5 Betfair Trading Strategies 2024 – From Five Successful Sports Traders

Finding Betfair Trading strategies that works can be tough.

Making money from Betfair or any any betting exchange in general is not easy. I am sure many people dream of trading on Betfair for a living

Can it be done?

Yes of course it can.

Here are 5 Betfair trading strategies, from 5 successful sports traders to help you find an edge.

Betfair Trading Strategies 

Number 1 – Steve Howe – Pre Race Swing Trading


Steve Howe is the owner of the educational sports trading blog itsamugsblog.

Focusing on trading the horse racing markets itsamugsblog provides some of the best free sports trading advice available on the internet.

Steve’s specialty is swing trading the horse racing markets on Betfair.

Swing trading involves looking for larger movements in odds before the start of a race. The aim is to lay a selection and back it at higher odds or to back a selection and lay it at lower odds.

Trading in this way allows you to hedge your bet across all outcomes and secure a guaranteed profit no matter the outcome.

Betfair Trading Strategy Horse Racing

Countless examples of Steve Howe swing trading the horse markets profitably can be found on his youtube page.

If you can master pre race swing trading the horse racing markets then there are multiple opportunities everyday to make money.

Betfair Trading Strategies – Number 2

Psychoff – Football Trading Late Goals


When I first started trading on Betfair I heard the name Psychoff a few times.

He was almost like some mystical figure. That came made a tonne of money football trading, then disappeared. Leaving behind a video showing how he made $202,257 in 3 months.

Well Psychoff eventually reemerged and so did his apparent ability to make large sums of money football trading.

Psychoff Strategy

One awesome thing about Psychoff is he gives out trading advice on twitter from time to time. Although Psychoff uses a variety of trading strategies.

On twitter the tips that he usually gives out are to lay the correct score or back the overs market in football. Usually quite late on in the second half.

If you have followed Psychoff on twitter then you will know he has an uncanny ability to predict when a goal is coming.

So there is sports trading strategy number two.

Keep on the lookout for those late goals.

Betfair Trading Strategies – Number 3

Paulo Rebelo – Contrarian Betting

Official Site

Contrarian betting is when you looks to wager against the crowd. It is a concept that has been around for a long time.

The general theory is that the majority of the public like to follow the crowd. In betting the behaviour is no different and this can lead to certain situations where opposing the crowd can be profitable.

Now Paulo Rebelo is a renowned football trader on Betfair using a variety of different trading methods. He didn’t invent contrarian betting however fairly recently he showed an excellent example of finding value from this method.

Paulo Rebelo Strategy

Winning a sum of 167,225 Euros by backing under 0.5 goals at half time in the Crystal Palace vs Man City game. This was at a time when Man City had been beating every side in front of them. Going without a goal less draw for 8 months before they met Crystal Palace.

Reading the English translation of Paulo Rebelo’s breakdown.

Which you can read here.

Its seems that Rebelo believed that at half time odds of 7.4 for the game to finish 0-0 offered lots of value.

Based on what he had seen in the first half. He knew that these odds would have to move quickly and felt that the confidence in Crystal Palace players would increase as time went on.

Video proof of Man City vs Crystal Palace Trade

This is an excellent example of when it is profitable to go against the crowd and take a contrarian betting stance.

Betfair Trading Strategies – Number 4

Caan Berry – Front Runners In Horse Racing

Official Site

Caan Berry is a renowned horse racing trading. Using a variety of different Betfair trading strategies to profit from the horse racing markets.

One of the simpler strategies that Caan Berry uses is to identify strong front runners in a race and look to profit from them taking a prominent position early on in a race.

Caan will often highlight potential front runners on both his facebook and twitter pages.

Back To Lay Strategy

There is an excellent article based around the back to lay front runners betfair trading strategy on Caan’s site.

Looking to trade front runners in the horse racing markets is a great beginners strategy. Given that it is fairly straight forward method.

If you are looking to start profiting from the horse racing markets then this could be a great strategy to look at.

Caan has also produced some excellent educational products aimed at people looking to trade the horse racing markets.

Click Here For Our In Depth Review Of Caan’s Horse Racing Video Pack.

Betfair Trading Strategies – Number 5

Ryan Bruno – Pre Match Trading


“Wait a minute, your putting yourself in with some of biggest Betfair Traders around?”

“What a f****** ego maniac”

Is what you might be thinking.

True I am not a top of the food chain sports trader.

However if you do read my Making A Million From Sports Betting And Trading Challenge. Then you’ll know that I do actually make a profit from my trading.

Which in turn I suppose makes me a successful sports trader.

That’s right f*** you buddy.

Yeah anyway Betfair trading strategy number five.

My personal favourite pre-match trading.

Betfair Trading Strategies

The simplest way to pre match trade the football markets is by reacting to team news. It doesn’t require a huge amount of skill.

You need a good knowledge of the teams that are playing and some patience. 

Cup games are often an excellent opportunity for pre match trading. As the market is often unsure of the first eleven that is going to be on the field.

This is because some managers use cup games as an opportunity to rest key players or give youth players a shot.

Chelsea Example

In the above example Chelsea were due to play Newcastle at home in the FA cup. There were priced at 1.41 before the announcement of the first eleven.

A quick look at oddsportal historical data shows me that Chelsea were priced much lower then 1.41 when playing at home to teams of similar ability to Newcastle.

This tells me along with experience that should a strong Chelsea side be named then the odds on Chelsea would shorten.

Chelsea did name a strong side so I backed them as quickly as possible at 1.41 and layed them once they had reached 1.34.

This enabled me to secure a guaranteed profit of £52.31

Below is a more recent example of profitable pre match trade.

If you can learn pre match trading then it can be a great low risk strategy to use.

There you have it 5 Betfair Trading Strategies From Five Successful Sports Traders. 

If you are looking to make a profit from your sports trading then these methods may provide some value.

Over The Last Few Years We Have Reviewed Several Betfair Trading Services.

Below Are The Best Betfair Trading Products On Offer.


