4 Football Trading Strategies
Football betting is a huge global market. It attracts billions of pounds in turnover and is often one the first sports that new bettors try to make money from.
People are always looking for football trading strategies that actually work.
In this article we are going to look at using strategies on Betfair and other betting exchanges. Which allow you to approach football betting in a way that is not available with normal bookmakers.
Which betting strategies actually work?
What are the best football betting strategies?
Caan Berry recently put out a video related to three football trading strategies you can use for the live betting markets. I thought it would be interesting to cover these strategies and look at the merits, potential dangers and situations where you could use these strategies effectively.
You can view the video below.
Football Trading Strategy 1 – Market Overreactions
The first strategy that Caan mentions in the video is taking advantage of overreactions in the market. Specifically mentioning the market reaction after a goal is scored.
When a goal is scored this is often a point where traders will look to exit their position.
For example if someone has layed the over 2.5 goals market at the start of the game. Their trading plan might be to hedge the trade for a profit after 20 mins if there is no goal. If a goal is scored then they will exit the strategy for a loss.
In this scenario if an early goal is scored. That trader is often going to exit that trade without considering the value of the odds that they are are backing.
This takes advantage of panic in the market.
So in this example the trade would be to lay the over 2.5 goals market straight after a goal is scored. Then exit a few minutes later as the market corrects and the odds drift.
A strategy I have seen used with this type of trade was to hold the trade for 15 minutes before hedging for profit.
Obviously the danger with this type of trade is that you open yourself up another goal being scored before you exit the trade.
So although this is a strategy that will generate a lot of small wins, when you do lose it is going to be for more.
If you are using this strategy you have to acknowledge the risk vs reward and as always make sure you have a solid staking plan.
It is not a strategy to use for every game.
You should always do your research and record when you see the optimal conditions for type of trade. This will allow you to anticipate in the future the best situations for this trading strategy.
Match Odds Market Strategy
Caan suggests in the video using this strategy in the match odds market.
In the match odds market you have the added upside of the opposing team scoring a goal whilst you are waiting for the market to correct itself.
It would make sense to use this strategy when there is a heavy favourite that has taken the lead. Market’s like this tend to have more recreational money in the market.
When you have more recreational money in the market, you have a lot more traders that are not going to be assessing the value of the odds available. They will exit positions regardless of the odds being value or not.
The potential downside of the trade is again the danger of a goal against you whilst you try to scalp a few ticks.
However if you can find opportunities laying at shorter odds. Then the potential profit of a goal coming in your favour will yield a greater profit then a loss.
Football Trading Strategy 2 – Scalping Time Decay
The second strategy that is discussed in the video above is taking advantage of time decay.
As time moves forward in a football game, markets have to adjust to the changing probabilities of the games outcomes.
So for example if Man Utd are leading 1-0 against Brighton and are priced 1.17 on the 60th minute mark. If no other goal is scored then this price will gradually move to 1.01 before the end of the game.
The same has to happen for every other market in the match.
Here are a few pointers to use this strategy successfully.
You need fast live feed for pictures – You don’t want to be lagging behind every other trader and miss key moments in the game.
Use market panic to your advantage – If the market heavily favours something to happen odds can sometimes stall. For example a heavy favourite is losing by 1 goal and market expects them to score. However as the game approaches the last 10-15 minutes odds movement can accelerate due to market panic.
React to game tempo – Something else to consider is the tempo of the game, is the referee regularly stopping it, players time wasting, faking injury etc
This is a very solid strategy.
During the 2018 World Cup renowned football trader Psychoff gave out free trading advice. He used the above strategy several times successfully in both the goal markets and the match odds markets.
Obviously with any scalping strategy you are always at the mercy of a goal going against you.
However when using this strategy in the match odds market. There will be times when a goal will be scored to your advantage.
Like all betting/trading strategies it is about finding the situations that suit the strategy and provide value. Rather then trying to use the same strategy for every situation.
Football Trading Strategy 3 – Parallel Market Intent
The next strategy Caan outlines is parallel market intent.
This basically means looking at markets in the future. Which are currently related to the one that is happening at that moment.
Let’s say for example Juventus are playing on Wednesday night in the Champions league against Liverpool. During the game Cristiano Ronaldo (The most important player in the Juventus team) gets hit with a bad tackle and is taken off on a stretcher.
Juventus are due to play Inter Milan on the Sunday and are priced at 2.2.
However due to the injury of Ronaldo the odds on Juventus immediately start to drift out and are priced at 2.42 within 5 minutes of the Ronaldo injury.
This would allow you to lay Juventus at 2.2 and then back them at 2.42 to guarantee your self a profit.
In the video below I outline how to lay and back (or back and lay) a trade to guarantee a profit if you are not familiar with this concept.
Out of the strategies that are outlined in the video created by Caan. This third strategy is the one that appeals to my risk profile. As regular readers of this site know pre event trading is my favourite strategy to use.
It is extremely low risk and when you are quick to react to information then very large profits can be made.
Which leads me on to the next strategy.
Pre Match Trading Strategy
So we have covered the three football trading strategies that Caan Berry outlined in the video above.
Each of these strategies were based on the live betting markets. With the third combing both live and future markets.
Are there good football betting strategies to use in the pre match football betting markets.
The fourth strategy that I want to write about is pre match trading. This involves opening a position and exiting it before the start of the game.
This is an extremely powerful strategy and is personally my favourite strategy for the football markets.
Due to the fact that it can be extremely profitable and very low risk.
One of the best times to look for a pre match betting opportunities is when team news is announced. This will often lead to large movement’s in the match odds markets.
(Below is movement after team news was announced.)
For Premier League games, teams often release their line up on twitter an hour before kick off.
Reacting quickly to the line up information is an extremely effective way of pre match trading. As long as you have good knowledge of the teams playing. Enabling you to identify if a key player is missing.
I know some very successful pre match football traders that also use sports journalists and official team forums to get information that the majority of the market may not be aware of.
If you are looking for a very low risk strategy to make money from the football betting markets then this is a good one.
So we have covered four very solid football betting strategies.
The football betting markets are some of the tougher betting markets to beat.
However if you put in the time and use the strategies that are suited to your approach to risk. You can find consistent ways to profit from football betting and trading.
I hope you have enjoyed reading this article and found some information that you can use to profit from the football betting markets.
Got any other football betting strategies that you would like us to write about?
Add a comment below.