Mastering Tennis Trading Review – An Expert’s Insight

Mastering Tennis Trading is a book written by respected professional tennis trader Dan Weston.

Dan Weston has written articles for Pinnacle and Matchbook. He also runs the site https://www.tennisratings.co.uk/ which has lots of good articles on tennis trading and betting.

Mastering Tennis Trading Review

The book mastering tennis trading is as the name implies all about trading the tennis markets on betting exchanges.

I don’t trade tennis myself but I always love to read how professional traders approach trading the betting exchanges. This book does a great job of that and has really given me the motivation to take a much deeper look at trading tennis in 2017.

Mastering Tennis Trading is a total of 117 pages long. It starts with a basic introduction to tennis trading and how to setup yourself up when you are trading. General aspects of the betting exchanges are also explained such as price increments, laying, liquidity etc.

After the general introduction different trading strategies and situations are discussed in detail. One recurring theme that I really liked about this book is the use of data to explain why a trade had or might have a positive expectation.

Mastering Tennis Trading covers quite a large number of trading situations with the main topics including

Pre-match trading
Projected service holds
Pre-match lay to back in-play
Backing favourites when losing
Laying bad servers
Pressure situations
Backing the server
Tiebreak trading
In-game trades
At the end of the first set
The deciding set
Dangerous situations
Psychology risk and bankroll management

So you can see from the above that this book is very thorough and covers pretty much all aspects of trading tennis.

Mastering Tennis Trading Review

Final Verdict

I really enjoyed reading this book and felt that I was getting expert advice from somebody that is trading the tennis markets profitably for a living. Mastering Tennis Trading does an excellent job of explaining the basics of trading tennis and then progresses to show well explained examples of how you can find profitable angles within the tennis markets.

This book gets a clear recommendation from me. It is well written, easy to follow and would add a huge amount of value to anyone that was looking to trade tennis on the exchanges.

It gets a five star rating from me.

<br />

(This article features affiliate links. This means that if you choose to make a purchase, I will earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you. I use or have used any product I review. If I recommend them it is because I believe they are helpful, useful and offer value to their customers. Please do not spend any money on these products unless you feel they will give you value or that they will help you achieve your goals.)

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Variance can be defined as the expectation of the squared deviation of a random variable from its mean, and it informally measures how far a set of (random) numbers are spread out from their mean.

If you struggled with that don’t worry your not alone. This definition doesn’t help those of us that are not very mathematically minded but there is a simpler way of looking at variance.

Variance is one of the key reasons why a lot of people struggle with sports trading and betting. It is something that I myself struggled with a lot when I first started sports trading and betting.

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting — Heads or Tails?

If we look at a coin flip there are two outcomes heads and tails. An equally weighted coin means that there is a 50% chance of it landing on either heads or tails. The nature of variance however means that if we flipped a coin a 100 times it may land on heads 63 times and tails 37 times or heads 44 times and tails 56 times.

The results of a 100 coin tosses would not be exactly 50/50 very often.

We know however that with a fair coin toss the odds are 50/50. With a greater volume of coin tosses the number of heads and tails recorded should move closer to evens.

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Variance exists in sports trading and betting. There are several variables that we need to take into account when we looking at variance in our own betting and trading results.

We need to be aware of the odds that we betting/trading, the sample size of results that we have and what our expected edge is in the market we are trading or betting in.

It is important to develop a better understanding of variance as a sports bettor or trader. When we don’t understand something it often to leads to feelings of frustration and anger.

These feeling often have a negative effect on our sports trading. By breaking down and understanding the different aspects of sports trading we become better more profitable traders.

I am not an expert in probability and statistics it is something I am constantly learning about and trying to develop a greater understanding of. Luckily we live in an age were we can easily access articles and books published by experts in these fields.

Here is some recommended reading if you want to develop a better understanding of variance.

Its all about variance

Luck vs skill in sports betting

Treat Your Sports Trading Like A Business

The first time that I really took gambling seriously was when I started to play online poker. A big influence on me managing to make a consistent profit from poker was from a book called “how to treat poker like a business.“

One of the best poker books I have read.