Caan Berry Video Pack Review





Affiliate Disclaimer

(This article features affiliate links. This means that if you choose to make a purchase, I will earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you. I use or have used any product I review. If I recommend them it is because I believe they are helpful, useful and offer value to their customers. Please do not spend any money on these products unless you feel they will give you value or that they will help you achieve your long term goals.)

4 Football Trading Strategies 2024 – Profitable On Betfair

Football betting strategy 2

4 Football Trading Strategies

Football betting is a huge global market. It attracts billions of pounds in turnover and is often one the first sports that new bettors try to make money from.

People are always looking for football trading strategies that actually work.

Especially with the growing number of bookmakers limiting and closing accounts.

In this article we are going to look at using strategies on Betfair and other betting exchanges. Which allow  you to approach football betting in a way that is not available with normal bookmakers.

Which betting strategies actually work?

What are the best football betting strategies?

Caan Berry recently put out a video related to three football trading strategies you can use for the live betting markets. I thought it would be interesting to cover these strategies and look at the merits, potential dangers and situations where you could use these strategies effectively.

You can view the video below.


Football Trading Strategy 1 – Market Overreactions

The first strategy that Caan mentions in the video is taking advantage of overreactions in the market. Specifically mentioning the market reaction after a goal is scored.

When a goal is scored this is often a point where traders will look to exit their position.

For example if someone has layed the over 2.5 goals market at the start of the game. Their trading plan might be to hedge the trade for a profit after 20 mins if there is no goal. If a goal is scored then they will exit the strategy for a loss.

In this scenario if an early goal is scored. That trader is often going to exit that trade without considering the value of the odds that they are are backing. 

This takes advantage of panic in the market.

Football Betting Strategy 1

So in this example the trade would be to lay the over 2.5 goals market straight after a goal is scored. Then exit a few minutes later as the market corrects and the odds drift.

A strategy I have seen used with this type of trade was to hold the trade for 15 minutes before hedging for profit. 

Obviously the danger with this type of trade is that you open yourself up another goal being scored before you exit the trade. 

So although this is a strategy that will generate a lot of small wins, when you do lose it is going to be for more.

If you are using this strategy you have to acknowledge the risk vs reward and as always make sure you have a solid staking plan. 

It is not a strategy to use for every game.

You should always do your research and record when you see the optimal conditions for type of trade. This will allow you to anticipate in the future the best situations for this trading strategy.

Match Odds Market Strategy

Caan suggests in the video using this strategy in the match odds market.

In the match odds market you have the added upside of the opposing team scoring a goal whilst you are waiting for the market to correct itself.

It would make sense to use this football trading strategy when there is a heavy favourite that has taken the lead. Market’s like this tend to have more recreational money in the market.

When you have more recreational money in the market, you have a lot more traders that are not going to be assessing the value of the odds available. They will exit positions regardless of the odds being value or not.

The potential downside of the trade is again the danger of a goal against you whilst you try to scalp a few ticks.

However if you can find opportunities laying at shorter odds. Then the potential profit of a goal coming in your favour will yield a greater profit then a loss.

Football Trading Strategy 2 – Scalping Time Decay

The second strategy that is discussed in the video above is taking advantage of time decay.

As time moves forward in a football game, markets have to adjust to the changing probabilities of the games outcomes.

So for example if Man Utd are leading 1-0 against Brighton and are priced 1.17 on the 60th minute mark. If no other goal is scored then this price will gradually move to 1.01 before the end of the game.

The same has to happen for every other market in the match.

Football betting strategy 2

Here are a few pointers to use this strategy successfully.

  • You need fast live feed for pictures – You don’t want to be lagging behind every other trader and miss key moments in the game.

  • Use market panic to your advantage – If the market heavily favours something to happen odds can sometimes stall. For example a heavy favourite is losing by 1 goal and market expects them to score. However as the game approaches the last 10-15 minutes odds movement can accelerate due to market panic.

  • React to game tempo – Something else to consider is the tempo of the game, is the referee regularly stopping it, players time wasting, faking injury etc

This is a very solid strategy.

During the 2018 World Cup renowned football trader Psychoff gave out free trading advice. He used the above strategy several times successfully in both the goal markets and the match odds markets. 

Obviously with any scalping strategy you are always at the mercy of a goal going against you.

However when using this strategy in the match odds market. There will be times when a goal will be scored to your advantage.

Like all betting/trading strategies it is about finding the situations that suit the strategy and provide value. Rather then trying to use the same strategy for every situation.


Football Trading Strategy 3 – Parallel Market Intent

The next football trading strategy Caan outlines is parallel market intent.

This basically means looking at markets in the future. Which are currently related to the one that is happening at that moment.

Let’s say for example Juventus are playing on Wednesday night in the Champions league against Liverpool. During the game Cristiano Ronaldo (The most important player in the Juventus team) gets hit with a bad tackle and is taken off on a stretcher. 

Ronaldo Injury

Juventus are due to play Inter Milan on the Sunday and are priced at 2.2.

However due to the injury of Ronaldo the odds on Juventus immediately start to drift out and are priced at 2.42 within 5 minutes of the Ronaldo injury.

This would allow you to lay Juventus at 2.2 and then back them at 2.42 to guarantee your self a profit.

In the video below I outline how to lay and back (or back and lay) a trade to guarantee a profit if you are not familiar with this concept.

Out of the strategies that are outlined in the video created by Caan.

This third strategy is the one that appeals to my risk profile. As regular readers of this site know pre event trading is my favourite strategy to use.

It is extremely low risk and when you are quick to react to information then very large profits can be made.

Which leads me on to the next strategy.

Pre Match Trading Strategy

So we have covered the three football trading strategies that Caan Berry outlined in the video above.

Each of these strategies were based on the live betting markets. With the third combing both live and future markets.

Are there good football betting strategies to use in the pre match football betting markets.

The fourth strategy that I want to write about is pre match trading. This involves opening a position and exiting it before the start of the game.

This is an extremely powerful strategy and is personally my favourite strategy for the football markets.

