Betfair Scam – “Wallet Management”

Unfortunately scam artists are in every type of industry.

In sports trading one type of scam that is used to lure in potential victims is called “wallet management.”

What is wallet management?

“Wallet management” is a concept that really makes no sense at all.

Lets take a look at my exchanges with a so called “professional trader” that offers “wallet management”.

Betfair Scam

Basically a “Professional Trader” will approach showing you lots of nice winning screenshots and green screens. They will tell you that they are a profitable trader and are willing to offer their services.

The scam artist will ask you to transfer money to their account or platform. The scammer will then claim to use the account to make money via trading. Promising you a high percentage of the profits for doing this.

Scam artists will target someone that is interested in sports trading. They do this via social media such platforms like Twitter and Facebook. Forums and email messages are also places where scam artists might try to contact someone.

Most people will realize that any professional trader that is consistently making money from the betting exchanges won’t need any type of investment. A profitable trader can reuse their own winnings and scale up their betting. By paying out a large commission on somebodies investment they are taking that money out of their own pocket.

There is no reason for any real trader to offer a service such as the one detailed above. If anyone does approach you offering this service then be aware that it is a scam.

If you want to start profiting from sports betting and trading. I recommend this service which is low risk and consistently makes money

Jonas Gjelstad – High Stakes Poker To High Stakes Sports Betting

Jonas Gjelstad – High Stakes Poker To High Stakes Sports Betting

Who Is Jonas Gjelstad?

Jonas Gjelstad is a high stakes poker player who turned his attention to sports betting. Originally from Norway Jonas started playing poker at a young age.

Starting at low stakes sit and go tournaments before transitioning to heads up games. Jonas Gjelstad eventually Specialised in the game of PLO and quickly made his way to some of the higher stakes games online.

At the age of 20 years old he was appointed as an instructor for well known poker training site CardRunners.

Finding Value In Sports Betting

In the last few years Jonas has turned his focus towards sports betting.

Value betting was the approach that Jonas used initially to become a profitable sports bettor. Jonas stated that he would manually compare the odds between the sharp Asian bookmakers and soft European ones.

When the soft bookmakers offered greater odds then the Asian markets they would often become value bets after market movement. Jonas would take these value bets whenever they appeared.

Automating the process of finding value bets was one of the next steps in Jonas’s sports betting journey.

Jonas Gjelstad and some of his colleagues created a value betting tool which was later released to the public as Edgebet (which then later became Trademate.)

Finding himself limited from the majority of the soft bookmakers Gjelstad turned his attention to beating the sharper Asian betting markets. Applying what he learnt from studying the markets whilst value betting Jonas developed a way to profit from the sharper bookmakers.

In a video series which profiles Jonas Gjelstad’s sports betting activities he states that he turned an initial bankroll of $10k into $1,000,000 over 12 months time.

Whilst little is known about the way Jonas approaches the betting markets and how has been so successful. The way he has quickly progressed in both the poker world and sports betting world are pretty unheard of.

It will be interesting to see what the future brings for Jonas Gjelstad.

One thing is for sure he is obviously somebody who has mastered the art of gambling.

Resources

Jonas Gjelstad profile – video series

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Paulo Rebelo – The Millionaire Football Trader

Who is Paulo Rebelo?

Paulo Rebelo is a football trader who is quite well known in his native country of Portugal.

In Portugal he has appeared on national television several times and runs the popular betting/trading website https://www.academiadasapostas.com/

Paulo Rebelo - The Millionaire Football Trader — Picture courtesy of www.paulorebelotrader.com/en

At the age of 17 Paulo Rebelo began studying the stock markets. Before going on to study at university.

Rebelo notes that he left university after the first semester as he was disappointed by what was taught. He began to study economics and began to develop and test theories on the stock exchange.

Failing to get a job in portfolio management due his age, lack of experience and no degree Rebelo returned to university.

The Betting Begins

When Paulo returned to college his interest in sports betting began. Consistent results and profits were made from “simple statistical analyzes” in Paulo’s own words.

Sports trading became a major focus of his.

After about a year of betting Paulo Rebelo found Betfair. He realised that he could apply everything he had learnt from studying the financial markets to the Betfair markets.

Rebelo eventually developed his own database and created a model which was able to identify profitable odds in the Betfair markets.

Live trading was Paulo’s next focus and he writes “after identifying, analyzing and correction of some mistakes done, I managed to step-by-step profit with live games. When I started winning consistently I dedicated myself exclusively to trading live.”

There is quite a lot of material from Paulo Rebelo available online. Although it is not perfectly translated into English there are still some useful bits of information and insights to be read.

You can learn more about Paulo Rebelo in the links below.

