Smart Sports Trader, Author at Smart Sports Trader

Betfair Scalping – Football Trading Strategies

In this article I am going to write about finding the best opportunities for scalping the football markets.

Swing Trading Football Strategies

Big name player gets injured

One of the most profitable strategies for scalping the football markets is to take advantage of injuries that occur in play. I will use an example from the Euro 2016 final.

During the first half of the Euro 2016 final Portugal’s star player Cristiano Ronaldo went down injured and looked like he could not continue.

In a matter of minutes Portugals price flew out from 4.5 to around 5.2. This enabled traders who reacted quickly to make around 13% profit on their stake.

This example is a more of a swing trade and it doesn’t happen that often. If you aware and act quick enough though there is good profit to made from little risk.

(In the 2018 Champions League final this also happened when Mo Salah got injured for Liverpool.)

Short Term Scalping

Killing Time

One of my favourite times to scalp a market is when one team is deliberately killing time and faking injuries.

Italian games are good for scalping opportunities

This a common scenario when an underdog is leading a game and time is ticking down during the second half. The key to being profitable in this scenario is having quick enough pictures and recognizing which teams have a tendency to stall the play.

In this scenario you have the option of laying the losing favourite or laying the overs market. You should be able to gain a few ticks each time doing this again with very low risk.

There are other opportunities for scalping the football markets on Betfair but these are two with the lowest risk.

Key things to consider

Here are a few key things to consider when you are scalping the football markets on Betfair.

How fast are your pictures?

– You really need the fastest pictures available, if you are streaming with a 20 second delay then you are going to be behind the majority of the market.

How liquid is the market you are trading?

-If you are trading a Champions League game you should have no problem getting in and out of the market.

-If you are trading a low level FA Cup game on a wet Wednesday night the opportunity to scalp properly is probably not going to be there.

What is you risk vs reward ratio?

-What is your profit percentage each time you enter a scalp trade?

-How much of your bank are you willing to lose should something go against you?

When used in the right situations scalping can be a good way of building some very low risks profits during a game of football.

I hope these Betfair scalping football trading strategies have given you a few more options to think about.

(In order to scalp successfully on Betfair you will need to use some software that allows quick entries and exits into the markets. I currently use Geeks toy having found this to be the quickest and one of the most efficient pieces of software available.)

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy – Small Risk For A Large Payoff

In this article I am going to detail a horse racing arbitrage strategy that I like to use occasionally to mix up my betting patterns.

This strategy is profitable and is a good way of taking extra value from the bookies.

If you are unfamiliar with arbitrage and want to learn about arbitrage betting. I recommend reading this excellent resource on arbitrage betting.

This strategy as it is a good way of moving money from bookmakers to exchanges but also getting some value in the process.

First off you are going to need a low commission betting exchange such as Smarkets or Matchbook and bookmakers that offer best odds guaranteed.

To find bookmakers that offer best odds guaranteed use oddschecker and look for a green tick box along the line noted at “best odds guaranteed.”

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy

First off we look for a horse that is a close back and lay price at a BOG(Best Odds Guaranteed) bookmaker (back) and low commission exchange (lay).

For this example I will use Smarkets.

In the picture above you will see the horse Copper Baked is priced at 1.91 with a number BOG bookmakers.

We can offer a lay price that matches the current BOG bookmaker prices. When the lay bet gets matched we then place the back bet at a BOG bookmaker.

From the above you can see that if the odds on Copper Baked stays the same price or comes in further we stand to win £90.90 for Bet365 and lose £90.01 from Smarkets for a £0.89p profit.

If Copper Baked loses we win £100 minus the 2% commission from Smarkets £98 and lose the £100 from Bet365.

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy

The key to this method is the large potential upside from the BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) promotion. The Best Odds Guarantee promotion means that if a horses starting price drifts after you backed it you will get paid at the higher starting price.

So if Copper Baked price drifts before the off. With the starting price going off at a price higher then 1.9 then Bet365 would pay out at its starting price under the BOG promotion.

For example if Copper Baked drifted to 2.5 before the off and won we would then be paid £150 by Bet365 and lose only £90 from Smarkets. This would equal a profit of £60 when our risk of loss was only ever £2.