Due to the fact that it can be extremely profitable and very low risk.

Football Trading Strategies

One of the best times to look for a pre match betting opportunities is when team news is announced. This will often lead to large movement’s in the match odds markets. 

(Below is movement after team news was announced.)

Football Trading Strategies Betfair

For Premier League games, teams often release their line up on twitter an hour before kick off.

Reacting quickly to the line up information is an extremely effective way of pre match trading. As long as you have good knowledge of the teams playing. Enabling you to identify if a key player is missing.

I know some very successful pre match football traders that also use sports journalists and official team forums to get information that the majority of the market may not be aware of.

If you are looking for a very low risk strategy to make money from the football betting markets then this is a good one.

You can learn more about pre event trading across all sports betting markets here.

Football Trading Strategies – Conclusion

So we have covered four very solid football betting strategies.

The football betting markets are some of the tougher betting markets to beat.

However if you put in the time and use the strategies that are suited to your approach to risk. You can find consistent ways to profit from football betting and trading.

I hope you have enjoyed reading this article and found some information that you can use to profit from the football betting markets.

If you want to learn more about Betfair trading in general you can visit Caan Berry’s site here.

Got any other football betting strategies that you would like us to write about?

Add a comment below.



Betfair Trading 2023 – 4 KEY Things You Must Know!

Looking to start making money from your Betfair Trading in 2023?

In this article we are going to take a look at the key things you need to know in order to succeed with your trading.

Betfair Trading 2020


It’s good to learn from your mistakes. It’s better to learn from other people’s mistake – Warren Buffet

Betfair Trading Key Advice – Learn From Others

Making mistakes in your Betfair trading will ultimately lead to you losing money. The Warren Buffet quote makes a solid point.

Wouldn’t you rather learn from those that have already lost money rather then lose your own money to find out the same thing?

Luckily when it comes to Betfair trading there are some very accomplished professional traders that have put out a lot of great information.

Caan Berry for example has been a professional Betfair trader from a number of years. Through his blog and also Youtube channel you can learn a lot about how to approach Betfair trading in 2023 with the correct approach.

Whether you are looking to trade Horse Racing, Tennis or Football. Caan has a lot of excellent information on what to look for in the betting markets.

Here is an example of a very good horse racing strategy to look at for beginners who want to profit from the horse racing markets.

The second piece of key information if your looking to improve your Betfair trading in 2022 is?

Specialize In One Sport

Find the sport you want to focus on and become a specialist.

There are thousands of markets on Betfair and it can be easy to jump around from one to the other.

Trade the horses in the morning, jump on a tennis game after your lunch. Hop over to a cricket market a few hours later, then spend the rest of the night watching and trading Serbian basketball.

Betfair Trading basketball

The Betfair markets in general are too competitive for you to jump around different sports and be able to profit long term.

The majority of successful traders that I know focus on one sport. They spend time gaining a deep knowledge of that sport and develop successful strategies.

For example Paulo Rebelo is a very successful Portuguese Betfair trader that focuses solely on football. Psychoff is another well known trader who again specializes in football.

Both Rebelo and Psychoff have been able to make big profit by solely focusing on football trading.

Other notable names in Betfair trading are Mark Iverson who focuses on cricket. Along with Dan Weston who made his name trading tennis.

These are experts in there chosen sports and are able to make a living from their Betfair trading.

Sure spend a few weeks looking at different markets and sports. However find the one that you want to specialize in and really delve into how the markets react to different situations.

Then work on developing strategies that you think could be profitable.

Dan Weston

Test Your Betfair Trading Strategies

Don’t do what I did, when I first started trading on Betfair!

There are some great videos available on youtube from the likes of Caan Berry and others. However don’t watch them and think that you will immediately be able to replicate exactly what they are doing.

You really have to build an understanding of the markets and understand the right situations for each strategy.

For example when I first started I would watch a video about scalping. Then immediately go and test it out on the next horse market that was starting. This would inevitably go very wrong as I didn’t have the understanding of the horse markets that I needed to.

This is why it is really important to test out your strategies. Using very small stakes.

What this does, is enable you to build your experience and knowledge of the betting markets you want to take on. Then eventually start to generate an income from your Betfair trading.

Becoming Profitable Takes Time

Pre event trading, in-play trading, scalping, swing trading, lay the server, back the server. There are so many different approaches that you can try with each individual sport.

However one key thing to keep in mind is that becoming profitable will take time.

Many people go into Betfair trading after they spent some time sports betting or have been involved with matched betting. Perhaps thinking that it is going to be a relatively easy way to make some extra money.

This isn’t true, the markets are competitive and becoming profitable will likely take some time.

Even the best Betfair traders had to start somewhere.

Don’t expect to be hitting Paulo Rebelo levels of profit within a few weeks.

Make sure you give yourself time to learn the markets. Don’t pressure yourself with an unrealistic goal of making thousands of pounds profit within a month or two.

Betfair Trading In 2023 – Conclusion

Overall the betting exchange markets offer a lot of opportunity, if you are willing to put some work into them.

In 2022 Betfair trading is still a very viable way of making money online. Within this article we have looked at 4 key pieces of advice that can really help you get started.

If you want learn more about Betfair trading a good starting place is Caan Berry’s website which has a free beginners trading course.

Betfair Trading School


Click Here For Your Free Beginners Trading Course



In-Play Football Betting Strategies 2022 – Make Profits In-Play

In-play betting is becoming more and more popular. Often the excitement of watching a game can be enhanced with a bet.

Bookmakers know this and they often offer a multitude of markets to bet on in-play.

However the majority of the time if you are betting in-play you will find the best value at the betting exchanges. With betting exchanges you also have the option of trading your positions.

If I am betting in-play then it is the exchanges that I will normally look to first.

Lets take a look at some in-play football betting and trading strategies that can be profitable with the right approach.

In-Play Football Betting Strategy – Laying The Draw

In-Play Football Betting Strategies
Laying the draw pre match

Laying the draw is a strategy that is used by most newcomers to football trading and is easy to follow.