Resources

https://www.paulorebelotrader.com/en/paulo-rebelo-diary/

https://www.youtube.com/user/SirPauloR

https://www.onlinebettingacademy.com/

References

https://www.paulorebelotrader.com/en/about-me/

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

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Accumulator Betting Tips – Can accumulators be profitable?

Accumulator betting profits

Is there a way of making long term profits from accumulator betting?

Accumulator’s are a bookmaker’s best friend they love them.

In fact you very rarely see a bookmaker highlighting a winning punters success. If however that punter hit a 16 team accumulator for £150,000 you might here about it.

Those bettors that are able to find value week in week out against a bookmakers odds over the long term. Will likely find themselves limited to pennies or unable to bet.

Accumulator betting profits — My weekend accumulator

Why then do bookmakers love accumulators?

Bookmakers love accumulators generally because it compounds their margins.

A bookmaker margin is basically the percentage of profit a bookmaker would make if the amount of money bet on all outcomes of a game were equally balanced.

For example if a bookmaker has a 5% margin on a game this would mean they would expect to make £5 for every £100 staked on the game. In a way this is similar to arbitrage betting if a bookmaker has a perfectly balanced book then they are guaranteed a profit no matter the outcome.

So bookmakers in general love accumulator bets because its compounds that margin for them with each selection. A 5% margin on a single bet becomes much more with each selection that you add.

Making a profit from accumulator betting

It is possible to make a profit from accumulator bets and like all methods of betting its about finding value.

I have written about using Asian bookmaker to find value bets with softbooks before. We can use this same approach when making an accumulator have a positive expectation.

For this approach we need to find two or more value bets with the same bookmaker. Then put them in an accumulator.

You can see from the above that Marathonbet have Osasuna at 7.10 whilst Pinnacle have them at odds of 6.61. The no vig odds are 6.74 which indicates Osasuna are a value bet.

Betting in this way is still going to be very volatile but if you are going to place accumulators bets you may as well look for value whilst doing it.

Accumulator betting profits

Using bookmaker promotion’s against them

The best way to make money from accumulator betting is by using bookmaker promotions against them. Oddsmonkey is an excellent matched betting service and has something called the “Acca Matcher” which was created just for this.

Accumulators are such a big money earner for soft bookmakers they want to entice people to bet on them. A popular promotion is “back 5 selections get a free bet if one loses.”

This offered by William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes alongside several other soft bookmakers.

Accumulator betting tips — Oddsmonkey’s Acca Matcher find the best value accumulators available

Selections from the bookmaker are found by Oddsmonkey which are close in price to the Betfair lay odds. This means generally they are close to the true odds.

The Oddsmonkey “Acca Matcher” then uses the Betfair odds alongside the bookmakers money back promotion to show you the expected long term value of placing that bet. There is also the option to lay these selections on the betting exchanges to guarantee small profits.

This process can also be done manually by searching for odds close to the Betfair lay price yourself. Oddsmonkey just enables you to do it quicker and works out the calculations for you.

Bookmaker’s accumulator promotions are a great way of creating accumulator bets with a positive expectation.

I hope this article has given you a few ideas on how to make money from accumulator betting. When used correctly it can be a good way of keeping under a bookmakers radar whilst still extracting some value.

Dobbing – Betfair Trading Strategy

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy

What is Dobbing?

Dobbing stands for “double or bust” it is a Betfair trading strategy used on the horse racing markets.

The Dobbing Betfair strategy involves backing a horse pre race and having a lay bet matched in-play at half the odds of the initial stake.

The aim of a Dob (double or bust) bet is to make a profit that is even to your stake essentially doubling it.

Lets take a look at an example of a potential Dob bet.

In the above image you can see that I have put in a potential back bet of £100 on Bonnie Gals at odds of 5.00.

I have also placed a potential lay bet of £200 at odds of 2.5. If both of these bets were matched you can see that this would equal a profit of £95.00 (£100 – 5% commission) across all outcomes.

If the lay bet is not matched in-play then you would lose your stake, this is where the bust part of the name Dob (double or bust) comes from.

Dobbing essentially works like a straight betting method where you are getting odds of 1.95 ( After 5% commission) on every bet.

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy

How to find a good Dobbing Horse?

The double or bust strategy is one that is quite popular so there are a number of good resources available online.

Patternform for example has an excellent page showing you the historical percentages for horses that have dobbed in the past.

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy — An example of the Patternform Dobbing overview.

This is a good starting point when looking for a horse that will potentially Dob in-play.

There are several factors to take into account when choosing horses that will be a successful Dob trade.

For example you might look at filtering horses that have historically dobbed 75% of the time, look at whether they favour specific courses, Are they likely to lead the race? Weather conditions? Do specific odds ranges work better?