In this example we get a horse rated at 2.5 for odds of 31.0. This does happen fairly regularly in the horse racing markets.

From using this method there is always a much larger upside then there is downside.

Also by sticking to shorter favourites. It doesn’t look like conventional arbitrage to the bookmakers.

This method is a great way of building your trading bank alongside matched betting and arbitrage.

In order to make the most of this horse racing arbitrage strategy you will need an exchange that offers lower commission then Betfair.

Although this strategy is still profitable with Betfair it is much more profitable if you can access the 0% commission deals available with some bookmakers.

In the long term paying 2% less commission is going to going to add to much greater profits.

You can get 0% commission on both Smarkets and Matchbook by joining Oddsmonkey They offer a number of horse racing markets with ever increasing liquidity.

Alongside a host of other valuable tools that will allow you to make money from the sports betting markets.

Tony Hargraves Badger Review Follow Up

So the review that I did on two of Tony Hargraves “The Badger’s” ebooks have been receiving a lot of attention. You can read the reviews here.

The intention of the review was to raise the awareness. That “The Badger” may not be as successful as he claims to be. And that you should bear that in mind when purchasing his products.

I could have left a neutral review stuck up an affiliate link and profited from “The Badgers” products. Having bought poor trading products before. I know how disappointing it is to spend hard earned money on something that offers little to no value.

Tony Hargraves is a great self promoter if you google him you will see a lot of courses and videos etc on how much money he makes from his trading. If you have been involved or around trading communities for a while though you get to see things from a slightly different perspective.

Below is some suggested reading.

Choose Your Trading Mentors Carefully

So some of this probably lacks some context. But if you have been around trading communities for a few years you see a lot of the “Badgers” business ventures surface and come under a lot of scrutiny.

Just as an example his trading advice service has no results page and isn’t proofed anywhere. Although in the past there had been a results page. But when results went sour it disappeared a tactic many scam tipsters use (again use your own judgement).

His affiliation with Steve Davidson who is a guy that seems to pump out a automated “winning” systems on a weekly basis. Also adds fuel to the fire that the Badger may not be as legitimate as he claims.

You can read their affiliated product here.

There have been youtube videos where he uses progressive staking to get out losing trading position. Which doesn’t make much sense coming a seasoned professional trader.

You don’t see this type of negativity towards other notable Betfair Traders like Peter Webb, Caan Berry, Mark Iverson or Paulo Rebelo.

If you have purchased a product from Tony Hargraves and felt that it has aided you in learning to trade more profitably then that is great. My own opinion though is that the products I reviewed are over priced, poor value and his claims over exaggerated.

I believe that there is much better information available for free on the internet and trading products for similar price tags which offer much much more.

Personally I have found https://www.itsamugsblog.co.uk/ to be an excellent free resource for anyone aspring to make money from the horse racing markets. Which in my opinion offers much more value then anything I have read or watched from “The Badger.”

The Sports Trader Review and Racing Trader Review

In this article I am going to review two of Tony Hargreaves aka “The Badger” trading ebooks.

The first part of this article will focus on the sports trader review whilst the second part will look at the racing trader review.

If you are not familiar with the sportstrader take a look here

Sports Trader reviews — The Badger or the Blagger?

I have been interested in looking at Tony Hargreaves ebooks for a while as in the sports trading community he has a somewhat patchy reputation.

He is a self proclaimed professional Betfair trader and also offer training courses for people looking to take there trading to a professional level.

On sports trading forums however he has also been nicknamed “The Blagger” with some believing that he makes his living from his ebooks, courses and training with his actual Betfair Trading skills being questionable.

Sports Trader Review – Strategy Guide

The first ebook I am going to review is the sports trader strategy guide.

The ebook briefly outlines 16 strategies and costs £39.99 it covers football, Tennis, Cricket, Greyhound, Rugby and horse racing.

The strategies are fairly basic and there isn’t much depth to any of them in fact you could find similar strategies browsing betting and trading forums online.

There aren’t any long term results shown with the strategies they are normally accompanied by a picture of a winning screen and “The Badger” writing that this strategy works most of the time.

Conclusion

For £39.99 I don’t think this strategy guide offers any value at all.

All of the strategies are very basic for example one “strategy” is the total sum of 4 lines!