In the past many people used this strategy pre-match. They would lay the draw before the start of a game, wait for a goal to be scored and then hedge all outcomes hopefully for a profit.

However as time has gone on this has become a less profitable and less popular strategy.

In-Play Football Betting Strategies
Laying the draw in-play

Another option with this strategy is to delay your entry into the trade.

Look for games that are level in the second half and then look to lay the draw with the game in-play.

Using this strategy you would lower the potential risk level as the draw odds are lower and take a higher profit if a goal is scored.

You don’t have to trade out of this position either.

Some people are happy to lay the draw in the second half and move on to the next bet. Using this strategy as a straight betting method.

Laying The Draw In-Play – Optimal Conditions

  • Favourite needs to win – I want the favourite to be really pushing for a goal. Perhaps they are second place in the league and a win would put them top. Or maybe its a cup game and they really don’t want to go to a replay.

  • The underdog should show they can counter – If the underdog is just sitting back and soaking up the pressure without countering. Then we may as well just back the favourite if they are the only team that look like scoring.

Laying The Correct Score Strategy

Another strategy that can used exclusively with the betting exchanges is laying the correct score.

With this strategy we are looking to bet that there will be at least one more goal in the game.

Now if you were to use this strategy pre match you would be laying at pretty high odds. In-play however you can often find good opportunities at much lower odds.

In-Play Football Betting Strategies

In the example above the score was 0-0 after around 60 minutes. Liverpool were the favourites playing at home. They found themselves trailing 0-1 on aggregate in a cup semi final.

This meant that Liverpool needed a goal to have any hope of qualification. Liverpool pushed hard for the goal however it was Southampton who scored an injury time winner on the counter attack.

What type of conditions are ideal for these types of strategies?

Laying The Correct Score In-play – Optimal Conditions

  • Home team favourites are trailing by a goal – When a home team favourite is trailing and time is ticking down you will often see a great sense of urgency. Also the home crowd will often add extra pressure for them to push forward. 

  • There is only a one goal difference – When there is only a one goal difference it can make a big psychological difference to a players mentality. One goal seems within achievable even if there is only a few minutes remaining in the game.

  • Game tempo is also a key factor – Is the referee letting the game flow or continually stopping it? Are the leading team looking to counter or happy to sit back? Are tactical changes being made and substitutions?

Other In-Play Betting Strategies

There are a lot approaches you can take when looking to find value in the in-play betting markets. Niche markets can provide great value as they are often overlooked.

The corner markets are a favourite for quite a few profitable tipsters that I have seen.

Then there are the over/under goals markets, the first half goal markets, total goals, next goal, Asian handicap markets. With so many markets and options available there are countless in-play betting strategies that you can try.

In-Play Football Betting Strategies
You might want to focus on the first half markets?

With in-play betting and trading the odds in these markets have to consistently change with the dynamics of the game. This often means there are is a lot of potential value bets to be found with the right research.

Where Can I Find Stats For In-Play Betting?

If you planning to bet in-play you might want to look at the statistics of previous games.There are a number of really good sites for football statistics. Here some recommendations which are all free to use.

  1. Soccerstats
  2. Whoscored
  3. Soccerway

In-Play Football Betting Strategies

My personal favourite is soccerstats. It has a great layout, is easy to use and gives you really great statistical breakdowns.

Which you can see from the above screenshot.

Click Here To Receive Free Betting Tips From Proven Winning Tipsters

Where can I get stats for games that have already started?

Most bookmakers will provide you a statistical breakdown of a game that they are offering in-play. What you should be aware of is that they might not always be 100% accurate.

I would always prefer to have live video for a game that I was intending to bet or trade. As not all shots on target are of the same relevance and possession stats don’t always indicate a teams dominance.

In-Play Football Betting Strategies

However if you can’t get live video. Here are some of my recommendations free sites that give live data on ongoing football matches.

  1. Total Corner
  2. Bet365 (Need funded account but free to view live stats)
  3. Flashscore (Have statistics for most major games)

In-Play Football Betting Strategies – General Advice

When you are looking at in-play football betting strategies you might sometimes be in a rush to place your bet. However if you really want to make money from any avenue of betting its important to get the best odds possible.

On most occasions you will find this with a betting exchange such as Betfair. But sometimes you may find it with a bookmaker you have access too.

Oddsportal have a live feed for in-play odds which you can use for a quick comparison when betting in-play.

Don’t force a bet or trade just because your watching a game. Often you will see bookmakers advertising “Milner to score the next goal at 9.0” during half time.

These are exactly the types of bets you don’t want to make. There is a reason a bookmaker is promoting this bet because its terrible value.

If you want to find good value in the in-play markets then you will need to do your research. Wait like a sniper and then when everything aligns enter the market.


Make Money Sports Betting And Trading – 7 Methods For Finding An Edge

You need an edge in the sports betting markets to make money.

Finding An Edge – Sports Betting And Betfair Trading

First off what is an edge in sports betting and trading?

An edge is the reason that you make money from sports betting.

A simple example of an edge that is well documented and used by many is matched betting and arbitrage. Matched betting involves using bookmaker promotions to make frequent profits. Arbitrage capitalizes on bookmakers being slow to move their odds allowing profit to be made on all outcomes. 

However the trouble with these edges is that it isn’t easily scalable and it relies on soft bookmakers. Who eventually won’t want your business and limit you to pennies.

That leaves a lot of people searching for an edge that is sustainable over the long term.  An edge that offers more scalability and the potential for larger profit.

Finding An Edge - Sports Betting And Betfair TradingBut what processes can you use to find an edge?

Lets have look at some potential ways to find an edge in both sports betting and sports trading.

Past Data

One way of looking at finding an edge is to analyse past data. This may reveal profitable trends that potentially still exist in the current markets. Which then can lead to a profitable betting strategy.

Two big advocates of this type of analysis are Cassini. The man behind the sports betting blog green all over, who frequently puts up betting systems based on past profitable trends.

