Smart Sports Trader, Author at Smart Sports Trader

Lay The Draw Tips 2024

Lay The Draw Tips

Lay the draw seems to be the first trading strategy that people learn when they get into Betfair Trading. It is a strategy that has been around since the birth of Betfair and still holds a lot of appeal even in 2024.

So what is the lay the draw strategy?

The strategy involves laying the draw at the start of the game then waiting for a goal to be scored and backing the draw at higher odds for a profit.

Lay the draw tips — Laying the draw pre match

As time has gone on this strategy has become less popular and less profitable as the Betfair markets have matured. The odds on the draw don’t move as much as they did 6-7 years ago.

So the big question is?

Is lay the draw still profitable?

Yes lay the draw is still a profitable trading and betting strategy even in 2024.

Watch this video on YouTube

There are multiple people using lay the draw to still profit from the markets.

It is a strategy that you can take multiple approaches with.

A favorite approach of mine when it comes to laying the draw is entering in second half. By laying the draw in the second half we get lower odds and a higher profit margin from one goal is scored. Obviously this means that you have to find a game that meets the conditions but it is a good low risk higher reward approach for laying the draw.

Lay The Draw Tips

These are the conditions that are favourable when you are looking to lay the draw in football.

Trading Football — PSG needed goals against Man City

Favourite needs the win

The favourite to be really pushing for the goal and leaving space to be countered.
A team that is chasing the title, European qualification, needs a goal to progress in the cup. You want pressure on that to team to score in front of home crowd.

Underdog can counter

You don’t want to lay the draw if the underdog is just sitting back and holding out for a draw. I would back the favourite instead if it was one way traffic.
The underdog should look like they can score, have a pacy forward running after long balls or wingers that break on the counter.

Form and stats

Teams that have a tendency to score at home.
Teams that score/concede more goals in the second half

Resources For Lay The Draw

There are some very good resources if you are looking to find historical data on teams for a pre match lay the draw strategy. Also you can look at optimal goal times scored if you are looking to employ an in-play lay the draw approach.

Below we have listed some of our favourite resources.

www.soccerstats.com

www.whoscored.com

Sports Betting Bankroll Management

What is a sports betting bankroll?

In the simplest terms a sports betting bankroll is an amount of money that we set aside for sports betting. We don’t use it to pay the rent or bills it is a completely separate investment that is solely used for sports betting.

As somebody that has been betting on sports and trading sports for a living the past two years I can say one of the biggest factors in being successful in both is treating them as a business and having proper bankroll management. Lets look at the difference between good and bad bankroll management.

First lets look at bad bankroll management.

What is a sports betting bankroll Bobby — Bobby the bad sports bettor

This is Bobby the bad sports bettor. Bobby has a spare £100 every week after he has bought food, paid the bills etc. Bobby isn’t bad at finding value bets however he no idea of good bankroll management.

Bobby likes to make two bets a week for £50 each, if they win next week he splits his winnings into two bets again and bets for example £100 on each game. Bobby does this until he either reaches a total of £1000 and withdraws or loses his money and starts again.

He does not think long term or record his bets but for every time Bobby reaches £1000 he loses £3700 trying to get there. Bobby is a losing sports bettor.

Sports Betting Bankroll Management

Lets look at good bankroll management. Bobby learns good bankroll management and decides to put aside some of his wage that he has for recreational use.

Bobby has a bankroll of £1000 and uses bets between 2% to 5% of bankroll depending on the odds. When Bobby bets on odds between 1.5-2.0 he uses 2-3% bets, odds below 1.5 he uses 3-5% of his bankroll and bets above 2.0 he uses 1-2%.

This is very solid bankroll management and allows a very steady progression in his bankroll. Bobby records his bets and sees over a year that for every £1000 he bets he is making a profit of £55. Bobby bets £10,000 that year and makes £550 in profit for a 5.5% return on his investment.

Bobby has become a winning sports bettor as he has learnt proper bankroll management.

I hope this answers the question what is a sports betting bankroll?

Whilst also giving some pointers on good and bad bankroll management.

Useful resources and links

Profitable betting strategy

Using the Kelly criterion for betting

Profitable betting strategy – Don’t discount short odds

All bettors hope to stumble upon a profitable betting strategy and sometimes they can be fairly simple.

So I have admitted to being somewhat of a gambling geek I have spent lots of time reading forums, blogs, books and whatever I can get my hands on that is betting/trading related.

I am always looking for a profitable betting strategy. One theory that I found interesting is the favourite-longshot bias in betting.

Here is some reading material for some of you that this might interest.

https://www.gamblingonlinemagazine.com/gambling-features.php?articleID=35

https://www.football-data.co.uk/blog/favourite_longshot_bias_football.php

https://www.progambler.co.uk/favourite-longshot-bias-in-fixed-odds-football-markets/

In a nutshell if you don’t want to read through those articles it shows that by blindly betting on every favourite you would lose a lot less then if you blindly bet on every underdog.