I would not recommend this manual even to beginners as there is a lot of free content available that offers more.

The ebook is poorly written and the strategies lack any real depth or explanation.

What you will see mostly in this ebook are screens of winning trades and a very small amount of actual strategy.

Sports Trader Review – Racing Trader Review

If I hadn’t been actively learning to trade the horse racing markets this last year then maybe I would have a slightly different opinion on this book.

If I hadn’t come across Caan Berry or Itsamugsblogs horse racing content maybe this book would have came across a little better.

So the Racing Trader costs £60 and focuses on the horse racing markets. If you buy this ebook you get to see lots of winning trades and read how Tony Hargreaves made 61 winning trades in a row!

The same issues apply to the racing trader that were present in the sports trader strategy guide there is no real depth to the strategies discussed.

It all just seems as a way for the “The Blagger” sorry the “The Badger” to show how awesome he is at trading.

There is a lot of fundamental information regarding horse racing that is missing from this book.

I feel that if you were to trade the horse racing markets based on the information in this book you would lose money and the book would not give you the answers why.

This book simplifies the horse racing markets and focuses more on how much money you can make rather then going deep into the process of making consistently good trades.

So then do I think that Tony Hargreaves is full of crap and a snake oil salesman?

I think its a possibility or maybe he is just very bad at writing down the process of how he trades so profitably.

Conclusion

My main issue with these expensive ebooks is that they are sold on the premise that you are getting expert advice from a professional trader.

The information and content in these books though is very basic and doesn’t provide the depth of information you expect from a “professional trader.”

I would recommend you don’t buy anything that Tony Hargreaves is selling there is free information that is much better then what he offers in either of these ebooks.

Its get 0.5 star rating for me, the price tags are ridiculous for me and the books offer very little value.

I wrote a follow up to this review here due to some discussion this review caused.

Here are my recommendations for free material that in my opinion offer a lot more value then the “The Badgers” products.

Peter Webb’s Youtube Channel

Caan Berry Website

Itsamugsblogs

Lay The Draw Tips 2024

Lay The Draw Tips

Lay the draw seems to be the first trading strategy that people learn when they get into Betfair Trading. It is a strategy that has been around since the birth of Betfair and still holds a lot of appeal even in 2024.

So what is the lay the draw strategy?

The strategy involves laying the draw at the start of the game then waiting for a goal to be scored and backing the draw at higher odds for a profit.

Lay the draw tips — Laying the draw pre match

As time has gone on this strategy has become less popular and less profitable as the Betfair markets have matured. The odds on the draw don’t move as much as they did 6-7 years ago.

So the big question is?

Is lay the draw still profitable?

Yes lay the draw is still a profitable trading and betting strategy even in 2024.

Watch this video on YouTube

There are multiple people using lay the draw to still profit from the markets.

It is a strategy that you can take multiple approaches with.

A favorite approach of mine when it comes to laying the draw is entering in second half. By laying the draw in the second half we get lower odds and a higher profit margin from one goal is scored. Obviously this means that you have to find a game that meets the conditions but it is a good low risk higher reward approach for laying the draw.

Lay The Draw Tips

These are the conditions that are favourable when you are looking to lay the draw in football.

Trading Football — PSG needed goals against Man City

Favourite needs the win

The favourite to be really pushing for the goal and leaving space to be countered.
A team that is chasing the title, European qualification, needs a goal to progress in the cup. You want pressure on that to team to score in front of home crowd.

Underdog can counter

You don’t want to lay the draw if the underdog is just sitting back and holding out for a draw. I would back the favourite instead if it was one way traffic.
The underdog should look like they can score, have a pacy forward running after long balls or wingers that break on the counter.

Form and stats

Teams that have a tendency to score at home.
Teams that score/concede more goals in the second half

Resources For Lay The Draw

There are some very good resources if you are looking to find historical data on teams for a pre match lay the draw strategy. Also you can look at optimal goal times scored if you are looking to employ an in-play lay the draw approach.

Below we have listed some of our favourite resources.

www.soccerstats.com

www.whoscored.com

Sports Betting Bankroll Management

What is a sports betting bankroll?

In the simplest terms a sports betting bankroll is an amount of money that we set aside for sports betting. We don’t use it to pay the rent or bills it is a completely separate investment that is solely used for sports betting.