Finding An Edge - Sports Betting And Betfair Trading

Jon Roberts the man behind the software Predictology. Is also a fan of using past data to look at building profitable betting strategies for the current betting markets.

Is there a downside to using past data?

Well just because something has happened in the past doesn’t guarantee it is going to happen in the future.

However it is certainly a good indicator to use and might highlight some area’s that could be exploitable.


If you have an interest in sports betting. Then you will have probably come across a few mathematical models that people use to try and find value in the betting markets.

For those that are mathematically minded. Developing a sports betting model might be the answer to developing an edge.

It is thought that many of the largest betting syndicates in the world use mathematical modelling for sports betting.

One such syndicate was the legendary brain trust headed by Billy Walters.

Lets take a look at a few models which have been used to try and find value in sports betting.

Elo Ratings

The idea of Elo ratings is that each team has a rating. Stronger sides will be given a higher rating compared to weaker sides. For example Manchester United would be given a higher rating then Brighton.

Elo ratings are constantly changing, they are calculated based upon the results of matches. When two sides play, the winner of a match will gain a certain number of points in their rating. The losing team loses the same amount.

The number of points won or lost in a match will depend on the difference in the Elo ratings of the teams. By beating stronger teams a side will increase there points by more then by beating a weaker side.

Applying Elo Ratings To Sports Betting

Finding An Edge - Sports Betting And Betfair Trading

Poisson Distribution

Poisson distribution is a mathematical concept. Used for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution.

This is used in football betting for example to calculate on average how likely a team are to score a certain number of goals.

Here are some good articles on Poisson distribution in betting.

Poisson Distribution: Predict the score in soccer betting

Football Prediction Model: Poisson Distribution

Expected Goals

In football the expected goals model has risen in popularity lately. Being used quite often in post match analysis by television pundits.

Expected goals is a metric which assesses every chance, it is a way of assigning a value to every attempt at scoring a goal. Each attempt is given a value based based on the expectancy of how likely it is to be scored.

For example an effort from less than six yards out in front of goal was given a rating of  0.91xG. It was such a good chance it should be scored 91% of the time.

Using an expected goals model could indicate how “lucky” or “unlucky” a teams results have been. Which could indicate value on teams that may have been performing well on expected goals but not getting the results.

An analysis of expected goals models

Live Pictures

They say a picture paints a thousand words. Often live pictures can tell you much more about a game then the in play stats.

We live in an age where there are free streams of football games all around the world. On a given day you can watch the Japanese league in the morning, the Romanian league in the afternoon and finish off with La Liga at night.

There are quite a few football traders for example that swear by trading only with live pictures.

Finding An Edge - Sports Betting And Betfair Trading

Psychoff may be one of the best known football traders in the world. He has stated on his twitter account that he makes his goal alert trading decisions based on watching live games. Surprisingly also stating that he doesn’t use statistics for these trades.

With live pictures you can pick up on adjustments in tactics. In football games you can read the tempo and flow of a game. See the weather conditions, body language of players. Having live pictures can often give you a lot of extra information when deciding to make a bet.

Combined with knowledge of the sports and teams. Live pictures might be enough to give you a profitable edge in the markets.

Beating The Closing Odds

In sports betting. If you can consistently beat the closing odds at sharp bookmakers. Then its likely that you are consistently finding value.

Major sports betting markets are pretty efficient. There has been quite a few studies which have shown this using Pinnacle’s closing odds as an example.

Because they are so efficient if you are able to constantly beat the closing odds (after the inclusion of vig). Then you will most likely have found yourself a profitable betting system.

In fact the profitable sports betting tool Trademate is based on this very concept.

Finding An Edge - Sports Betting And Betfair Trading

Trademate scans for odds across a high number of bookmakers. When it finds odds that are higher then those at the sharp bookmakers it advises a bet.

This is also known as value betting.

It is perhaps one of the simplest ways of finding value in the sports betting markets.

If you are looking for high turnover and a proven method of making money. Value betting is probably one of the easiest ways to do this.

The drawback to this style of betting is that it again relies on soft bookmakers.

Experiencing The Markets

This could probably be classed as using past data.

However specifically relating to Betfair trading I think it deserves its own section.

Experiencing the markets over and over can really help you see potential opportunities for profit.

I will use football as an example as this is the sport I trade the most.

A lot of my own pre match trading strategies were created by watching lots of market movements. Noting odds days in advance for games. Tracking what the odds were leading up to game day and eventually noting the closing odds.

If you do this you start to see patterns and understand what moves a market pre match.

Finding An Edge - Sports Betting And Betfair TradingTeam news is always going to have a big effect on the market. But by watching markets I also learnt that performances mid week for teams playing in Europe will effect prices for games at the weekend.

If there is a question mark on whether a key player is likely to start, early odds movement can often be a good indication on how likely they are to play or not. As people with this information already will get their bets on before its public knowledge.

Caan Berry has also stated that he records all the horse racing markets he trades. So that he can experience these markets again and build better judgments for future markets. Allowing him to react quicker if future markets trade in a similar way to one he has already experienced.

In Depth Knowledge

As noted earlier in this article. The markets with the most amount of money traded are usually the most efficient.

However odds makers don’t put a huge amount of attention on some of the sports/events that don’t attract the big money.

For example the odds in the Portuguese second division are not going to be as efficient as the Champions league. So for a hardcore fan of the Portuguese second division, value might be easy to spot at first glance.

In lesser known sports/leagues an in depth knowledge may be enough to give you a profitable edge.

Contrarian Betting

The sport of mixed martial arts is still fairly young. Betting on the UFC is growing and odds makers are getting better at pricing up fights.

However if you have an in depth knowledge of the sport then there is great value to be found.

Given that you don’t see fighters week in week out. Along with the promotion of UFC being akin to pro wrestling with a narrative often being written. Occassionally you see some lop sided odds as the betting public often follow the narrative being portrayed.

Finding An Edge - Sports Betting And Betfair Trading

The best example of this is when Ronda Rousey fought Amanda Nunes.

