Football Accumulator Betting – Can It Be Profitable?

Football Accumulator Betting, can it be profitable long term?

My earliest introduction to sports betting was watching my dad, betting slip in hand anxiously waiting for Saturday’s football results to come in.

Every now and again he would hit a decent sized winner but I remember most weeks were losers.

“If only Chelsea would have won, I would have made over 100 quid”

“Can’t believe Liverpool didn’t win, one short of 250 big ones”

“F****** Arsenal couldn’t even beat my Sunday league team, could have won close to a grand if it wasn’t for them.”

The above is the reality for the majority of punters that bet regularly on accumulators.

However there are ways to make your football accumulator betting profitable and we will cover that in this article.

Why Bookmaker’s Love Punters That Bet On Accumulators

There is a reason that bookmakers love this type of bet and that is because normally there is no value at all for the punter.

Whilst the bookmaker retains a huge edge.

Below is a video from Caan Berry which explains why accumulator bets in general are very poor.

To summarize the video.

Bookmakers love accumulator bets because it compounds the margin that they have on each bet.

What is a margin?

The bookmakers margin is the reason that they make a profit.

Football Accumulator Betting

Oddsportal highlight a bookmaker’s margin in the area payout.

You can see that most bookmaker’s take somewhere between a 5% to 1% margin on most big European football matches.

If we look at Pinnacle’s margin for example at 97.7%.

This means that if you were to back every outcome that Pinnacle are offering on the Lens vs Lille game you would lose 2.3% of your total stake.

So if we spread out £100 across all 3 outcomes

We would lose £2.30

In a perfectly fair market all outcomes would add up to 100% meaning that if you backed every outcome you would break even on all selections.

Any market that adds up to over 100% becomes an arbitrage bet, which means it is possible to back every outcome and secure a profit.

Football Accumulator Betting Margin

As Caan points out in the video. When an accumulator is placed with a bookmaker the margin that they have compounds with each bet.

You can see that by taking the fair prices of these events from the betting exchanges you get odds of 259.5.

Looking at the odds given by the sports book for the same accumulator you can see the odds are 190.5.

This is a pretty big discrepancy and highlights why bookmakers love punters that bet on accumulators.

In general they are very bad value for the punter.

Football Accumulator Betting – How To Win Long Term

The way to make money from sports betting is pretty simple.

It is all about getting value from the odds that you are taking.

This means that we need to take odds that indicate a higher percentage of an event occurring then the actual chance of that event occurring.

Let’s look at a very simple example.

England are playing the Faroe Islands and a bookmaker opens England at 2.0 (Giving England a 50% of winning the game.)

England Betting

99% of football fans would instinctively know that England’s chance of beating the Faroe Islands are better then 50% and those odds offer a huge amount of value.

England’s chances of winning that game would probably be closer to 90%.

This bet would obviously be huge value, as the odds offered don’t accurately represent the true probability of England winning the game.

Now unfortunately bookmakers very rarely make huge mistakes like this.

However they do make smaller mistakes and sometimes they will also offer promotions which make an accumulator a profitable bet.

Putting Multiple Value Selections Together

Let’s start with the easiest way to make profitable football accumulator bets.

Taking advantage of bookmaker boosts.

Profitable Football Accumulator Bets

The majority of the major European bookmakers offer boosted accumulators on almost a daily basis.

Above is this weekend’s boosted accumulator from Skybet.

It has Bournemouth, Brentford and Tottenham all to win at odds of 8.0.

Let’s have a look at how to determine a fair market price for this accumulator

One of the best way to determine this to look at the price currently shown on one of the betting exchanges. Betting exchanges are a good indicator of what the market feels is the fair price of a selection at that time.

Adding these prices together gives a good indication of what the fair price of the accumulator should be.

Tottenham Odds

The fair price is often between the back best price 2.06 and lay price 2.08.

For simplicity I take the lay price of each selection and input them into a accumulator calculator from the site aceodds.

You can see adding the 3 lay prices together gives out fair odds for the accumulator as 6.5.

Whilst Skybet are offering odds of 8.0.

This suggests that the accumulator offered is very good value and that by betting these type of boosts long term you will make money.

This is really the best way for the majority of people to make their football accumulator betting profitable.

Determining Value And Betting Them As An Accumulator

Just as a bookmaker’s edge compounds with each poor value selection.

Exactly the same happens to the sports bettor that is able to find profitable edges and combine them with other each other.

That profitable edge is compounded.

Now finding a profitable edge at a bookmaker is a topic for a completely other article.

