How to become a millionaire sports trader and bettor!

If you came to this article for a strategy that is going to make you unlimited amounts of money from Betfair. I’m sorry but you might be disappointed.

What I wanted to do in this article is address two things.

Show how easy it is to look like your staking huge amount of money on your bets/trades.
Write about why learning about the process of a good trade is more important then seeing winning screen shots.

How to become a millionaire sports trader and bettor!

In the above image there is a trade I made this morning just as an example for this article. I backed a horse called Kastani Beach at odds of 6.8 for a £5 stake. You can see that I stand to win £27.58 should the horse win and lose £5.00 if it doesn’t.

Now look what happens if I make some manual adjustments.

Now suddenly I am risking £5 to win £2700.58. If you look at the image however not much else has changed.

Only one bet has been matched the back bet at 6.8. My lay bet at 6.6 hasn’t been matched either so why has my profit margin increased so much?

How to fake a trade or betslip

The process only takes a few seconds. It is very easy to appear that you staking or winning much more then you are in reality.

1.You highlight your potential winnings.

2. Right click and select inspect.

3. Find and highlight your stake amount .

4. Change it to whatever amount you want.

That’s how easy it is to look like you are a hugely successful trader or sports bettor. You can do this on any sports book and other exchanges. Its why big green screens are not very useful unless there is some context behind them.

Why do people do this?

It attracts attention and builds social media presence. It generates more traffic.

Look at the popularity of a guy like Dan Bilzerian for example.

I have tested this myself. If I post up an article on social media with a winning trade or some profitable results attached. It will generally generate much more traffic then if I used a generic image of a football match for example.

When people see winning trades they can envision themselves doing the same thing. You see some of these fake twitter tipsters with 100k followings that offer nothing of value at all. They don’t educate their followers or provide actual profitable bets. But they post up huge betslips, funny memes and have a £10-£10,000 challenge.

If you are looking to get an insight into being a better sports trader/bettor. Follow people that actually provide an insight into the process of making good trades or bets. Ignore the big greens and winning betslips unless there is a useful explanation behind them.

Whilst I was writing my trade got matched.

Made my profit target for the day, I’m off to Monte Carlo for the afternoon on my private jet.

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

Check out our recommendations below.

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Trading Strategy

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy

Goals are the most exciting aspect of a football match.

They cause the biggest odds movement and there are numerous strategies based around goals.

Laying the correct score in the second half is the strategy I am going to write about in this article.

When is the best time to lay the correct score?

Generally I like to the lay the score in the second half of the game in the final 30 minutes.

There are a few factors that I look for in a good lay the second half score trade.

Laying The Correct Score Tips - Betfair Strategy — Cup games are good for this strategy.

Urgency – There needs to a reason why a teams need to score and preferably as quick as possible.

One goal difference – I like there to be a one goal difference between the teams. Psychologically this can make a big difference to the way players react. One goal is always very attainable whether there are 20 minutes or 2 minutes remaining.

Home team losing/Cup game – These situations can create an urgency within a team to score. A rabid home crowd spur their team to push forward and can give a side that extra energy. It can also leave them open to the counter and exposed at the back as the pressure from fans builds.

Teams that generally score/Opposition stats – This is probably obvious but you want to look at teams that have a good goal scoring record at home. Also consider on average how many goals there opponents concede away from home.

Game Tempo – Being able to watch a game is an advantage as game tempo can be key.

Is the leading team looking to counter?
Are they wasting time using stalling tactics?
Is the referee stopping the game at every opportunity?
Are the crowd behind the home team? Changes in tactics/substitutions?

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy

Example

Last night there was a game between Liverpool and Southampton in the league cup semi final. Liverpool were the home side and found themselves down 0-1 on aggregate. It got to the 60 minute mark and the score was level at 0-0 with Liverpool needing a goal to have any hope of qualification.

Given the conditions of the game meeting the factors above and Liverpool’s tendency to score at home I entered a lay bet on 0-0 at 3.35.

It should also be noted that Southampton were missing there best defender Virgil Van Dijk and this season had conceded twice as many goals in the second half compared to the first. These were other factors that I felt increased the likely hood of a goal being scored.

Liverpool pushed hard for the goal but ultimately it was Southampton who scored in injury time on the counter. The lay bet was successful £28.53 was made after commission for a stake of £70.50.

I prefer to trade the match odds markets pre match and in the first half. The strategy above however is a good one to consider in the second half if the right conditions are met.

This strategy is basically an outright bet on a goal being scored. Like all betting strategies you need to consider correct bankroll management and game selection to be successful in the long term.

