Trading the first goalscorer what to look out for?
The first goalscorer market is one that is often overlooked by a lot of traders. It is not the most liquid of the football markets but there still often good trading opportunities to be found.
Lets take a look at two approaches you can use when tackling the first goalscorer markets.
First Goalscorer Trading Strategy – Market Maker
One approach you can use in the first goalscorer market is to offer multiple lay bets at prices below that of the bookmakers. For example lets take a look at tonight’s game Juventus vs Napoli.
This was at 09.00 this morning and the game was due to be played at 19.45.
There has been no money matched so far but as the time draws nearer to the game liquidity will increase. What you can see above however is that there is already multiple back bets available.
This means that someone or a few people have put lay bets in the market hoping to get matched.
Apart from Gonzalo Higuain all the above prices are below that of the rest of the betting market. This means that if anyone does back at these prices then the layer of these bets will be able to hedge his bet later for a guaranteed profit.
Lets take a look at how the bookies prices compare.
Arbing With Bookmakers
For example if someone matched your lay bet on Miralem Pjanic at 6.8 there are odds of 9.5 available to back at Bet365 and Betstars. This gives you an arbitrage situation.
You can either lock in your profit using bookmakers or wait till closer to kick off when the prices become more liquid and trade out.
This strategy relies on patience and hoping that a recreational bettor takes your bet or someone makes a mistake. You are more likely to get matched in one of the bigger games where there is more interest and money in the markets.
If you look at the above example I set myself up in two positions that I believe will be profitable.
Higuain is available at a best priced 4.25 with the bookmakers.
Big name goalscorers like Higuain tend to be priced much closer to the exchange price. I believe that my position at 4.8 is a value position and that I should be able to hedge it for lower closer to the game.
The second position I have put in is a lay bet on Pjanic at 7.4.
If this was to get matched I could back him at 9.5 on Bet365 or Betstars for an arbitrage bet or wait for the liquidity to arrvive and trade out at a higher price.
First Goalscorer Trading Strategy – Unexpected Starters
The second strategy that I want to outline is when the expected line up is something of a mystery. This usually happens in cup games and I will use the Sutton vs Arsenal FA cup game as an example.
Now in this game it was uncertain who would start as the main striker for Arsenal. When the team news was announced it was Theo Walcott who was pictured as a lone striker. This game was also being featured on the BBC which means there would be lots of liquidity and interest.
These are always good conditions for trading.
Given that Arsenal were priced at 1.13 and heavy favourites alongside the factors I mentioned above.
It was likely that there would be a lot of money being bet on Theo Walcott to score first. I backed the available money at 4.6 which was around £300 and then when the price shortened I layed it at 4.4.
Hedging the position for a profit across all outcomes for around £13 was an option but I choose to leave the majority of the profit on a Theo Walcott goal.
So there are a few pointers to look out for when trading the first goalscorer markets. There are often opportunities available in this market if you prepare a little and plan ahead.