From my own experience there are some area’s that are easier to find value in then others.

For example lower league football, corners markets, cards markets, player markets etc.

Are much easier to find good value bets in compared to the major 1x2 markets that often have millions of pounds bet on them.

Example

In the above accumulator a mixture of using a bookmaker’s promotions and finding value in the market created a profitable accumulator bet.

The bookmaker was offering the Chelsea vs Real Madrid game at a boosted 100% margin, so one selection was taken that was showing as the lay price on the betting exchanges.

Two tips were taken from a lower league English football tipster that had a profitable long term record.

Juventus and Slavia were both lay prices on the exchange.

Then on top of this the bookmaker in question offers a 15% boost on accumulators of 5 selections that are odds above 1.5

Combining the first strategy of using a bookmakers promotions and then also by also finding value in one of the less efficient football markets (lower league English football.)

Enabled a football accumulator bet that had a lot of value.

Odds were of 25 were offered for this selection when in reality the odds should have been closer to 20.

Football Accumulator Betting – Conclusion

In this article we have looked at why in general accumulator bets are not a good way to make money long term from the sports betting markets.

However we have also shown that in the right circumstances. Football accumulator betting can be a great way of extracting some value from a bookmaker.

Like all profitable betting strategies, successful football accumulator is about taking a calculated risk and only betting when the edge is in your favour.

 

Over The Last 4 Years I Have Made Over £100,000 Profit From The Sports Betting Markets.

Click Here To Learn About The Strategies I Have Used.

Best Football Prediction Sites For Betting 2021

Best football prediction sites

The football betting markets are are huge.

Billions of pounds are wagered every year on football, it is a sport where if you can find an edge.

Then that edge can make you a lot of money as we have seen from football traders such as Paulo Rebelo and Psychoff.

In this article we are going to take a look at the best football prediction sites for betting.

How useful are these sites when looking to make money from betting/trading on football?

Best football prediction sites

Best Football Prediction Sites For Betting

There are thousands of football prediction sites available on the internet.

However the vast majority are tipping websites that offer very little value. They give out predictions with very little analysis and are generally a poor resource if you are looking to find an edge.

So what are the best football prediction sites for betting?

 

In the above video.

Professional Betfair trader Caan Berry recommends infogol as a useful resource if you are attempting to make money from the football betting markets.

Seems like a good place to start, let’s take a look at what Infogol has to offer.

Best Football Prediction Sites – Pre Match Betting

Infogol

What makes Infogol stand out above the hundreds of other football betting prediction sites?

First off is the amount of data that is available on Infogol, it isn’t just the standard “we pick team A to win, bet here with Bet365” which you get with the majority of sites.

Best Football Prediction Sites

On Infogol there is quite a lot of data to dig into.

For instance you can look how teams are performing using the XG (expected goals) metric. There is also an expected league position ranking based around XG.

Both of these metrics can be used to give an indication if a team maybe under or over performing.

This is useful to know as there maybe some bias in the betting markets which could be exploited.

Infogol also have their own pre match model which uses expected goals alongside other metrics to assess how likely it is that a team will win.

Best Football Prediction Sites Infogol

You can also find all the usual data such as head to head stats, winning streaks, losing streaks etc.

However what sets Infogol’s pre match statistics, data and predictions apart from the majority. Is the expected goal models and depth of data that is available.

Blogabet

Another site that I use for finding useful information on pre match betting predictions is Blogabet.

It isn’t a statistical prediction site like Infogol.

Blogabet relies on its users to provide predictions. It is a tipster platform that is very popular and allows people to write up their analysis and make betting predictions.

Often you can get really good information on team news and specialists in the some of the smaller niche betting markets.

What I like about Blogabet is that there are a number of really good free betting tipsters. That often give out information that has not been fully accounted for yet in the betting markets.

Blogabet

This is the type of betting analysis I like to look at with Blogabet.

A site like infogol can give you a indication of when a team looks to have an advantage using statistical analysis. Whilst a site like blogabet can reveal information that might not be commonly known.

Combining the information from both is good way to find value in the betting markets.

Blogabet Tipster

Here is an example of the type of tipster I like to follow.

They have a 5% yield over 1683 bets which is a good sample size. This tipster does very well in the South American leagues being profitable in the Bolivian, Argentinian, Costa Rician and Ecuadorian leagues.

Blogabet allows you to take an in depth look at a tipsters record. Allowing you to see which leagues they are profitable in.

Which bookmakers they use and which bookmakers they are profitable with.