Now sports betting and trading are different from the game of poker but a lot of the same principles apply. In this article I will look at how to treat your sports trading like a business.

Treat Your Sports Trading Like A Business

Record Keeping

So lets start with what might be the most boring aspect but also one of the most important.

You need to be recording your trades and bets. Its important to see where you are making money and where you are losing money. What is the most profitable part of your trading business is it pre match trades, inplay, favourites, underdogs etc.

All good businesses will have detailed record keeping to know where they are making their profit and look at where they may be potentially losing money.

It is fairly easy to keep on top of this with so many software programs available to help with record keeping.

Recommendations

Open Office

Bettings

Look at the small margins

Small margins amount to big profits in the long term. Increasing a profit margin by 2% or 3% is going to make a huge difference to your profit over the course of a year.

One of the best ways of looking to increase those small profit margins is to look at Matchbook and Smarkets.

This year I have really looked a lot more at Matchbook and Smarkets as obviously the 3% commission difference between these exchanges and Betfair is a big factor.

Betfair is still the most ideal platform for trading it has the most liquid markets and the most real punters. There are markets you can trade on Betfair that you couldn’t on either Matchbook or Smarkets.

Matchbook and Smarkets are however growing and you see more and more liquidity becoming available in these markets. If I am looking to make a standard bet or pre match trade on the bigger football leagues its Smarkets and Matchbook that I look to use ahead of Betfair.

If you can transfer some of your trading or betting to Matchbook or Smarkets then its going to make you are lot more profitable in the long term.

Invest in your sports trading business

If you are treating your trading like a business then you should not be afraid to invest or reinvest some money into it. Even simple investments like a comfortable chair or extra monitor might pay dividends in the long run.

Don't be afraid to put money back into your trading. — Sports Trading and betting could be looked at as your new startup business.

If you prepared to invest in a more formal trading education there are some good traders out there that are offering face to face courses. Peter Webb, Steve Howe and Caan Berry all offer courses that focus on trading the horse racing markets.

If you are trading fast moving markets then you should probably look at using some api software such as Geeks Toy, Bet Angel or Gruss.

You can take a look at some of my recommended betting and trading products to see if there are any that would benefit your sports trading business.

Structure

Structure is very important in trading and betting. You really want to structure your trading and betting to be as efficient as possible.

Successful business’s don’t trade at random and erratic times. They have a structure in place to capitalize on the most profitable times and most profitable customers.

You want to do the same. You want to make sure you are trading when the best opportunities are available.

What is the best day to take off? When should I spend time with friends/family? How can I trade around work?

Spend some time structuring how and when you are going to trade. This can make a big difference to your mentality and help maintain discipline when trading.

If you treat your trading and betting like a serious business you have a much greater chance of making it a success.

Sports Arbitrage For A Living – Interview

Over my years of betting and trading I have come into contact with a lot of different people that make money betting and trading.

One person that I have learnt quite a lot from is my friend Matt who has been doing sports arbitrage for a living now for the last five years.

Sports Arbitrage For A Living

An Interview with a full time arber

SST: First of all thanks for doing this interview Matt. My first question is how did you get started with sports arbitrage?

Matt: Well I had been messing around with betting for a few years pretty unsuccessfully. I came across the concept of sports arbitrage in 2008.

I started off very small and made maybe £30 in the first month but saw that it worked and gradually built it up.

SST: Were you doing matched betting to start with or straight arbitrage?

Matt: I started off with straight arbitrage between Pinnacle and Bwin and then started doing some matched betting or bonus scalping as people were calling it then.

SST: Has the landscape of sports arbitrage changed much since you first started?

Matt:Yes it is always changing. Bookmakers tolerated it more at first. I don’t think there were too many people doing.

The landscape is always changing with new laws and regulations coming in. I think that is why there is skill in becoming a good arbitrage bettor. You always have to adapt.

Full Time Arbitrage

SST: When and why did you decide to go full time with sports arbitrage betting?

Matt: In 2010 my total profits from arbitrage betting were more then my yearly wage. I had made around £40k which was more then my yearly salary.

I weighed up the risk and reward. I realised I could make more money from arbitrage. I didn’t have a great job so there was no issue leaving it.