Rousey was coming back after a year layoff on the back of vicious head kick loss. In a fight where she showed serious flaws in her fighting style.

Nunes was the new champion who had shown to be well rounded and was running through top level competition. On top of that she had shown she was an elite level striker, striking was Rousey’s biggest weakness.

All the media and promotion of the fight was behind Rousey comeback and somehow Nunes was odds of 2.8 as the defending champion come fight night.

The odds were way out of line due to the media being behind only one fighter.

Whenever the media are heavily behind one team/athlete. It is always worth looking at it from a contrarian point of view.


So we have looked at multiple approaches in finding an edge in the sports betting markets.

Depending on your personality and your own skill set some maybe more viable then others

Often a combination of the methods above will be used to find value.

Finding a long term edge in the Betfair trading or sports betting isn’t easy. But for those that do find them the rewards can be huge.

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

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Psychoff Betfair Trading Strategies – 4 Football Strategies

Psychoff Betfair Trading Strategies

Who Is The Sports Trader Psychoff?

Psychoff is almost a legendary figure among aspiring sports traders and bettors.

Appearing in the mid 2000’s on the sports trading forum Geekstoy.

Psychoff showed his ability to make money trading sports. Posting videos of his own Betfair account and the profits that he had been making. Sharing advice and snippets of information on how to trade successfully.

You can view the video of Psychoff’s profits here.

Psychoff Betfair Trading Results


However in 2010 Psychoff  disappeared from the sports trading community.

Leaving a goodbye message on his blog.

It seemed as though that would be the end of Psychoff’s communication with aspiring sports traders.

Disappearing into the real world, leaving us with a few snippets of what can be achieved if you really learn the betting markets.

Psychoff Returns

Psychoff Betfair Trading Strategies

For six years nothing was heard from Psychoff within the sports trading community.

Until unexpectedly Psychoff announced his return.

A national holiday was declared in Turkey, England and Ireland.

People stormed the streets chanting “Psychoff, Psychoff, Psychoff!”

Well maybe none of that actually happened. But in my head it was quite a big deal.

Anyway moving on……………………………….

Not only did Psychoff return but he started giving out free trading advice. 

Starting on twitter initially and then moving on to Discord. Psychoff shared his goal alerts and gave an insight into his own Betfair trading strategies.

Lets take a look at some of the football trading strategies that Psychoff has shared since his return.

Psychoff Betfair Trading Strategies

During the 2018 World Cup.

Psychoff gave out more insight into his football trading then ever before.

One of his most used live betting strategies was backing there to be 2 or more goals in the second half.

For example in the game between Russia and Egypt.

Russia were leading 1-0 and Egypt needed to score.

Psychoff Betting

Psychoff advised to back Over 1.5 goals and over 2.5 goals stating that these were value prices.

Russia ended up winning the game 3-1 and both bets were won.

Goals Change Games

From following Psychoff’s discord trading channel. This trading/betting strategy was used often in similar scenario’s.

“Goals change games” is a popular saying among arm chair football fans. But it is very true.

Often after the first goal a game will open up.

A tight first half that finished 0-0 can suddenly explode in the second half if a goal is scored early. As the losing team suddenly has to throw caution to wind and find an equalizer.

It seemed that some of the best value to found was in games where there was a low expectation of goals. Psychoff would often note that the price of odds wasn’t high enough in games where a lot of goals were expected.

Second Half Domination

When I first started this blog. I wrote about a football strategy I liked to use in the first half.

Titled the “domination” method.

From the trades that Psychoff shares it seems that he favours trades in the second half.

Over the course of the tournament Psychoff suggested backing a few teams that were dominating there opposition in the second half.

Teams that were maintaining possession, creating goal scoring opportunities and putting the opposition under great pressure.

Psychoff Betfair Trading Strategies

We saw this when England were dominating Tunisia in the second half whilst the score was 1-1.

England were backed at odds close to even and won 2-1.

While France were losing 2-1 in the second half to Argentina, but looked the stronger side.

France were backed at odds of 8.2, they eventually won 4-3.

In the Semi Final Croatia were losing 0-1 to England, however they started to take control of play and dominate the second half.

Croatia were backed at odds of 30.00, they equalised and Psychoff advised removing the risk. If Croatia went on to win the game a large profit would have been made.

As the game finished 1-1  no money was won or lost.

In all of these scenario’s there was one clear team dominating the match. Through watching live pictures of the game and analyzing the odds movement. Psychoff saw value in the odds at the time.

Trading With Live Pictures

Psychoff is a big advocate of trading with live pictures. On twitter when answering questions from followers.

Live Trading

He has stated that he doesn’t use in-play or pre match statistics very much. Preferring to find value through game flow and what he is seeing on the pitch.

Alongside his many years of experience in trading football matches.

This allows him to make consistent profits trading on football.


During the 2018 world, Psychoff showed a few screens of his results from scalping.

Although he did not advise any scalping. Which given the in and out nature of scalping makes sense.

It would be difficult to advise the right timings to enter and exit the market.

He did highlight some of the best times for scalping.

For example when heavy favourites Germany were losing 0-1 to Mexico. 

Germany vs Mexico

With 10 minutes remaining the odds of another goal being scored remained around evens.

Often when there is an expectation that there will very likely be another goal the markets will stall. However as time ticks on and the goal does not arrive the market panics and the odds start to move extremely fast.

In these situations scalping can be very profitable.

Psychoff Goal Alerts?

Goal alerts have been Psychoff’s bread and butter trading advice since he arrived on social media.

These goal alerts are very simple and are a straight value bets without any trading needed.

Simply bet that there is going to be another goal in the game.

If you followed Psychoff on twitter and now follow him on Discord. Then it is likely you will have seen one of Psychoff’s goal alerts.

Goal Alert

Psychoff specializes in finding games where a goal late in the second half is more likely then the current odds imply.

Something that I have noticed is that most of the time there is only a 1 goal difference in the games (although not always.)

I wrote in the article laying the correct score tips that my preference for laying the correct score is when there is only a 1 goal margin.

