Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Trading Strategy

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy

Goals are the most exciting aspect of a football match.

They cause the biggest odds movement and there are numerous strategies based around goals.

Laying the correct score in the second half is the strategy I am going to write about in this article.

When is the best time to lay the correct score?

Generally I like to the lay the score in the second half of the game in the final 30 minutes.

There are a few factors that I look for in a good lay the second half score trade.

Laying The Correct Score Tips - Betfair Strategy — Cup games are good for this strategy.

Urgency – There needs to a reason why a teams need to score and preferably as quick as possible.

One goal difference – I like there to be a one goal difference between the teams. Psychologically this can make a big difference to the way players react. One goal is always very attainable whether there are 20 minutes or 2 minutes remaining.

Home team losing/Cup game – These situations can create an urgency within a team to score. A rabid home crowd spur their team to push forward and can give a side that extra energy. It can also leave them open to the counter and exposed at the back as the pressure from fans builds.

Teams that generally score/Opposition stats – This is probably obvious but you want to look at teams that have a good goal scoring record at home. Also consider on average how many goals there opponents concede away from home.

Game Tempo – Being able to watch a game is an advantage as game tempo can be key.

Is the leading team looking to counter?
Are they wasting time using stalling tactics?
Is the referee stopping the game at every opportunity?
Are the crowd behind the home team? Changes in tactics/substitutions?

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy

Example

Last night there was a game between Liverpool and Southampton in the league cup semi final. Liverpool were the home side and found themselves down 0-1 on aggregate. It got to the 60 minute mark and the score was level at 0-0 with Liverpool needing a goal to have any hope of qualification.

Given the conditions of the game meeting the factors above and Liverpool’s tendency to score at home I entered a lay bet on 0-0 at 3.35.

It should also be noted that Southampton were missing there best defender Virgil Van Dijk and this season had conceded twice as many goals in the second half compared to the first. These were other factors that I felt increased the likely hood of a goal being scored.

Liverpool pushed hard for the goal but ultimately it was Southampton who scored in injury time on the counter. The lay bet was successful £28.53 was made after commission for a stake of £70.50.

I prefer to trade the match odds markets pre match and in the first half. The strategy above however is a good one to consider in the second half if the right conditions are met.

This strategy is basically an outright bet on a goal being scored. Like all betting strategies you need to consider correct bankroll management and game selection to be successful in the long term.

Hopefully this article on laying the correct score will have given you a strategy to consider when trading the second half of a football game.

Resources

https://www.soccerstats.com/

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

Check out our recommendations below.

Paulo Rebelo – The Millionaire Football Trader

Who is Paulo Rebelo?

Paulo Rebelo is a football trader who is quite well known in his native country of Portugal.

In Portugal he has appeared on national television several times and runs the popular betting/trading website https://www.academiadasapostas.com/

Paulo Rebelo - The Millionaire Football Trader — Picture courtesy of www.paulorebelotrader.com/en

At the age of 17 Paulo Rebelo began studying the stock markets. Before going on to study at university.

Rebelo notes that he left university after the first semester as he was disappointed by what was taught. He began to study economics and began to develop and test theories on the stock exchange.

Failing to get a job in portfolio management due his age, lack of experience and no degree Rebelo returned to university.

The Betting Begins

When Paulo returned to college his interest in sports betting began. Consistent results and profits were made from “simple statistical analyzes” in Paulo’s own words.

Sports trading became a major focus of his.

After about a year of betting Paulo Rebelo found Betfair. He realised that he could apply everything he had learnt from studying the financial markets to the Betfair markets.

Rebelo eventually developed his own database and created a model which was able to identify profitable odds in the Betfair markets.

Live trading was Paulo’s next focus and he writes “after identifying, analyzing and correction of some mistakes done, I managed to step-by-step profit with live games. When I started winning consistently I dedicated myself exclusively to trading live.”

There is quite a lot of material from Paulo Rebelo available online. Although it is not perfectly translated into English there are still some useful bits of information and insights to be read.

You can learn more about Paulo Rebelo in the links below.

Resources

https://www.paulorebelotrader.com/en/paulo-rebelo-diary/

https://www.youtube.com/user/SirPauloR

https://www.onlinebettingacademy.com/

References

https://www.paulorebelotrader.com/en/about-me/

Looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

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Accumulator Betting Tips – Can accumulators be profitable?

Accumulator betting profits

Is there a way of making long term profits from accumulator betting?

Accumulator’s are a bookmaker’s best friend they love them.

In fact you very rarely see a bookmaker highlighting a winning punters success. If however that punter hit a 16 team accumulator for £150,000 you might here about it.