SST: How have you managed to make a living from sports arbitrage the last five years when bookmakers limit accounts?

Matt: Its not been easy but I have learnt a few trends that bookmakers have. Some hate you taking arbs on horse racing but you can get away with other types of arbitrage for a long time.

Then you have exchanges, I live in the UK so there is also shop arbing. I have done a lot of the casino bonus stuff in the last few years also. There are lots of ways to make money from the bookies if you are creative.

I also have a deal with a few friends and family members where I act as an advisor of sorts and manage their accounts. I pay them 10% of the profits that I make each month and its a good deal for everyone.

SST: I understand. If someone wanted to get into sports arbitrage what would your advise be.

Matt: Everyone seems to be matched betting these days I would start with that.

Start small and don’t put all your money in one bookmaker. Use trusted bookmakers that have been around for a while. As there are quite a few shady ones that operate and will steal your money.

SST: Which bookmakers do you suggest using?

Matt: Use all the ones from oddschecker.com they are all pretty good. Avoid ones that just arrived on the scene as many don’t last such as Bet666.

Start off with the major bookmakers Bet365 and William Hill for example.

SST: Any other advice?

Matt: Don’t worry about account limitation people get hung up on this. You will get accounts limited but new reputable bookmakers start up and then a whole new money stream opens up again.

If you really work at it its a great way to earn a very nice second income. If you really make the most of it then it can become a full time occupation.

SST: Cheers Matt thanks for you time.

If you want to start profiting from sports betting, arbitrage and trading. I recommend this service which is currently contributing the biggest profit in my 50k in a year challenge.

Betfair Scalping – Football Trading Strategies

In this article I am going to write about finding the best opportunities for scalping the football markets.

Swing Trading Football Strategies

Big name player gets injured

One of the most profitable strategies for scalping the football markets is to take advantage of injuries that occur in play. I will use an example from the Euro 2016 final.

During the first half of the Euro 2016 final Portugal’s star player Cristiano Ronaldo went down injured and looked like he could not continue.

In a matter of minutes Portugals price flew out from 4.5 to around 5.2. This enabled traders who reacted quickly to make around 13% profit on their stake.

This example is a more of a swing trade and it doesn’t happen that often. If you aware and act quick enough though there is good profit to made from little risk.

(In the 2018 Champions League final this also happened when Mo Salah got injured for Liverpool.)

Short Term Scalping

Killing Time

One of my favourite times to scalp a market is when one team is deliberately killing time and faking injuries.

Italian games are good for scalping opportunities

This a common scenario when an underdog is leading a game and time is ticking down during the second half. The key to being profitable in this scenario is having quick enough pictures and recognizing which teams have a tendency to stall the play.

In this scenario you have the option of laying the losing favourite or laying the overs market. You should be able to gain a few ticks each time doing this again with very low risk.

There are other opportunities for scalping the football markets on Betfair but these are two with the lowest risk.

Key things to consider

Here are a few key things to consider when you are scalping the football markets on Betfair.

How fast are your pictures?

– You really need the fastest pictures available, if you are streaming with a 20 second delay then you are going to be behind the majority of the market.

How liquid is the market you are trading?

-If you are trading a Champions League game you should have no problem getting in and out of the market.

-If you are trading a low level FA Cup game on a wet Wednesday night the opportunity to scalp properly is probably not going to be there.

What is you risk vs reward ratio?

-What is your profit percentage each time you enter a scalp trade?

-How much of your bank are you willing to lose should something go against you?

When used in the right situations scalping can be a good way of building some very low risks profits during a game of football.

I hope these Betfair scalping football trading strategies have given you a few more options to think about.

(In order to scalp successfully on Betfair you will need to use some software that allows quick entries and exits into the markets. I currently use Geeks toy having found this to be the quickest and one of the most efficient pieces of software available.)

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy – Small Risk For A Large Payoff

In this article I am going to detail a horse racing arbitrage strategy that I like to use occasionally to mix up my betting patterns.

This strategy is profitable and is a good way of taking extra value from the bookies.

If you are unfamiliar with arbitrage and want to learn about arbitrage betting. I recommend reading this excellent resource on arbitrage betting.