Bookmakers exploited the fact that a punter was more likely to back at higher odds. Given the chance to risk say £10 to win £90 then they would be to risk £10 to win £2.50. This lead to longer odds being much poorer value and further away from the real implied odds.

It indicates that is easier to find value in favourites then it is to do so in underdogs. A lot of the research I have read was from many years ago so I wanted to see if this trend is still prevalent in today’s markets.

Profitable betting strategy

Looking at Pyckio a tipster site that has ranked thousands of tipsters we can see that the number one tipster bets at average odds of 1.28 (at the time of writing) going by the name of PistolPete with 6.1% yield over 568 bets.

He has achieved this by betting exclusively on low odds in Tennis. This is one indicator that the favourite-longshot bias is still prevalent at least in Tennis.

Profitable betting strategy — Betting short odds on tennis has shown to be profitable.

My second indicator was a service called Banker Bets which also focuses its betting on short odds over varying sports.

Over two years the service has banked an increase of 192.90% to the average available odds (meaning this could have been bettered by selecting the best odds available at the time.)

Spurred on by the success of the two above tipsters I then looked at how I could emulate their success and improve upon it. Another profitable betting strategy or theory known as value betting or chasing steam exists.

It basically states that by bettering the odds available at the sharpest bookmakers Pinnacle, SBObet etc in efficient markets such as the Premier League you will have a value bet. A value bet is a bet that has a greater chance of winning then the odds imply.

This wasn’t too difficult to do especially at the lower odds. Bookmakers such Ladbrokes, Betvictor and William Hill often had better odds then the sharper bookmakers. The exchange Smarkets with its 2% commission alongside another low commission exchange Matchbook also often provided greater odds then the sharpest bookmakers could offer on several occasions.

Using these two theories alongside some filters such as no injuries to key players, no heavy weather conditions, no major changes to a side I have small yet profitable sample size of bets to suggest this is worth continuing with.

From October 2015 to February the 14th I looked at home teams between the odds of 1.2-1.6. I only bet on teams that I was familiar with and had easy access to likely team formations, general team news etc.

The teams I chose were

Man City
Arsenal
Man Utd
Chelsea
Tottenham
PSG
Juventus
Atletico Madrid

After 53 bets at a level stake of £100 per bet the profit and loss was £618 with an ROI of 11.6%. The only overall losing teams over this period were Chelsea with a loss of -166 from £700 staked and Man Utd with a loss of -29 from £600 staked.

This is a small sample size however it is encouraging and with in play betting and trading an option there are ways which may improve this method.

For example teams such as Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Real Madrid that often start home games as 1.1 or below. In cases such as these we could explore the half time market or over 1.5 goals market in play.

There are many angles to take with this type of betting/trading.

I hope that this article has given you some insight into the profits that can be obtained from short odds. It could be a betting angle that is worth looking into.

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

Check out our recommendations below.

How to trade the horses pre race as a beginner

Last week I reviewed Caan Berrys pre race trading guide and gave it a recommendation.

In the past week the football schedule was pretty lacklustre and I decided to delve into the horse markets.

I don’t like horse racing to be honest I find it very boring however as a trader I can see that it is probably the market with the most opportunities for trading.

Now I have tried to trade these markets two or three times before but it had always followed a similar pattern.

Win a little lose a lot more then I’d won and say to myself “f*** these stupid markets its impossible to trade them.”

This week I approached the markets with a different mindset and some help from Caan Berrys pre race trading guide and things started to click. I was making money cutting my losses earlier and starting to read the movements in the markets much more clearly.

Pre race trading horses — and stayed consistent

Top 5 tips for new traders approaching the horse racing markets

1. Don’t go in to a market expecting to make money

If you go in with this mindset it will be hard to accept a red should you need to, often this will lead to a bigger red.

Go in with the mindset that you will look for the best opportunities and take advantage of them if you see them. If you can’t see them that’s fine there are plenty more races to come.

2. Make notes and review your performance

Don’t rush from market to market take a step back and note down what you learnt from the last race market.

When did the big money come in? what happened to the favourite that had steamed in under 2.0 with 5 minutes still left? Was the market steady or volatile? ask yourself a few questions and write down the answers is there a pattern?

3. Remember to breathe

The horse racing markets move quick and you can get flustered, pissed off or bewildered. Its important to clear your head from time to time. Before a race or even mid race if I am struggling I will take a few deep breathes to regain my focus and slow things down.

Honestly in all of my trading/betting activities this has helped me the most. Removing the fog and retaining clear thinking throughout the day has been a huge factor in becoming a profitable trader.

4. Start Small

Sounds obvious but at this stage of your development as a trader you want to remove the stress and allow yourself to learn from the markets. It is a lot easier to keep this mindset when the losses are in pence rather then pounds.

5. Patience

Give yourself time don’t expect too much to soon. You might not see results straight away but don’t give up it is often just a case of persistently gaining experience combined with persistent analysis that leads to becoming a profitable trader.

Serious about trading the horses? This guide is one the best investments you could make.