Due to the fact that psychologically if you are only losing by one goal. A team is likely to go all out to find that equalizer. Where as if a team is a 2 or 3 goals down with 5 mins to play. They may conserve their energy and accept defeat.

What Psychoff has shown is with the right game selection there is money to be made from backing a late goal.

What can be learnt from Psychoff Betfair Trading Strategies.

It is not that often that you get to see how a top level sports trader trades.

But for a guy that has won over 7 figures on the sports betting markets. Psychoff is way more open about his edges then the majority of successful sports bettors and traders.

Price is everything

One thing that should be noted is that although Psychoff uses live pictures and reads game flow.

He didn’t advise trades for every game in the world cup.

There were often times where Psychoff would state that he couldn’t find value in a match. A few times he stated that he would like to open a position but the odds weren’t high enough.

Psychoff isn’t the worlds greatest “hunch bettor” there is still a technical process about his trading. Every successful sports bettor or trader, will tell you that is all about value.

If the odds don’t provide value then you simply don’t bet them.

Psychoff Picture
Psychoff sharing a pint with one of his twitter follows.

I will admit I love following Psychoff’s trading advice and profiting from it. But I get a bigger kick from learning how Psychoff operates in the betting markets.

There is a lot of value in looking at the methods Psychoff has shown he uses. Combining these methods with the likes of sports arbitrage betting and also matched betting should allow you to make decent profits from the sports betting markets.

If you are aspiring sports trader or bettor then you should really be following Psychoff.



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First Goalscorer Trading Strategy – Simple Football Trading Strategy

Trading the first goalscorer what to look out for?

The first goalscorer market is one that is often overlooked by a lot of traders. It is not the most liquid of the football markets but there still often good trading opportunities to be found.

Lets take a look at two approaches you can use when tackling the first goalscorer markets.

 First Goalscorer Trading Strategy – Market Maker

One approach you can use in the first goalscorer market is to offer multiple lay bets at prices below that of the bookmakers. For example lets take a look at tonight’s game Juventus vs Napoli.

Trading The First Goalscorer Markets

This was at 09.00 this morning and the game was due to be played at 19.45.

There has been no money matched so far but as the time draws nearer to the game liquidity will increase. What you can see above however is that there is already multiple back bets available.

This means that someone or a few people have put lay bets in the market hoping to get matched.

Apart from Gonzalo Higuain all the above prices are below that of the rest of the betting market. This means that if anyone does back at these prices then the layer of these bets will be able to hedge his bet later for a guaranteed profit.

Lets take a look at how the bookies prices compare.


Trading The First Goalscorer Markets

Arbing With Bookmakers

For example if someone matched your lay bet on Miralem Pjanic at 6.8 there are odds of 9.5 available to back at Bet365 and Betstars. This gives you an arbitrage situation.

You can either lock in your profit using bookmakers or wait till closer to kick off when the prices become more liquid and trade out.

This strategy relies on patience and hoping that a recreational bettor takes your bet or someone makes a mistake. You are more likely to get matched in one of the bigger games where there is more interest and money in the markets.

Trading The First Goalscorer Markets

If you look at the above example I set myself up in two positions that I believe will be profitable.

Higuain is available at a best priced 4.25 with the bookmakers.

Big name goalscorers like Higuain tend to be priced much closer to the exchange price. I believe that my position at 4.8 is a value position and that I should be able to hedge it for lower closer to the game.

The second position I have put in is a lay bet on Pjanic at 7.4.

If this was to get matched I could back him at 9.5 on Bet365 or Betstars for an arbitrage bet or wait for the liquidity to arrvive and trade out at a higher price.

 First Goalscorer Trading Strategy – Unexpected Starters

The second strategy that I want to outline is when the expected line up is something of a mystery. This usually happens in cup games and I will use the Sutton vs Arsenal FA cup game as an example.

Now in this game it was uncertain who would start as the main striker for Arsenal. When the team news was announced it was Theo Walcott who was pictured as a lone striker. This game was also being featured on the BBC which means there would be lots of liquidity and interest.

These are always good conditions for trading.

Trading The First Goalscorer Markets

Given that Arsenal were priced at 1.13 and heavy favourites alongside the factors I mentioned above.

It was likely that there would be a lot of money being bet on Theo Walcott to score first. I backed the available money at 4.6 which was around £300 and then when the price shortened I layed it at 4.4.

Hedging the position for a profit across all outcomes for around £13 was an option but I choose to leave the majority of the profit on a Theo Walcott goal.

So there are a few pointers to look out for when trading the first goalscorer markets. There are often opportunities available in this market if you prepare a little and plan ahead.



Betfair Trading – 6 Tips For Beginners

Betfair Trading For Beginners

Trading on Betfair can be a very exciting prospect and there are new people coming to sports trading on a daily basis.

Here are six Betfair trading tips to help you get started on your trading journey

Betfair Trading Beginners

Trading Psychology – Manage Your Expectations

A question that a lot of people ask when first starting to trade on Betfair is “How much can I make?”

This is a question that can’t be answered. Some people may go on to make large sums of money. Whilst others struggle to make any.

If you focus on the money but ignore the process you will struggle. The main question to focus on when you start trading is “how can I make money?”

Where is the opportunity?

How do the markets functions?

Why would this be a profitable strategy?

Becoming a profitable sports trader may take some time. It is important to manage your expectations and not expect too much too soon.

Your trading psychology is likely going to one of the main factors in whether or not you become a profitable trader.

Betfair Trading Beginners
There are a lot of options when trading its easy to get confused.

Focus On One Sport

There are so many options to look at when trading on Betfair. There is in-play trading or pre-event trading for a start. Then numerous sports to trade football, tennis, cricket, horse racing, basketball, darts etc.

It can be quite tough to know where to start.

Initially you might want to look at the different sports and how the markets react. Once you have found the sport that suits your trading style its time to focus on that one.

You can see that many of the best sports traders around specialize in one sport. 

