Betting Articles Archives - Page 2 of 2

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Variance can be defined as the expectation of the squared deviation of a random variable from its mean, and it informally measures how far a set of (random) numbers are spread out from their mean.

If you struggled with that don’t worry your not alone. This definition doesn’t help those of us that are not very mathematically minded but there is a simpler way of looking at variance.

Variance is one of the key reasons why a lot of people struggle with sports trading and betting. It is something that I myself struggled with a lot when I first started sports trading and betting.

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Heads or Tails?

If we look at a coin flip there are two outcomes heads and tails. An equally weighted coin means that there is a 50% chance of it landing on either heads or tails. The nature of variance however means that if we flipped a coin a 100 times it may land on heads 63 times and tails 37 times or heads 44 times and tails 56 times.

The results of a 100 coin tosses would not be exactly 50/50 very often.

We know however that with a fair coin toss the odds are 50/50. With a greater volume of coin tosses the number of heads and tails recorded should move closer to evens.

Variance isn’t always negative and we sometimes do better then expected.

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Variance exists in sports trading and betting. There are several variables that we need to take into account when we looking at variance in our own betting and trading results.

We need to be aware of the odds that we betting/trading, the sample size of results that we have and what our expected edge is in the market we are trading or betting in.

It is important to develop a better understanding of variance as a sports bettor or trader. When we don’t understand something it often to leads to feelings of frustration and anger.

These feeling often have a negative effect on our sports trading. By breaking down and understanding the different aspects of sports trading we become better more profitable traders.

I am not an expert in probability and statistics it is something I am constantly learning about and trying to develop a greater understanding of. Luckily we live in an age were we can easily access articles and books published by experts in these fields.

Here is some recommended reading if you want to develop a better understanding of variance.

Over my years of betting and trading I have come into contact with a lot of different people that make money betting and trading.

One person that I have learnt quite a lot from is my friend Matt who has been doing sports arbitrage for a living now for the last five years.

Sports Arbitrage For A Living

An Interview with a full time arber

SST: First of all thanks for doing this interview Matt. My first question is how did you get started with sports arbitrage?

Matt: Well I had been messing around with betting for a few years pretty unsuccessfully. I came across the concept of sports arbitrage in 2008.

I started off very small and made maybe £30 in the first month but saw that it worked and gradually built it up.

SST: Were you doing matched betting to start with or straight arbitrage?

Matt: I started off with straight arbitrage between Pinnacle and Bwin and then started doing some matched betting or bonus scalping as people were calling it then.

SST: Has the landscape of sports arbitrage changed much since you first started?

Matt:Yes it is always changing. Bookmakers tolerated it more at first. I don’t think there were too many people doing.

The landscape is always changing with new laws and regulations coming in. I think that is why there is skill in becoming a good arbitrage bettor. You always have to adapt.

Full Time Arbitrage

SST: When and why did you decide to go full time with sports arbitrage betting?

Matt: In 2010 my total profits from arbitrage betting were more then my yearly wage. I had made around £40k which was more then my yearly salary.

I weighed up the risk and reward. I realised I could make more money from arbitrage. I didn’t have a great job so there was no issue leaving it.

SST: How have you managed to make a living from sports arbitrage the last five years when bookmakers limit accounts?

Matt: Its not been easy but I have learnt a few trends that bookmakers have. Some hate you taking arbs on horse racing but you can get away with other types of arbitrage for a long time.

Then you have exchanges, I live in the UK so there is also shop arbing. I have done a lot of the casino bonus stuff in the last few years also. There are lots of ways to make money from the bookies if you are creative.

I also have a deal with a few friends and family members where I act as an advisor of sorts and manage their accounts. I pay them 10% of the profits that I make each month and its a good deal for everyone.

SST: I understand. If someone wanted to get into sports arbitrage what would your advise be.

Matt: Everyone seems to be matched betting these days I would start with that.

Start small and don’t put all your money in one bookmaker. Use trusted bookmakers that have been around for a while. As there are quite a few shady ones that operate and will steal your money.

SST: Which bookmakers do you suggest using?

Matt: Use all the ones from oddschecker.com they are all pretty good. Avoid ones that just arrived on the scene as many don’t last such as Bet666.

Start off with the major bookmakers Bet365 and William Hill for example.

SST: Any other advice?

Matt: Don’t worry about account limitation people get hung up on this. You will get accounts limited but new reputable bookmakers start up and then a whole new money stream opens up again.

If you really work at it its a great way to earn a very nice second income. If you really make the most of it then it can become a full time occupation.

SST: Cheers Matt thanks for you time.

If you want to start profiting from sports betting, arbitrage and trading. I recommend this service which is currently contributing the biggest profit in my 50k in a year challenge.