Lay The Draw Tips
I got an email recently asking me about whether or not I use the lay the draw strategy in football.
Lay the draw seems to be the first trading strategy that people learn when they get into Betfair Trading. The strategy involves laying the draw at the start of the game then waiting for a goal to be scored and backing the draw at higher odds for a profit.
As time has gone on this strategy has become less popular and less profitable as the Betfair markets have matured. The odds on the draw don’t move as much as they did 6-7 years ago.
So is lay the draw still profitable?
I have written how I trade the first half of a football game but I do also have some strategies for the second half.
Lay the draw is one of those strategies that I use occasionally in the second half if the odds aren’t too high and a few other conditions are met.
By laying the draw in the second half we get lower odds and a higher profit margin from one goal so it makes more sense to use this strategy in the second half.
Lay The Draw Tips
These are the conditions that I look for for when looking to lay the draw when football trading.
Favourite needs the win
- I want the favourite to be really pushing for the goal and leaving space to be countered.
- A team that is chasing the title, european qualification, needs a goal to progress in the cup. I want pressure on that to team to score in front of home crowd.
Underdog can counter
- I don’t want to lay the draw if the underdog is just sitting back and holding out for a draw. I would back the favourite instead if it was one way traffic.
- The underdog should look like they can score, have a pacy forward running after long balls or wingers that break on the counter.
Form and stats
- You want teams that have a tendency to score at home.
Ryan is a former mixed martial arts and kickboxing competitor. After finishing university he played online poker and taught English for a living in Thailand for a few years.
Upon returning to England his focus has been on making a living from sports trading, betting and arbitrage. Over the course of 5 years he has managed to make a six figure profit using the strategies discussed on this site.
Ryan runs the sports betting and trading website www.smartsportstrader.com