Oddsmath

For pre match betting Infogol and Blogabet are both excellent resources that I think are very valuable. An added resource that I like to use to track odds movement is Oddsmath.

The reason I like Oddsmath is that it gives me a visual representation of how odds have moved for various markets.

I find this useful as if I get some information on team news that maybe valuable. Using Oddsmath I can see if the market has reacted to this already.

Oddsmath use

Timestamps on the movement of odds allow me to see when the odds started to move. 

Whilst Oddsmath isn’t a predictions site it is an excellent resource that combined with Infogol or blogabet may give you an edge.

Combining all three resources could allow you to find a profitable betting strategy.

For example if Infogol’s model is showing there is value available at current odds. You can use this alongside a site like oddsmath.com . To see if that team are shortening in odds ( an indication they may be value.)

Along with checking team news and looking at blogabet.com to see if  there are any profitable tipsters that like the same selection or have additional information on the game.

 

Best Football Prediction Sites – In Play Betting

When it comes to finding a prediction site that could aid you with in-play betting.

There are a number of sites that track statistics such as number of shots, shots on target, corners, free kicks and possession.

Flashscore is a good example of a site that does the above and also notifies you of when a goal is scored.

The majority of betting sites such as Bet365, William Hill etc also provide this type of in-play analysis.

For in-play statistics again its Infogol that stands out.

They provide in-play goal maps which provides you with the time of the chance created, player name and the probability of a goal being scored. This gives a lot of added depth over the standard shots on/off target count that the majority of sites offer.

Infogol in-play stats

 

Infogol still provide the standard type of statistics that you see from the majority of other in-play statistics providers. However again infogol add a little more depth with the addition of blocked shots, goalkeeper saves, completed passes and total passes.

When it comes to the best football prediction site for in-play betting infogol stands out.

Making money from the football betting markets isn’t easy. If you are aiming find profitable football bets/trades then you are going to want to use some of the best resources available to you.

Have any other football prediction sites that are worth a mention?

Let me know in the comment section below.

Click Here To Visit Infogol

Click Here To Visit Blogabet

 

The Biggest Sports Bettors In The World – 3 Men That Risk Millions Betting On Sport

Recently I was speaking to a friend about sports betting. He asked me who is the “Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo” of the sports betting world.

It was an interesting question as who are the biggest sports bettors in the world?

The Biggest Sports Bettors In The World

Successful sports bettors don’t tend to glamour for the limelight.

They have their edges in the sports betting markets and make money from it. If they were to reveal their methods and how they make money from sports betting, the markets would react and they would no longer be profitable.

So there is “no world series of sports betting” or “sports betting champions league.”

There are however a few high profile sports bettors that are known among the media.

Billy Walters

The Biggest Sports Bettors In The World

Billy Walters is a big name in American sports betting. It is estimated that Walters has made tens of millions of dollars perhaps even hundreds of millions of dollars. 

Walters was originally for Kentucky. He moved to Las Vegas in the early 1980’s and formed his own betting syndicate.

Walters betting operation was first described in the book “The Smart Money” by Micheal Konik.

Within the book the author goes into detail about Walters (although a pseudonym is used) betting operation. How he used multiple people to get his bets on using multiple accounts.

Difficulties he faced in getting sports books to accept his bets. Alongside the lengths and planning he had to go through to be so successful.

Although he has been largely secretive about his betting operations. He has been covered on ESPN and had a small television segment made about him.

Billy Walters has long been known as one of the biggest sports bettors in Las Vegas. However has most recently been making headlines after being convicted of insider trading.

Tony Bloom And Starlizard

The Biggest Sports Bettors In The WorldTony Bloom is the owner of UK based betting syndicate “Starlizard.”

He is well known name among sharp sports bettors. It is estimated that Starlizard can have as much as £1 million staked on a single outcome of a football match.

Starlizard are known to run their betting operation with same devotion and analytics of a major hedge fund.

Officially Stalizard describe itself as a betting consultancy. Which uses complex statistical models to generate football odds that are sharper than those offered by the Asian bookmakers and betting exchanges.

Bloom isn’t just involved with sports betting and has many other business ventures.

In 2009 he became the chairman of his hometown club  after purchasing 75% stake in the club. Also investing £93 million into developing a new ground.

According to Business Insider UK the bulk of the money used in Stalizard’s operation comes from Tony Bloom. Described as a maths whiz.

He is a veteran gambler and has competed in some of the highest stake poker tournaments around. In the early 2000’s he was estimated to have made millions from setting up online bookmaker and poker websites.

Much like Billy Walters, Tony Bloom is not one for the public limelight. With most articles containing second hand information about his betting activities.