Caan Berry – Horse Racing

Psychoff – Football

Dan Weston – Tennis

 Betfair Trading Beginners

Be Patient

Good trading is often about waiting for the best opportunities to present themselves. You need patience in order to gain the experience to spot these opportunities. Then you need patience to be able to wait for them to appear before executing your trades.

When I was starting out on my trading journey a full time trader told me “You can’t create good trades out of thin air.” “They are either there or they are not, just try to make the most of them when they appear.”

This sounded a little funny to me at first. But the more I learnt about trading the more this type of mindset makes sense.

You can’t force a good trade. Just because you lost your last trade doesn’t mean that laying the score in an Egyptian second division game for twice your usual stake is suddenly a good idea.

Betfair Trading Beginners

Keep Learning

After a while you will start to notice recurring themes in the markets that you are trading. Reactions to certain news, over reactions in some scenario’s, under reactions in others. The sports trading markets are constantly reacting to different bits of information and you can always learn from this.

Keep records of your own trading and note the instances that move the odds.

Do these instances create opportunity?

Are they likely to occur again?

Why did they happen?

Betfair Trading Beginners

Persistence Pays Off

There are going to be times when you make a mistake, where you lose money.

When I started sports trading and betting I thought I would be successful pretty quickly. I was wrong it took me a few years before I really understood how to make money from football trading.

It was from trial and error, reading lots of blogs, recording my trades, recording odds movement and chatting on forums. Eventually I started to see repeatable patterns which were profitable and I was only able to do this through persistence.

Betfair Trading Beginners
Paulo Rebelo has shown what can be achieved with persistence. Rebelo is estimated to have made millions trading football on Betfair (picture courtesy of www.paulorebelo.com)

Manage Your Bankroll

When things are going well and every trade is a green one. It can be easy to get carried away and starting betting much larger amounts then you should be.

Over the long term things are always going to go perfectly. They will be losing trades, losing days, perhaps even losing months depending on your trading strategy and variance.

Making sure you keep your bankroll in tact is another huge factor in whether or not your going to make money in the long term.

Are you currently trading on Betfair, Betdaq or Smarkets?

Have any advice for new traders?

Comment below.


Betfair Scam – “Wallet Management”

Unfortunately scam artists are in every type of industry.

In sports trading one type of scam that is used to lure in potential victims is called “wallet management.”

What is wallet management?

“Wallet management” is a concept that really makes no sense at all.

Lets take a look at my exchanges with a so called “professional trader” that offers “wallet management”.

Betfair Scam

Betfair Scam

Basically a “Professional Trader” will approach showing you lots of nice winning screenshots and green screens. They will tell you that they are a profitable trader and are willing to offer their services.

Betfair Scam
A fake screenshot with lots of big green figures is usually used.

The scam artist will ask you to transfer money to their account or platform. The scammer will then claim to use the account to make money via trading. Promising you a high percentage of the profits for doing this.

Betfair Scam


Scam artists will target someone that is interested in sports trading. They do this via social media such platforms like Twitter and Facebook. Forums and email messages are also places where scam artists might try to contact someone.

Most people will realize that any professional trader that is consistently making money from the betting exchanges won’t need any type of investment. A profitable trader can reuse their own winnings and scale up their betting. By paying out a large commission on somebodies investment they are taking that money out of their own pocket.

There is no reason for any real trader to offer a service such as the one detailed above. If anyone does approach you offering this service then be aware that it is a scam.

If you want to start profiting from sports betting and trading. I recommend this service which is low risk and consistently makes money

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Trading Strategy

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy

Goals are the most exciting aspect of a football match.

They cause the biggest odds movement and there are numerous strategies based around goals.

Laying the correct score in the second half is the strategy I am going to write about in this article.

When is the best time to lay the correct score?

Generally I like to the lay the score in the second half of the game in the final 30 minutes.

There are a few factors that I look for in a good lay the second half score trade.

Laying The Correct Score Tips - Betfair Strategy
Cup games are good for this strategy.


Urgency – There needs to a reason why a teams need to score and preferably as quick as possible.

One goal difference – I like there to be a one goal difference between the teams. Psychologically this can make a big difference to the way players react. One goal is always very attainable whether there are 20 minutes or 2 minutes remaining.

Home team losing/Cup game – These situations can create an urgency within a team to score. A rabid home crowd spur their team to push forward and can give a side that extra energy. It can also leave them open to the counter and exposed at the back as the pressure from fans builds.

Teams that generally score/Opposition stats – This is probably obvious but you want to look at teams that have a good goal scoring record at home. Also consider on average how many goals there opponents concede away from home.

Game Tempo – Being able to watch a game is an advantage as game tempo can be key.

  •  Is the leading team looking to counter?
  •  Are they wasting time using stalling tactics?
  •  Is the referee stopping the game at every opportunity?
  •  Are the crowd behind the home team? Changes in tactics/substitutions?

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy


Last night there was a game between Liverpool and Southampton in the league cup semi final. Liverpool were the home side and found themselves down 0-1 on aggregate. It got to the 60 minute mark and the score was level at 0-0 with Liverpool needing a goal to have any hope of qualification.

Laying The Correct Score Tips - Betfair Strategy

Given the conditions of the game meeting the factors above and Liverpool’s tendency to score at home I entered a lay bet on 0-0 at 3.35.

It should also be noted that Southampton were missing there best defender Virgil Van Dijk and this season had conceded twice as many goals in the second half compared to the first. These were other factors that I felt increased the likely hood of a goal being scored.

Laying The Correct Score Tips - Betfair Strategy

Liverpool pushed hard for the goal but ultimately it was Southampton who scored in injury time on the counter. The lay bet was successful £28.53 was made after commission for a stake of £70.50.

I prefer to trade the match odds markets pre match and in the first half. The strategy above however is a good one to consider in the second half if the right conditions are met.

This strategy is basically an outright bet on a goal being scored. Like all betting strategies you need to consider correct bankroll management and game selection to be successful in the long term.

Hopefully this article on laying the correct score will have given you a strategy to consider when trading the second half of a football game.



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