Hopefully this article on laying the correct score will have given you a strategy to consider when trading the second half of a football game.

Resources

https://www.soccerstats.com/

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

Check out our recommendations below.

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Variance can be defined as the expectation of the squared deviation of a random variable from its mean, and it informally measures how far a set of (random) numbers are spread out from their mean.

If you struggled with that don’t worry your not alone. This definition doesn’t help those of us that are not very mathematically minded but there is a simpler way of looking at variance.

Variance is one of the key reasons why a lot of people struggle with sports trading and betting. It is something that I myself struggled with a lot when I first started sports trading and betting.

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting — Heads or Tails?

If we look at a coin flip there are two outcomes heads and tails. An equally weighted coin means that there is a 50% chance of it landing on either heads or tails. The nature of variance however means that if we flipped a coin a 100 times it may land on heads 63 times and tails 37 times or heads 44 times and tails 56 times.

The results of a 100 coin tosses would not be exactly 50/50 very often.

We know however that with a fair coin toss the odds are 50/50. With a greater volume of coin tosses the number of heads and tails recorded should move closer to evens.

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Variance exists in sports trading and betting. There are several variables that we need to take into account when we looking at variance in our own betting and trading results.

We need to be aware of the odds that we betting/trading, the sample size of results that we have and what our expected edge is in the market we are trading or betting in.

It is important to develop a better understanding of variance as a sports bettor or trader. When we don’t understand something it often to leads to feelings of frustration and anger.

These feeling often have a negative effect on our sports trading. By breaking down and understanding the different aspects of sports trading we become better more profitable traders.

I am not an expert in probability and statistics it is something I am constantly learning about and trying to develop a greater understanding of. Luckily we live in an age were we can easily access articles and books published by experts in these fields.

Here is some recommended reading if you want to develop a better understanding of variance.

Its all about variance

Luck vs skill in sports betting

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy – Small Risk For A Large Payoff

In this article I am going to detail a horse racing arbitrage strategy that I like to use occasionally to mix up my betting patterns.

This strategy is profitable and is a good way of taking extra value from the bookies.

If you are unfamiliar with arbitrage and want to learn about arbitrage betting. I recommend reading this excellent resource on arbitrage betting.

This strategy as it is a good way of moving money from bookmakers to exchanges but also getting some value in the process.

First off you are going to need a low commission betting exchange such as Smarkets or Matchbook and bookmakers that offer best odds guaranteed.

To find bookmakers that offer best odds guaranteed use oddschecker and look for a green tick box along the line noted at “best odds guaranteed.”

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy

First off we look for a horse that is a close back and lay price at a BOG(Best Odds Guaranteed) bookmaker (back) and low commission exchange (lay).

For this example I will use Smarkets.

In the picture above you will see the horse Copper Baked is priced at 1.91 with a number BOG bookmakers.

We can offer a lay price that matches the current BOG bookmaker prices. When the lay bet gets matched we then place the back bet at a BOG bookmaker.

From the above you can see that if the odds on Copper Baked stays the same price or comes in further we stand to win £90.90 for Bet365 and lose £90.01 from Smarkets for a £0.89p profit.

If Copper Baked loses we win £100 minus the 2% commission from Smarkets £98 and lose the £100 from Bet365.

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy

The key to this method is the large potential upside from the BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) promotion. The Best Odds Guarantee promotion means that if a horses starting price drifts after you backed it you will get paid at the higher starting price.

So if Copper Baked price drifts before the off. With the starting price going off at a price higher then 1.9 then Bet365 would pay out at its starting price under the BOG promotion.

For example if Copper Baked drifted to 2.5 before the off and won we would then be paid £150 by Bet365 and lose only £90 from Smarkets. This would equal a profit of £60 when our risk of loss was only ever £2.

In this example we get a horse rated at 2.5 for odds of 31.0. This does happen fairly regularly in the horse racing markets.

From using this method there is always a much larger upside then there is downside.

Also by sticking to shorter favourites. It doesn’t look like conventional arbitrage to the bookmakers.

This method is a great way of building your trading bank alongside matched betting and arbitrage.

In order to make the most of this horse racing arbitrage strategy you will need an exchange that offers lower commission then Betfair.

Although this strategy is still profitable with Betfair it is much more profitable if you can access the 0% commission deals available with some bookmakers.

In the long term paying 2% less commission is going to going to add to much greater profits.

You can get 0% commission on both Smarkets and Matchbook by joining Oddsmonkey They offer a number of horse racing markets with ever increasing liquidity.

Alongside a host of other valuable tools that will allow you to make money from the sports betting markets.