February marked month 107 and March was month 108 in the Making a Million Challenge. A profit of £1564 was made in the first month of the year and the prior overall P/L was +£213,373.
Given we have two months worth of results, let get into it!
Value Betting Results
Value betting has been the main strategy that I have used for a number of year, it encompasses a few different ways to find value bets. The aim is simply to back odds that are higher then they should be, consistently enough to make a long term profit.
The results for value betting February were not positive.
Profit/Loss: -£1507
(Adjusting stakes to win £100-£150 per bet).
I record profit/loss daily by each individual bookmaker or exchange.
March was better month returning a profit, however it was small and has contributed to a slow start for the year.
Profit/Loss: +£788
Here are the strategies used:
- Each Way Value – using Oddsmonkey and Betting Mastermind – On any accounts that still let me bet
- Inflated Odds on the exchanges – for example Bet365 super boosts on smaller markets (lay money pushing odds higher then they should be)
- Shop bets – On the rare occasion I use shops to get bets down. Usually this for golf selections (using this strategy)
- Bet Hero – This is value betting software that is especially useful for prop bets. Uncovers a lot of value in smaller bookmakers I haven’t used previously (casumo group etc). Can also be used on the betting exchanges.
- UFC Bets – Using my own analysis.
No longer using:
- Sharp Betting – Mainly used Skybet for this but found little usage for other bookmakers and my exchange experiment failed.
- Tilt The Odds – May get back to using this eventually, long losing stretch and lack of patience with backing high odds lucky 15s (high variance) are reasons for stopping.
Horse Racing Betfair Strategy Results
This strategy is really struggling at the moment and I took some time off to re-evaluate it. It has been break even now since last July and such a long stretch without any profit is obviously pretty frustrating.
Below is the strategy in full since I first implemented on the 5/11/2024, up until today writing this blog 6/4/2026.
The graph shows the daily results of the strategy (not each selection).
Overall the graph looks pretty good, however as you can see from around day 200 to 491 the strategy is breakeven. Due to this I am continuing the strategy however I am going to start tracking each selection (again) and make sure it is still consistently beating the BSP. Also the strategy had previously shown to be profitable at BSP but for now I am only taking morning prices.
Feb Profit/Loss: -£36
(Staking £10 per bet).
March Profit/Loss: +£138
Total Made in Feb 2026
Total = -£1594
Total Made in March 2026
Total = +£1126
Overall Profit Since The Challenge Began (108 Months Ago)
+£212,905
False Start
The year didn’t get off to the best start. Profits were minimal through the first few months, although writing this now in early April, things have improved slightly with around an extra £1,000 made (year stands around +£2500). Even so, it’s still well below my usual expectations.
These periods are always frustrating, but they’re also part of the process. I’ve taken time to review my strategies, and I’m confident things will turn around soon. More often than not, it’s about riding out the variance and protecting your bankroll.
That said, I’ve made some mistakes, particularly with a few larger bets on UFC fights.
Big positions on Max Holloway against Charles Oliveira and Ante Delija ended up costing me. Coming into the year, my goal was to be more aggressive in combat sports betting, and in both cases I believed there was strong value. In reality, Holloway was dominated on the ground, and Delija—despite nearly finishing his opponent in the second round—looked like a fairly mid-tier heavyweight. Based on my previous analysis, I had rated him much higher.
Moments like this are a reminder that even well reasoned bets can be wrong.
I think one of the biggest traits that separates long-term winners is the ability to keep grinding regardless of short-term results. Losing day after day is mentally exhausting. It gives you a real sense of what problem gamblers might go through, the constant hope that one good day will turn everything around.
Fortunately, I’ve experienced enough of these swings over the years to stay disciplined. But if this had been my first couple of months in value betting, I honestly don’t know if I would have stuck with it.
As always appreciate you reading, hope your start to the year was a profitable one!