As somebody that has been betting on sports and trading sports for a living the past two years I can say one of the biggest factors in being successful in both is treating them as a business and having proper bankroll management. Lets look at the difference between good and bad bankroll management.

First lets look at bad bankroll management.

What is a sports betting bankroll Bobby — Bobby the bad sports bettor

This is Bobby the bad sports bettor. Bobby has a spare £100 every week after he has bought food, paid the bills etc. Bobby isn’t bad at finding value bets however he no idea of good bankroll management.

Bobby likes to make two bets a week for £50 each, if they win next week he splits his winnings into two bets again and bets for example £100 on each game. Bobby does this until he either reaches a total of £1000 and withdraws or loses his money and starts again.

He does not think long term or record his bets but for every time Bobby reaches £1000 he loses £3700 trying to get there. Bobby is a losing sports bettor.

Sports Betting Bankroll Management

Lets look at good bankroll management. Bobby learns good bankroll management and decides to put aside some of his wage that he has for recreational use.

Bobby has a bankroll of £1000 and uses bets between 2% to 5% of bankroll depending on the odds. When Bobby bets on odds between 1.5-2.0 he uses 2-3% bets, odds below 1.5 he uses 3-5% of his bankroll and bets above 2.0 he uses 1-2%.

This is very solid bankroll management and allows a very steady progression in his bankroll. Bobby records his bets and sees over a year that for every £1000 he bets he is making a profit of £55. Bobby bets £10,000 that year and makes £550 in profit for a 5.5% return on his investment.

Bobby has become a winning sports bettor as he has learnt proper bankroll management.

I hope this answers the question what is a sports betting bankroll?

Whilst also giving some pointers on good and bad bankroll management.

Useful resources and links

Profitable betting strategy

Using the Kelly criterion for betting

Profitable betting strategy – Don’t discount short odds

All bettors hope to stumble upon a profitable betting strategy and sometimes they can be fairly simple.

So I have admitted to being somewhat of a gambling geek I have spent lots of time reading forums, blogs, books and whatever I can get my hands on that is betting/trading related.

I am always looking for a profitable betting strategy. One theory that I found interesting is the favourite-longshot bias in betting.

Here is some reading material for some of you that this might interest.

https://www.gamblingonlinemagazine.com/gambling-features.php?articleID=35

https://www.football-data.co.uk/blog/favourite_longshot_bias_football.php

https://www.progambler.co.uk/favourite-longshot-bias-in-fixed-odds-football-markets/

In a nutshell if you don’t want to read through those articles it shows that by blindly betting on every favourite you would lose a lot less then if you blindly bet on every underdog.

Bookmakers exploited the fact that a punter was more likely to back at higher odds. Given the chance to risk say £10 to win £90 then they would be to risk £10 to win £2.50. This lead to longer odds being much poorer value and further away from the real implied odds.

It indicates that is easier to find value in favourites then it is to do so in underdogs. A lot of the research I have read was from many years ago so I wanted to see if this trend is still prevalent in today’s markets.

Profitable betting strategy

Looking at Pyckio a tipster site that has ranked thousands of tipsters we can see that the number one tipster bets at average odds of 1.28 (at the time of writing) going by the name of PistolPete with 6.1% yield over 568 bets.

He has achieved this by betting exclusively on low odds in Tennis. This is one indicator that the favourite-longshot bias is still prevalent at least in Tennis.

Profitable betting strategy — Betting short odds on tennis has shown to be profitable.

My second indicator was a service called Banker Bets which also focuses its betting on short odds over varying sports.

Over two years the service has banked an increase of 192.90% to the average available odds (meaning this could have been bettered by selecting the best odds available at the time.)

Spurred on by the success of the two above tipsters I then looked at how I could emulate their success and improve upon it. Another profitable betting strategy or theory known as value betting or chasing steam exists.

It basically states that by bettering the odds available at the sharpest bookmakers Pinnacle, SBObet etc in efficient markets such as the Premier League you will have a value bet. A value bet is a bet that has a greater chance of winning then the odds imply.