Bloom only chooses to talk with the media about his involvement in Bighton And Hove Albion.

Zeljko Ranogajec

The Biggest Sports Bettors In The World

Zeljko Ranogajec is rumoured to be one of the biggest gamblers in the world. It is estimated that his global annual turnover is more then $1 billion.

Born in Australia in a family of Croatian immigrants. Zeljko first success in gambling came from the game of blackjack.

Allegedly Zeljko Ranogajec turned a bankroll of a few hundred dollars into millions through advantage playHe has also had notable wins in the game of Keno winning $7.5 million and in 2011 was inducted into the blackjack hall of fame.

When it comes to sports betting Zeljko Ranogajec is rumoured to bet significant amounts of money on horse racing. It is reported that his turnover accounts for nearly a third of the total for Betfair in Australia.

Ranogajec does not give any interviews. A lot of the speculation that surrounds him comes from second hand information. As with most large scale sports bettors there is not much for him to gain from revealing information about his betting activities.

Who Are Biggest Sports Bettors In The World?

The three sports bettors above are thought to turnover hundreds of millions perhaps billions annually.

In truth though it is hard to know who the biggest sports bettors in the world are. As if you are profiting from sports betting on such a large scale it is in your interest to keep that knowledge to yourself. 

Some of the biggest sports bettor in the world may also not even be winning ones. I am sure there will a few rich oil merchants or Chinese businessman. Who bet huge amounts of money for thrills without the detailed analysis needed to be successful.

So whist little is known about the biggest sports bettors in the world.

There are at least a few individuals that rumoured to be beating the sports betting markets on a massive scale.

 

Interested in sports betting, matched betting, advantage play or trading?

Read my attempt at making £1,000,000 from sports betting.

 

Further Reading

How Billy Walters became sports most successful and controversial bettor

Inside Starlizard: The story of Britain’s most successful gambler and the secretive company that helps him win

Zeljko Ranogajec

 

 

 

 

5 Of The Best Sports Betting Blogs

There are a lot of sports betting blogs on the internet. With new ones being created on a daily basis.

Which ones are worth reading?

Here are the sports betting blogs which I like to keep an eye on.

Sports Betting Blogs – Which Are The Worth Reading?

Green All Over

Sports Betting Blogs

Although this blog has been around since 2008. I only discovered it a few months ago.

The blog is written by Cassini. An experienced sports bettor who writes frequently about the world of sports betting and trading. What I really like about this blog is the data which Cassini shares. There is a lot of really good information on this blog in relation to sports betting. Cassini shares historical trends. He writes about different concepts and theories of how to approach sports betting,

There isn’t a tonne of flash to this blog. But that is part of its charm for me. It is often written with humour and straight to the point. Cassini has a pretty distinct writing style.

Green All Over is a good read for anyone interested in sports betting.

Sports Betting Blogs – Australian Sports Betting Blog

Daily 25

Sports Betting Blogs

Daily 25 is a sports betting blog run by an Aussie named Steve. Initially the blog was about trying to make $25 a day from following betting tipsters. As his betting progressed Steve eventually changed that goal to $250 a day.

This is a really good and transparent blog about trying to make money from betting. It’s not all sunshine and rainbows. From reading you get a really good perspective on the realities of trying to make money from sports betting.

One aspect of this blog that I really like is how Steve uncovers the shady aspects of the sports betting world. Showing how tipsters manipulate betting records and how bookmakers track their customers.

It’s a blog that has been around since 2010 so there is a lot of content. It’s a really good blog to read all the way through if you have the time.

 

Pinnacle Sports

Sports Betting Blogs

The next one on the list isn’t exactly a sports betting blog. But it is worth highlighting. 

Pinnacle sports betting resources page has lots of excellent content regarding sports betting. They have a number of experts in different fields writing for them. For example Dan Weston the writer of Mastering Tennis Trading provides tennis articles. Also well renowned sports betting author Joseph Buchdahl is a frequent contributor. Who provides his usual detailed analysis in multiple articles.

The articles written are often well thought out and educational. Pinnacle sports really does something that no other bookmaker does. Educate their customers on how to approach sports betting more professionally.

If you are not already aware of Pinnacles betting resources page. It’s one you should bookmark. As there is a tonne of really valuable information on there.

Betfair Trading Blogs

The next two blogs are more related to Betfair Trading. However I really like the nature of these blogs as they feel more personal with both of the bloggers looking to improve their sports trading skills.

