem to be a lot of bookmakers biggest earners. There are always casino offers to take advantage of.
I still expect casino offers to be a large part of my portfolio going forward.
Subscription Cost – £17.99 a month (Annual Subscription)
When it comes to tipsters and services. I have used quite a few in the past with some successes and some failures.
Currently there is one tipster that I am using in my portfolio.
The Basketball Geek is a basketball tipster that has a very impressive record and has so far delivered on its promise. Hopefully it continues to do so.
I will update my monthly progress towards making £1,000,000
Here are my total profits so far in an attempt to make over £1,000,000 in lifetime profits from sports betting and trading.
Total Made In December
Overall Profit Since The Challenge Began