The pace card is another excellent resource from Patternform which gives you an indication of likely front runners in a race.

There are a few different variants of this method with some people opting to try to take more then 100% profit on there stake and others taking less. The most common method however seems to be for people to aim for basically an even money bet minus the commission.

Dobbing can be a profitable angle to consider when looking at trading the horse racing markets and might be something to consider having in your trading arsenal.

Mastering Tennis Trading Review – An Expert’s Insight

Mastering Tennis Trading is a book written by respected professional tennis trader Dan Weston.

Dan Weston has written articles for Pinnacle and Matchbook. He also runs the site https://www.tennisratings.co.uk/ which has lots of good articles on tennis trading and betting.

Mastering Tennis Trading Review

The book mastering tennis trading is as the name implies all about trading the tennis markets on betting exchanges.

I don’t trade tennis myself but I always love to read how professional traders approach trading the betting exchanges. This book does a great job of that and has really given me the motivation to take a much deeper look at trading tennis in 2017.

Mastering Tennis Trading is a total of 117 pages long. It starts with a basic introduction to tennis trading and how to setup yourself up when you are trading. General aspects of the betting exchanges are also explained such as price increments, laying, liquidity etc.

After the general introduction different trading strategies and situations are discussed in detail. One recurring theme that I really liked about this book is the use of data to explain why a trade had or might have a positive expectation.

Mastering Tennis Trading covers quite a large number of trading situations with the main topics including

Pre-match trading
Projected service holds
Pre-match lay to back in-play
Backing favourites when losing
Laying bad servers
Pressure situations
Backing the server
Tiebreak trading
In-game trades
At the end of the first set
The deciding set
Dangerous situations
Psychology risk and bankroll management

So you can see from the above that this book is very thorough and covers pretty much all aspects of trading tennis.

Mastering Tennis Trading Review

Final Verdict

I really enjoyed reading this book and felt that I was getting expert advice from somebody that is trading the tennis markets profitably for a living. Mastering Tennis Trading does an excellent job of explaining the basics of trading tennis and then progresses to show well explained examples of how you can find profitable angles within the tennis markets.

This book gets a clear recommendation from me. It is well written, easy to follow and would add a huge amount of value to anyone that was looking to trade tennis on the exchanges.

It gets a five star rating from me.

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(This article features affiliate links. This means that if you choose to make a purchase, I will earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you. I use or have used any product I review. If I recommend them it is because I believe they are helpful, useful and offer value to their customers. Please do not spend any money on these products unless you feel they will give you value or that they will help you achieve your goals.)

Betfair Scalping – Football Trading Strategies

In this article I am going to write about finding the best opportunities for scalping the football markets.

Swing Trading Football Strategies

Big name player gets injured

One of the most profitable strategies for scalping the football markets is to take advantage of injuries that occur in play. I will use an example from the Euro 2016 final.

During the first half of the Euro 2016 final Portugal’s star player Cristiano Ronaldo went down injured and looked like he could not continue.

In a matter of minutes Portugals price flew out from 4.5 to around 5.2. This enabled traders who reacted quickly to make around 13% profit on their stake.

This example is a more of a swing trade and it doesn’t happen that often. If you aware and act quick enough though there is good profit to made from little risk.

(In the 2018 Champions League final this also happened when Mo Salah got injured for Liverpool.)

Short Term Scalping

Killing Time

One of my favourite times to scalp a market is when one team is deliberately killing time and faking injuries.

Italian games are good for scalping opportunities

This a common scenario when an underdog is leading a game and time is ticking down during the second half. The key to being profitable in this scenario is having quick enough pictures and recognizing which teams have a tendency to stall the play.

In this scenario you have the option of laying the losing favourite or laying the overs market. You should be able to gain a few ticks each time doing this again with very low risk.

There are other opportunities for scalping the football markets on Betfair but these are two with the lowest risk.

Key things to consider

Here are a few key things to consider when you are scalping the football markets on Betfair.

How fast are your pictures?

– You really need the fastest pictures available, if you are streaming with a 20 second delay then you are going to be behind the majority of the market.

How liquid is the market you are trading?

-If you are trading a Champions League game you should have no problem getting in and out of the market.

-If you are trading a low level FA Cup game on a wet Wednesday night the opportunity to scalp properly is probably not going to be there.

What is you risk vs reward ratio?

-What is your profit percentage each time you enter a scalp trade?

-How much of your bank are you willing to lose should something go against you?

When used in the right situations scalping can be a good way of building some very low risks profits during a game of football.

I hope these Betfair scalping football trading strategies have given you a few more options to think about.

(In order to scalp successfully on Betfair you will need to use some software that allows quick entries and exits into the markets. I currently use Geeks toy having found this to be the quickest and one of the most efficient pieces of software available.)