Runlike A Drain

Run Like A Drain Blog

Runlikeadrain is a blog written by a man named David. It covers his journey in the sports trading world as well as featuring poker. It is an interesting blog that goes through the ups and downs of trying to make money from sports trading.

Green Filly

Green Filly Blog

Green is an excellent blog written by a female ex jockey named Paula. The blog goes through her journey as she looks to make an income from Betfair trading. It has some really good reviews of sports trading courses that she has attended. Great blog for anyone who aspires to do something similar.

 

Who Are The Best Sports Betting Bloggers?

Those are five betting blogs that I enjoy reading. I imagine there are some hidden gems out there that I haven’t come across yet. If you have a sports betting blog or enjoy reading one that I haven’t highlighted here.

Put it in the comments section and I will add it to this list if its a good read.

 

Sports Betting Scams – 5 Scams You Need To Be Aware Of

Sports betting scams!

Its hard enough to make money from the sports betting markets as it is.

The fact that it is also a market that attracts conmen and scammers is also something that you need to be aware of.

I fell for a scam early in my betting career lets try and make sure it doesn’t happen to you.

Lets take take a look at some common sports betting scams that you need to be aware of.

Investing in a Sports Trading Fund Scam

First off I should mention that there are legitimate sports betting and trading funds.

But generally if you get approached by someone on social media looking for investment in a sports trading fund its going to be a scam.

5 Betting Scams

 

Here is a good example of this type of  sports betting scam.

It is somebody offering “wallet mangement.”

Basically what this scammer suggests is that you send them money or give them access to your betfair accounts and they will trade on your behalf. Giving you a percentage of his winnings for doing so.

Tennis betting Scam

So this is a bad idea for a lot of reasons.

Giving someone else access to your betting accounts or sending them money under the premise of “wallet management.”

Always puts you in a very bad position. They can just easily just keep the money and disappear or if accessing your account lose that money into there own account.

Also it makes zero sense for a profitable sports bettor/trader to take such small investment and payout so much profit. Surely anyone that is making money from sports betting/trading can increase their bankroll from the profits made.

Here is a high profile case similar to this regarding the “Betfair King” scammer.

Betfair King Scam

Investing In a Sports Arbitrage Fund Scam

Next up is a scam that is very similar to the first one however it is under the guise of investing in a sports arbitrage fund.

Sports arbitrage betting is a great way to make money from the sports betting markets and I have written about it in depth here.

However again there is almost no reason at all as to why somebody would require investment for sports arbitrage.

Here is an article regarding the company the “Winning express” which pretended to a sports arbitrage betting fund.

Winning Express Scam

Sports Arbitrage Scam

The company was promoted by ex-Premiership footballers Steve Claridge and David Hirst it offered investors large, risk-free returns.

Investors in The Winning Express were guaranteed a 2% tax-free interest per month. 

The Winning Express was allegedly run by a man named Graham Bradbury. Bradbury had previously been banned from being a company director for running a pyramid scheme.

Winning Express eventually closed in 2016.

This was a sports betting scam that left a lot of its “investors” being owed large sums of money.

Affiliate Tipsters

I have covered affiliate betting tipsters like Badman Betting previously however tipsters such as these are still pretty prevalent in the sports betting industry.

There are tipsters out there that basically work alongside bookmakers.

They do this by sending bookmakers new customers and getting paid a percentage of their losses.

This basically gives them an incentive to provide poor value tips in order for them to get make money.

Often you will see these types of tipsters running silly challenges such turn “£10 into £1000 in 10 days.”

Another favourite is to tip big accumulators which again tend to be very poor value.

Affiliate Betting Scam

Is this an outright sports betting scam?

Maybe, maybe not?

However I don’t think it benefits betting punters and i do think its pretty unethical as I know most people that follow these type of tips aren’t aware that those providing them recieve commission on reffered player losses.

Fake Betting Review Sites Scam

Now this is an interesting one and probably one you might not be aware of.

Its a scam I wasn’t ware of until I got duped by it and then did my homework.

Last time I wrote about these guys they pursued legal action so I can’t name them exactly (don’t want to waste time/money on legal advice.) 

However I can point out red flags to look out for.

Fake Betting Review Scam

 

I’ll start with how I fell for this scam.

Quite a few years ago I was looking on a betting review site and came across a betting product that I had never seen before. It had rave reviews and the site was also recommending a matched betting product that I was already using.

That gave me some confidence that they were legitimate.

So I bought the product and it was terrible…………………….. really really terrible.

Basically it was the martingale system on sports betting………………… and that was it.

I spent £50 for that.