This wasn’t too difficult to do especially at the lower odds. Bookmakers such Ladbrokes, Betvictor and William Hill often had better odds then the sharper bookmakers. The exchange Smarkets with its 2% commission alongside another low commission exchange Matchbook also often provided greater odds then the sharpest bookmakers could offer on several occasions.

Using these two theories alongside some filters such as no injuries to key players, no heavy weather conditions, no major changes to a side I have small yet profitable sample size of bets to suggest this is worth continuing with.

From October 2015 to February the 14th I looked at home teams between the odds of 1.2-1.6. I only bet on teams that I was familiar with and had easy access to likely team formations, general team news etc.

The teams I chose were

Man City
Arsenal
Man Utd
Chelsea
Tottenham
PSG
Juventus
Atletico Madrid

After 53 bets at a level stake of £100 per bet the profit and loss was £618 with an ROI of 11.6%. The only overall losing teams over this period were Chelsea with a loss of -166 from £700 staked and Man Utd with a loss of -29 from £600 staked.

This is a small sample size however it is encouraging and with in play betting and trading an option there are ways which may improve this method.

For example teams such as Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Real Madrid that often start home games as 1.1 or below. In cases such as these we could explore the half time market or over 1.5 goals market in play.

There are many angles to take with this type of betting/trading.

I hope that this article has given you some insight into the profits that can be obtained from short odds. It could be a betting angle that is worth looking into.

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

Check out our recommendations below.

How to trade the horses pre race as a beginner

Last week I reviewed Caan Berrys pre race trading guide and gave it a recommendation.

In the past week the football schedule was pretty lacklustre and I decided to delve into the horse markets.

I don’t like horse racing to be honest I find it very boring however as a trader I can see that it is probably the market with the most opportunities for trading.

Now I have tried to trade these markets two or three times before but it had always followed a similar pattern.

Win a little lose a lot more then I’d won and say to myself “f*** these stupid markets its impossible to trade them.”

This week I approached the markets with a different mindset and some help from Caan Berrys pre race trading guide and things started to click. I was making money cutting my losses earlier and starting to read the movements in the markets much more clearly.

Pre race trading horses — and stayed consistent

Top 5 tips for new traders approaching the horse racing markets

1. Don’t go in to a market expecting to make money

If you go in with this mindset it will be hard to accept a red should you need to, often this will lead to a bigger red.

Go in with the mindset that you will look for the best opportunities and take advantage of them if you see them. If you can’t see them that’s fine there are plenty more races to come.

2. Make notes and review your performance

Don’t rush from market to market take a step back and note down what you learnt from the last race market.

When did the big money come in? what happened to the favourite that had steamed in under 2.0 with 5 minutes still left? Was the market steady or volatile? ask yourself a few questions and write down the answers is there a pattern?

3. Remember to breathe

The horse racing markets move quick and you can get flustered, pissed off or bewildered. Its important to clear your head from time to time. Before a race or even mid race if I am struggling I will take a few deep breathes to regain my focus and slow things down.

Honestly in all of my trading/betting activities this has helped me the most. Removing the fog and retaining clear thinking throughout the day has been a huge factor in becoming a profitable trader.

4. Start Small

Sounds obvious but at this stage of your development as a trader you want to remove the stress and allow yourself to learn from the markets. It is a lot easier to keep this mindset when the losses are in pence rather then pounds.

5. Patience

Give yourself time don’t expect too much to soon. You might not see results straight away but don’t give up it is often just a case of persistently gaining experience combined with persistent analysis that leads to becoming a profitable trader.

Serious about trading the horses? This guide is one the best investments you could make.

Pro X Trading Review

In this article I am going to write my views on the Pro X Trading mentoring program. Here is my Pro X trading review where I will review the X traders part of the service.

If you haven’t heard of Pro X Trading take a look here:

https://www.proxtrading.com/sports-trading/

What is Pro X Trading?

Pro X Trading is a Betfair mentoring product which looks to educate its members on how to successfully trade the Betfair markets for a profit. It is run by professional trader Matt Finnigan and has been running since 2007. The cost of this service is normally £150 with a £60 recurring fee every four months.

What do you get?

Over 60 trading strategies on across four sports Football, Cricket, Tennis and American Football. A sports trader course, one to one advice with Matt Finnigan and hosted trading sessions every week.