This strategy as it is a good way of moving money from bookmakers to exchanges but also getting some value in the process.

First off you are going to need a low commission betting exchange such as Smarkets or Matchbook and bookmakers that offer best odds guaranteed.

To find bookmakers that offer best odds guaranteed use oddschecker and look for a green tick box along the line noted at “best odds guaranteed.”

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy

First off we look for a horse that is a close back and lay price at a BOG(Best Odds Guaranteed) bookmaker (back) and low commission exchange (lay).

For this example I will use Smarkets.

In the picture above you will see the horse Copper Baked is priced at 1.91 with a number BOG bookmakers.

We can offer a lay price that matches the current BOG bookmaker prices. When the lay bet gets matched we then place the back bet at a BOG bookmaker.

From the above you can see that if the odds on Copper Baked stays the same price or comes in further we stand to win £90.90 for Bet365 and lose £90.01 from Smarkets for a £0.89p profit.

If Copper Baked loses we win £100 minus the 2% commission from Smarkets £98 and lose the £100 from Bet365.

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy

The key to this method is the large potential upside from the BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) promotion. The Best Odds Guarantee promotion means that if a horses starting price drifts after you backed it you will get paid at the higher starting price.

So if Copper Baked price drifts before the off. With the starting price going off at a price higher then 1.9 then Bet365 would pay out at its starting price under the BOG promotion.

For example if Copper Baked drifted to 2.5 before the off and won we would then be paid £150 by Bet365 and lose only £90 from Smarkets. This would equal a profit of £60 when our risk of loss was only ever £2.

In this example we get a horse rated at 2.5 for odds of 31.0. This does happen fairly regularly in the horse racing markets.

From using this method there is always a much larger upside then there is downside.

Also by sticking to shorter favourites. It doesn’t look like conventional arbitrage to the bookmakers.

This method is a great way of building your trading bank alongside matched betting and arbitrage.

In order to make the most of this horse racing arbitrage strategy you will need an exchange that offers lower commission then Betfair.

Although this strategy is still profitable with Betfair it is much more profitable if you can access the 0% commission deals available with some bookmakers.

In the long term paying 2% less commission is going to going to add to much greater profits.

You can get 0% commission on both Smarkets and Matchbook by joining Oddsmonkey They offer a number of horse racing markets with ever increasing liquidity.

Alongside a host of other valuable tools that will allow you to make money from the sports betting markets.

Tony Hargraves Badger Review Follow Up

So the review that I did on two of Tony Hargraves “The Badger’s” ebooks have been receiving a lot of attention. You can read the reviews here.

The intention of the review was to raise the awareness. That “The Badger” may not be as successful as he claims to be. And that you should bear that in mind when purchasing his products.

I could have left a neutral review stuck up an affiliate link and profited from “The Badgers” products. Having bought poor trading products before. I know how disappointing it is to spend hard earned money on something that offers little to no value.

Tony Hargraves is a great self promoter if you google him you will see a lot of courses and videos etc on how much money he makes from his trading. If you have been involved or around trading communities for a while though you get to see things from a slightly different perspective.

Below is some suggested reading.

Choose Your Trading Mentors Carefully

So some of this probably lacks some context. But if you have been around trading communities for a few years you see a lot of the “Badgers” business ventures surface and come under a lot of scrutiny.

Just as an example his trading advice service has no results page and isn’t proofed anywhere. Although in the past there had been a results page. But when results went sour it disappeared a tactic many scam tipsters use (again use your own judgement).

His affiliation with Steve Davidson who is a guy that seems to pump out a automated “winning” systems on a weekly basis. Also adds fuel to the fire that the Badger may not be as legitimate as he claims.

You can read their affiliated product here.

There have been youtube videos where he uses progressive staking to get out losing trading position. Which doesn’t make much sense coming a seasoned professional trader.

You don’t see this type of negativity towards other notable Betfair Traders like Peter Webb, Caan Berry, Mark Iverson or Paulo Rebelo.

If you have purchased a product from Tony Hargraves and felt that it has aided you in learning to trade more profitably then that is great. My own opinion though is that the products I reviewed are over priced, poor value and his claims over exaggerated.