Immediately I felt incredibly stupid and asked for a refund, which was denied.

Paypal wouldn’t issue a refund as it was a digital product.

Hindsight

After digging a bit deeper I came to realise that the review site was created by the same person that was creating these scam betting products.

I left a few comments on the fake review site to see if they would show up.

They never did.

I also went on a few betting forums and asked if anyone else had been duped by this site.

Quite a few people had exactly the same experience as myself so it became clear what this person was doing.

He was giving his own products favourable reviews on his “review site” and creating fake profiles/comments to give out the impression that they offered value and were profitable.

Then choosing to block any real feedback on the product he had created.

In hindsight I should have questioned why no other review site was recommending it?

If it was really as good as the review site made out then much like matched betting it would have been everywhere.

Sometimes you just have to learn from these things and move on.

So yeah this was quite an elaborate sports betting scam but its one to be aware of.

Buying “Fixed Games Information” Scam

“Hey bro you wanna get some information on a fixed game? £50 and it yours”

“I’m ok bro thanks.”

Fixed game scam

I still get emails/social media messages like these from time to time.

Sometimes its a dude from Africa ,sometimes Asia, sometimes Eastern Europe.

The old paying for information on a fixed game scam.

Now do fixed games in football and other sports exist?

Yes they certainly do but do these criminal syndicates that organise them go around harrassing people on social media or through email looking to sell that information.

Probably not.

Again just using some common sense, if you had information on a fixed game then you could make a tonne of money betting on it.

It would make little sense to go around offering that information and potentially alerting more people to the fact the game is fixed.

Learn Real Methods For Making A Profit From The Sports Betting Markets

There we have it 5 betting scams that you should be aware of.

Although there are a lot of ways to lose money in the sports betting markets it is not impossible to make a decent income with the right strategies.

If you are interested in making a profit from the sports betting markets I have written two guides to help you do so.

 

Why Social Media Tipsters Want You To Lose

If you like to bet on sports and are on social media you will have probably noticed there are a huge amount of tipsters and challenges going on.

One of the most common challenges is to take a relatively small amount of money say £10 and attempt to turn it into a £1000. This is done by rolling over your stake with each bet until a profit of £1000 is made.

Why Social Media Tipsters Want You To Lose

Challenges like these have become very popular with a number of these pages having hundreds of thousands of followers. Now I understand why these challenges are popular its like buying a lottery ticket. You have a small initial layout with the potential for a big win. One big thing a lot of these tipsters and pages fail to mention is they want you to lose.

Social Media Tipsters

This is how they make money. The business model for these twitter tipsters or facebook pages is to make an income as a bookmaker affiliate. Enticing new customers and being given a share of their losses is where their profit is made. Normally it will be between 10-30% of a referred players losses.

Whilst they might “boom” every winning tip and tell you they have made thousands in the past two weeks. Over the long term they only make money if you lose. Do you really want to follow betting tips from someone that profits only if you consistently lose? Seems like that would be a bad idea.

Social Media Tipsters

You will consistently see these types of tipsters pushing bookmaker sign ups. Claiming big profits whilst never recording past results and highlighting wins but barely acknowledging losses. 

In conclusion following these types of challenges and tipsters is not going to make you money in the long term. Possibly you could get lucky and turn £25 into £1000 or you might go on to lose £2500 by following a 100 of these challenges that don’t come off. The only people that are making money from these challenges are the guys running these twitter accounts and facebook pages. Not the people following them.

Is it possible to make money from sports betting?

So can you actually make money from sports betting?

Yes you can but it isn’t as easy as following some dude who says he will turn £10 into a £1000 in 10 bets.

It is said that only 1% of people betting on sports make a profit. If you compare the popularity of these tipsters and pages to the small amount of people following websites/blogs that give out solid sports betting advice. It’s easy to why the overwhelming majority of people lose money betting.

Social Media Tipsters
Matched betting profits from April 2017

If actually making money from sports betting and trading does appeal to you. An effective and profitable approach to take is matched betting. 

I have written an article detailing how to make money from matched betting here. This approach uses bookmaker promotions to guarantee a profit. There are hundreds of these offers available and if you are looking to make some extra money this is a great way to do it. It is probably the most consistent way to make money from sports betting.

Something else you may want to consider is looking into betting exchanges and sports trading. I have outlined how betting exchanges function is this article. In general they will offer you much better odds. They differ to bookmakers as they don’t make money on player losses. Rather they take a commission on winning bets or stakes which means that they also don’t ban winning accounts.