The Good –

I had been trading full time for around 6 months mainly on the football markets and thought that the X traders part of Pro X trading might provide some additional knowledge to help me profit from football and also give me a chance to look at other sports that I may trade in the future.

The strategies are all in video format and are clear and professionally produced. They give you the odds range, staking, entry and exit points for each strategy. There is a timeline for the football strategies which explains the optimal times to use these strategies.

Overall I was very happy with the amount of content available on signing up. The sports trader course was is aimed at new traders but reaffirmed a few things that even experienced traders can benefit from going again.

The Football strategies made sense to me and were explained clearly. I don’t have a lot of experience trading the other 3 sports however I noted down these strategies and all of them had sound reasoning and staking built into them.

The Bad-

My initial impressions of the service were that it was very professionally run and I was excited to be part of mentoring program however there were quite a few things that changed this.

Customer service was poor –

The product is fairly expensive so after signing up to the service I was very keen on going through the strategies and viewing one of the hosted sessions on a Saturday. The website was then down for a few days so I couldn’t access the strategies. It was put up again just before the hosted trading session.

There wasn’t any warning that the site would be down for this period. I sent Matt an email asking to put in the Skype group and asked when the site would be back up. I never received a reply and never received an invite to the Skype trading room. I felt this was quite poor for such an expensive and then at least a courtesy email would have been polite.

The Upsell –

Again at £150 this isn’t a cheap product so to have Matts other products or affiliate products pushed on you after you join up I found very off putting. In the sports trader course you have a horse racing upsell in the one of the strategies without purchasing such product the strategy won’t work that well.

Matt says that pre match trading should be a corner stone of your football trading and goes into around 80% of games with a pre match trade. I agree and uses this a lot in my portfolio .

However the trading session don’t open early enough for Matt to share his own pre match trades. In fact how Matt offers to help with pre match trading is to sell his X-base database that offer pre match prices which may help you see which direction a pre match trade is moving.

Maybe these are discussed in the Skype trading room your supposed to have access too but I never received an invite so wouldn’t know.

Lack of Transparency –

In the hosted trading rooms some strategies are called out whilst others are left to yourself to determine whether you should enter the market or not. I don’t really mind this however viewing the hosted trading session a few things stood out to me.

At the end of every profitable session Matt would ask for peoples profit figures. You would then get 10 to 20 answers of whatever percentage profit people achieved, this is cool everyone likes to celebrate their wins. There was a day with two clear losing sessions.Matt never asked anyone about the losses barely anything was said. As a trader I know that losses are inevitable and it is as important as anything to learn how to lose. It seemed strange to me that this was brushed over and not discussed.
In one session a strategy that is taught about making money from scalping time decay was in use, a goal was scored which meant there would be losses to all involved.When a member asked Matt if he has been caught out he replied that he’d used a different strategy and was out before the goal. However he never mentioned this previously in the session. Again this was strange to me that a strategy taught by Matt himself was not used and in a live session hosted by Matt no advice was given as to why he used a different trade.

Overall Verdict-

I have a hard time rating this product as it has some good aspects to it. The video content is very good and clearly written, I do believe that Matt Finnigan is a good trader and makes money from the Betfair markets. But there is also a lot of salesmanship techniques and poor customer service/communication for such an expensive product.

I think the bad points outweigh the positives.

I believe that there are better and cheaper options on the market so in this Pro x trading review I will score it an overall rating of

2/5

https://www.proxtrading.com/sports-trading/

Swing Trading Football Strategies

Short Term Scalping

Key things to consider

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy

Suggested Reading

Choose Your Trading Mentors Carefully

Sports Trader Review – Strategy Guide

Conclusion

Sports Trader Review – Racing Trader Review

Conclusion

Lay The Draw Tips

Is lay the draw still profitable?

Lay The Draw Tips

What is a sports betting bankroll?

Sports Betting Bankroll Management

Useful resources and links

Profitable betting strategy

Profitable betting strategy – Don’t discount short odds

Profitable betting strategy

Top 5 tips for new traders approaching the horse racing markets

Pro X Trading Review

What is Pro X Trading?

What do you get?

The Good –

The Bad-

Customer service was poor –

The Upsell –

Lack of Transparency –

Overall Verdict-

2/5