I believe that there is much better information available for free on the internet and trading products for similar price tags which offer much much more.

Personally I have found https://www.itsamugsblog.co.uk/ to be an excellent free resource for anyone aspring to make money from the horse racing markets. Which in my opinion offers much more value then anything I have read or watched from “The Badger.”

The Sports Trader Review and Racing Trader Review

In this article I am going to review two of Tony Hargreaves aka “The Badger” trading ebooks.

The first part of this article will focus on the sports trader review whilst the second part will look at the racing trader review.

If you are not familiar with the sportstrader take a look here

Sports Trader reviews — The Badger or the Blagger?

I have been interested in looking at Tony Hargreaves ebooks for a while as in the sports trading community he has a somewhat patchy reputation.

He is a self proclaimed professional Betfair trader and also offer training courses for people looking to take there trading to a professional level.

On sports trading forums however he has also been nicknamed “The Blagger” with some believing that he makes his living from his ebooks, courses and training with his actual Betfair Trading skills being questionable.

Sports Trader Review – Strategy Guide

The first ebook I am going to review is the sports trader strategy guide.

The ebook briefly outlines 16 strategies and costs £39.99 it covers football, Tennis, Cricket, Greyhound, Rugby and horse racing.

The strategies are fairly basic and there isn’t much depth to any of them in fact you could find similar strategies browsing betting and trading forums online.

There aren’t any long term results shown with the strategies they are normally accompanied by a picture of a winning screen and “The Badger” writing that this strategy works most of the time.

Conclusion

For £39.99 I don’t think this strategy guide offers any value at all.

All of the strategies are very basic for example one “strategy” is the total sum of 4 lines!

I would not recommend this manual even to beginners as there is a lot of free content available that offers more.

The ebook is poorly written and the strategies lack any real depth or explanation.

What you will see mostly in this ebook are screens of winning trades and a very small amount of actual strategy.

Sports Trader Review – Racing Trader Review

If I hadn’t been actively learning to trade the horse racing markets this last year then maybe I would have a slightly different opinion on this book.

If I hadn’t come across Caan Berry or Itsamugsblogs horse racing content maybe this book would have came across a little better.

So the Racing Trader costs £60 and focuses on the horse racing markets. If you buy this ebook you get to see lots of winning trades and read how Tony Hargreaves made 61 winning trades in a row!

The same issues apply to the racing trader that were present in the sports trader strategy guide there is no real depth to the strategies discussed.

It all just seems as a way for the “The Blagger” sorry the “The Badger” to show how awesome he is at trading.

There is a lot of fundamental information regarding horse racing that is missing from this book.

I feel that if you were to trade the horse racing markets based on the information in this book you would lose money and the book would not give you the answers why.

This book simplifies the horse racing markets and focuses more on how much money you can make rather then going deep into the process of making consistently good trades.

So then do I think that Tony Hargreaves is full of crap and a snake oil salesman?

I think its a possibility or maybe he is just very bad at writing down the process of how he trades so profitably.

Conclusion

My main issue with these expensive ebooks is that they are sold on the premise that you are getting expert advice from a professional trader.

The information and content in these books though is very basic and doesn’t provide the depth of information you expect from a “professional trader.”

I would recommend you don’t buy anything that Tony Hargreaves is selling there is free information that is much better then what he offers in either of these ebooks.

Its get 0.5 star rating for me, the price tags are ridiculous for me and the books offer very little value.

I wrote a follow up to this review here due to some discussion this review caused.

Here are my recommendations for free material that in my opinion offer a lot more value then the “The Badgers” products.

Peter Webb’s Youtube Channel

Caan Berry Website

Itsamugsblogs

Lay The Draw Tips 2024

Lay The Draw Tips

Lay the draw seems to be the first trading strategy that people learn when they get into Betfair Trading. It is a strategy that has been around since the birth of Betfair and still holds a lot of appeal even in 2024.

So what is the lay the draw strategy?

The strategy involves laying the draw at the start of the game then waiting for a goal to be scored and backing the draw at higher odds for a profit.

Lay the draw tips — Laying the draw pre match

As time has gone on this strategy has become less popular and less profitable as the Betfair markets have matured. The odds on the draw don’t move as much as they did 6-7 years ago.