Please share this article if you know people that are following these shady social media tipsters. So at least they become aware they are betting on the advice of people that want them to lose.

If you want to start profiting from sports betting and trading. I recommend this service which currently contributing the biggest profit in my 50k in a year challenge.

 

How to become a millionaire sports trader and bettor!

If you came to this article for a strategy that is going to make you unlimited amounts of money from Betfair. I’m sorry but you might be disappointed.

What I wanted to do in this article is address two things.

  1. Show how easy it is to look like your staking huge amount of money on your bets/trades.
  2. Write about why learning about the process of a good trade is more important then seeing winning screen shots.

How to become a millionaire sports trader and bettor!

millionaire sports trader and bettor

In the above image there is a trade I made this morning just as an example for this article. I backed a horse called Kastani Beach at odds of 6.8 for a £5 stake. You can see that I stand to win £27.58 should the horse win and lose £5.00 if it doesn’t.

Now look what happens if I make some manual adjustments.

millionaire sports trader and bettor

Now suddenly I am risking £5 to win £2700.58. If you look at the image however not much else has changed. 

Only one bet has been matched the back bet at 6.8. My lay bet at 6.6 hasn’t been matched either so why has my profit margin increased so much?

How to fake a trade or betslip

The process only takes a few seconds. It is very easy to appear that you staking or winning much more then you are in reality.

1.You highlight your potential winnings.

2. Right click and select inspect.

3. Find and highlight your stake amount .

4. Change it to whatever amount you want.

millionaire sports trader and bettor

That’s how easy it is to look like you are a hugely successful trader or sports bettor. You can do this on any sports book and other exchanges. Its why big green screens are not very useful unless there is some context behind them.

Why do people do this?

It attracts attention and builds social media presence. It generates more traffic.

Look at the popularity of a guy like Dan Bilzerian for example. 

I have tested this myself. If I post up an article on social media with a winning trade or some profitable results attached. It will generally generate much more traffic then if I used a generic image of a football match for example. 

When people see winning trades they can envision themselves doing the same thing. You see some of these fake twitter tipsters with 100k followings that offer nothing of value at all. They don’t educate their followers or provide actual profitable bets. But they post up huge betslips, funny memes and have a £10-£10,000 challenge.

If you are looking to get an insight into being a better sports trader/bettor. Follow people that actually provide an insight into the process of making good trades or bets. Ignore the big greens and winning betslips unless there is a useful explanation behind them.

millionaire sports trader and bettor

Whilst I was writing my trade got matched.

Made my profit target for the day, I’m off to Monte Carlo for the afternoon on my private jet.

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

Check out our recommendations below.

 

 

Dobbing – Betfair Trading Strategy

Trade horses pre race

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy

What is Dobbing?

Dobbing stands for “double or bust” it is a Betfair trading strategy used on the horse racing markets.

The Dobbing Betfair strategy involves backing a horse pre race and having a lay bet matched in-play at half the odds of the initial stake. 

Dobbing Betfair Strategy
Double or bust

The aim of a Dob (double or bust) bet is to make a profit that is even to your stake essentially doubling it.

Lets take a look at an example of a potential Dob bet.

Dobbing Betfair Strategy

In the above image you can see that I have put in a potential back bet of £100 on Bonnie Gals at odds of 5.00.

I have also placed a potential lay bet of £200 at odds of 2.5. If both of these bets were matched you can see that this would equal a profit of £95.00 (£100 – 5% commission) across all outcomes.

If the lay bet is not matched in-play then you would lose your stake, this is where the bust part of the name Dob (double or bust) comes from.

Dobbing essentially works like a straight betting method where you are getting odds of 1.95 ( After 5% commission) on every bet.

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy

How to find a good Dobbing Horse?

The double or bust strategy is one that is quite popular so there are a number of good resources available online.

Patternform for example has an excellent page showing you the historical percentages for horses that have dobbed in the past.

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy
An example of the Patternform Dobbing overview.

This is a good starting point when looking for a horse that will potentially Dob in-play. 

There are several factors to take into account when choosing horses that will be a successful Dob trade.

For example you might look at filtering horses that have historically dobbed 75% of the time, look at whether they favour specific courses, Are they likely to lead the race? Weather conditions?  Do specific odds ranges work better?

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy
Patternform Pace Card

The pace card is another excellent resource from Patternform which gives you an indication of likely front runners in a race.

There are a few different variants of this method with some people opting to try to take more then 100% profit on there stake and others taking less. The most common method however seems to be for people to aim for basically an even money bet minus the commission.

Dobbing can be a profitable angle to consider when looking at trading the horse racing markets and might be something to consider having in your trading arsenal.

Matched Betting to Sports Trading – What’s Next?

Matched Betting to Sports Trading

Matched Betting to Sports Trading – What’s Next?

More and more people are moving from matched betting into sports trading. 

Matched betting is a great way for anyone to get involved in the sports betting and trading markets as it is the easiest way of making money. Eventually bookmakers remove any bonus eligibility from your account or in some cases (Boylesport) close your account all together.

Matched betting is a great introduction into sports trading as it shows people that money can be made from the bookmakers. You should also become familiar with the betting exchanges and how they function.

Matched betting to sports trading
Matched betting is an easy way of making money. Whats the next step?

Life after matched betting what’s next?

  • Value Betting

First off you should still have a lot of bookmaker accounts left. There is still the potential to make more money from these accounts and value betting is probably one of the best ways of doing it.

By exploiting the fact that many bookmakers move their odds slower then the sharper Asian bookmakers such as Pinnacle we can find odds that offer good value.

  • Sports Trading

At this point you are familiar with the betting exchanges and are looking to start making money trading. There are lots of potential options with sports trading.

Which sport? Pre match or in play? Lay drifting horses? Back potential steamers? Lay low odds in Tennis?

Its important to find your focuses and break down the sport that suits you best. Which sports are you most knowledgeable about? How much time have you spent looking at the markets? What have been your most profitable markets?

  • Sports Betting

Matched betting might have allowed you to build up a big enough bank to consider going into sports betting. 

One way of taking on sports betting is to build up a portfolio of proven profitable tipsters and looking at sports betting as a long term investment.

Recommended Reading

What is value betting?

Sports trading which sport?

Sports betting as an investment

 

Matched betting to sports trading
Its ok to lose sometimes

Matched Betting to Sports Trading

Major differences?

  • You will lose sometimes

This is the big difference from matched betting to sports trading and betting. If you have been matched betting you will be used to constantly racking up the profits but trading and betting is a different animal.

Losing money is never pleasant but it is inevitable that at some point you will lose money and you have accept this as part of the game.

If you look on social media you tend to see lots of nice screenshots of winning trades or people going 5/5 in sports betting for the day. If you are not experienced this might give you the impression that sports bettors and traders rarely lose but in truth everybody has losses.

Once you accept that losses will happen it makes it much easier to find long term profitability as you aren’t constantly changing strategies, sports or tipsters.

  • Learn about variance 

This ties into the above buts it is really important to learn about variance.

Variance in the short term can make us believe an unprofitable strategy is profitable and a profitable strategy unprofitable.

If you start to build an understanding of variance then it diminishes the stress and shock of losing periods or losing trades.

Recommended Reading

Understanding variance

Learning from your losses

 

 

 

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Positive Variance

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Variance can be defined as the expectation of the squared deviation of a random variable from its mean, and it informally measures how far a set of (random) numbers are spread out from their mean.

If you struggled with that don’t worry your not alone. This definition doesn’t help those of us that are not very mathematically minded but there is a simpler way of looking at variance.

Variance is one of the key reasons why a lot of people struggle with sports trading and betting. It is something that I myself struggled with a lot when I first started sports trading and betting.

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting
Heads or Tails?

If we look at a coin flip there are two outcomes heads and tails. An equally weighted coin means that there is a 50% chance of it landing on either heads or tails. The nature of variance however means that if  we flipped a coin a 100 times it may land on heads 63 times and tails 37 times or heads 44 times and tails 56 times.

The results of a 100 coin tosses would not be exactly 50/50 very often.

We know however that with a fair coin toss the odds are 50/50. With a greater volume of coin tosses the number of heads and tails recorded should move closer to evens.

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting
Variance isn’t always negative and we sometimes do better then expected.

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Variance exists in sports trading and betting. There are several variables that we need to take into account when we looking at variance in our own betting and trading results.

We need to be aware of the odds that we betting/trading, the sample size of results that we have and what our expected edge is in the market we are trading or betting in.

It is important to develop a better understanding of variance as a sports bettor or trader. When we don’t understand something it often to leads to feelings of frustration and anger.

These feeling often have a negative effect on our sports trading. By breaking down and understanding the different aspects of sports trading we become better more profitable traders.

I am not an expert in probability and statistics it is something I am constantly learning about and trying to develop a greater understanding of. Luckily we live in an age were we can easily access articles and books published by experts in these fields.

Here is some recommended reading if you want to develop a better understanding of variance.

Its all about variance

Luck vs skill in sports betting