So the big question is?

Is lay the draw still profitable?

Yes lay the draw is still a profitable trading and betting strategy even in 2024.

Watch this video on YouTube

There are multiple people using lay the draw to still profit from the markets.

It is a strategy that you can take multiple approaches with.

A favorite approach of mine when it comes to laying the draw is entering in second half. By laying the draw in the second half we get lower odds and a higher profit margin from one goal is scored. Obviously this means that you have to find a game that meets the conditions but it is a good low risk higher reward approach for laying the draw.

Lay The Draw Tips

These are the conditions that are favourable when you are looking to lay the draw in football.

Trading Football — PSG needed goals against Man City

Favourite needs the win

The favourite to be really pushing for the goal and leaving space to be countered.
A team that is chasing the title, European qualification, needs a goal to progress in the cup. You want pressure on that to team to score in front of home crowd.

Underdog can counter

You don’t want to lay the draw if the underdog is just sitting back and holding out for a draw. I would back the favourite instead if it was one way traffic.
The underdog should look like they can score, have a pacy forward running after long balls or wingers that break on the counter.

Form and stats

Teams that have a tendency to score at home.
Teams that score/concede more goals in the second half

Resources For Lay The Draw

There are some very good resources if you are looking to find historical data on teams for a pre match lay the draw strategy. Also you can look at optimal goal times scored if you are looking to employ an in-play lay the draw approach.

Below we have listed some of our favourite resources.

www.soccerstats.com

www.whoscored.com

Sports Betting Bankroll Management

What is a sports betting bankroll?

In the simplest terms a sports betting bankroll is an amount of money that we set aside for sports betting. We don’t use it to pay the rent or bills it is a completely separate investment that is solely used for sports betting.

As somebody that has been betting on sports and trading sports for a living the past two years I can say one of the biggest factors in being successful in both is treating them as a business and having proper bankroll management. Lets look at the difference between good and bad bankroll management.

First lets look at bad bankroll management.

What is a sports betting bankroll Bobby — Bobby the bad sports bettor

This is Bobby the bad sports bettor. Bobby has a spare £100 every week after he has bought food, paid the bills etc. Bobby isn’t bad at finding value bets however he no idea of good bankroll management.

Bobby likes to make two bets a week for £50 each, if they win next week he splits his winnings into two bets again and bets for example £100 on each game. Bobby does this until he either reaches a total of £1000 and withdraws or loses his money and starts again.

He does not think long term or record his bets but for every time Bobby reaches £1000 he loses £3700 trying to get there. Bobby is a losing sports bettor.

Sports Betting Bankroll Management

Lets look at good bankroll management. Bobby learns good bankroll management and decides to put aside some of his wage that he has for recreational use.

Bobby has a bankroll of £1000 and uses bets between 2% to 5% of bankroll depending on the odds. When Bobby bets on odds between 1.5-2.0 he uses 2-3% bets, odds below 1.5 he uses 3-5% of his bankroll and bets above 2.0 he uses 1-2%.

This is very solid bankroll management and allows a very steady progression in his bankroll. Bobby records his bets and sees over a year that for every £1000 he bets he is making a profit of £55. Bobby bets £10,000 that year and makes £550 in profit for a 5.5% return on his investment.

Bobby has become a winning sports bettor as he has learnt proper bankroll management.

Mastering Tennis Trading Review

Mastering Tennis Trading Review

Final Verdict

<br />

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Treat Your Sports Trading Like A Business

Record Keeping

Recommendations

Look at the small margins

Invest in your sports trading business

Structure

Sports Arbitrage For A Living

An Interview with a full time arber

Full Time Arbitrage

Swing Trading Football Strategies

Short Term Scalping

Key things to consider

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy

Suggested Reading

Choose Your Trading Mentors Carefully

Sports Trader Review – Strategy Guide

Conclusion

Sports Trader Review – Racing Trader Review

Conclusion

Lay The Draw Tips

Is lay the draw still profitable?

Lay The Draw Tips

What is a sports betting bankroll?

Sports Betting Bankroll Management

Useful resources and links

Profitable betting strategy