Those bettors that are able to find value week in week out against a bookmakers odds over the long term. Will likely find themselves limited to pennies or unable to bet.

Accumulator betting profits — My weekend accumulator

Why then do bookmakers love accumulators?

Bookmakers love accumulators generally because it compounds their margins.

A bookmaker margin is basically the percentage of profit a bookmaker would make if the amount of money bet on all outcomes of a game were equally balanced.

For example if a bookmaker has a 5% margin on a game this would mean they would expect to make £5 for every £100 staked on the game. In a way this is similar to arbitrage betting if a bookmaker has a perfectly balanced book then they are guaranteed a profit no matter the outcome.

So bookmakers in general love accumulator bets because its compounds that margin for them with each selection. A 5% margin on a single bet becomes much more with each selection that you add.

Making a profit from accumulator betting

It is possible to make a profit from accumulator bets and like all methods of betting its about finding value.

I have written about using Asian bookmaker to find value bets with softbooks before. We can use this same approach when making an accumulator have a positive expectation.

For this approach we need to find two or more value bets with the same bookmaker. Then put them in an accumulator.

You can see from the above that Marathonbet have Osasuna at 7.10 whilst Pinnacle have them at odds of 6.61. The no vig odds are 6.74 which indicates Osasuna are a value bet.

Betting in this way is still going to be very volatile but if you are going to place accumulators bets you may as well look for value whilst doing it.

Accumulator betting profits

Using bookmaker promotion’s against them

The best way to make money from accumulator betting is by using bookmaker promotions against them. Oddsmonkey is an excellent matched betting service and has something called the “Acca Matcher” which was created just for this.

Accumulators are such a big money earner for soft bookmakers they want to entice people to bet on them. A popular promotion is “back 5 selections get a free bet if one loses.”

This offered by William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes alongside several other soft bookmakers.

Accumulator betting tips — Oddsmonkey’s Acca Matcher find the best value accumulators available

Selections from the bookmaker are found by Oddsmonkey which are close in price to the Betfair lay odds. This means generally they are close to the true odds.

The Oddsmonkey “Acca Matcher” then uses the Betfair odds alongside the bookmakers money back promotion to show you the expected long term value of placing that bet. There is also the option to lay these selections on the betting exchanges to guarantee small profits.

This process can also be done manually by searching for odds close to the Betfair lay price yourself. Oddsmonkey just enables you to do it quicker and works out the calculations for you.

Bookmaker’s accumulator promotions are a great way of creating accumulator bets with a positive expectation.

I hope this article has given you a few ideas on how to make money from accumulator betting. When used correctly it can be a good way of keeping under a bookmakers radar whilst still extracting some value.

Dobbing – Betfair Trading Strategy

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy

What is Dobbing?

Dobbing stands for “double or bust” it is a Betfair trading strategy used on the horse racing markets.

The Dobbing Betfair strategy involves backing a horse pre race and having a lay bet matched in-play at half the odds of the initial stake.

The aim of a Dob (double or bust) bet is to make a profit that is even to your stake essentially doubling it.

Lets take a look at an example of a potential Dob bet.

In the above image you can see that I have put in a potential back bet of £100 on Bonnie Gals at odds of 5.00.

I have also placed a potential lay bet of £200 at odds of 2.5. If both of these bets were matched you can see that this would equal a profit of £95.00 (£100 – 5% commission) across all outcomes.

If the lay bet is not matched in-play then you would lose your stake, this is where the bust part of the name Dob (double or bust) comes from.

Dobbing essentially works like a straight betting method where you are getting odds of 1.95 ( After 5% commission) on every bet.

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy

How to find a good Dobbing Horse?

The double or bust strategy is one that is quite popular so there are a number of good resources available online.

Patternform for example has an excellent page showing you the historical percentages for horses that have dobbed in the past.

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy — An example of the Patternform Dobbing overview.

This is a good starting point when looking for a horse that will potentially Dob in-play.

There are several factors to take into account when choosing horses that will be a successful Dob trade.

For example you might look at filtering horses that have historically dobbed 75% of the time, look at whether they favour specific courses, Are they likely to lead the race? Weather conditions? Do specific odds ranges work better?

The pace card is another excellent resource from Patternform which gives you an indication of likely front runners in a race.

There are a few different variants of this method with some people opting to try to take more then 100% profit on there stake and others taking less. The most common method however seems to be for people to aim for basically an even money bet minus the commission.

Dobbing can be a profitable angle to consider when looking at trading the horse racing markets and might be something to consider having in your trading arsenal.

Mastering Tennis Trading Review – An Expert’s Insight

Mastering Tennis Trading is a book written by respected professional tennis trader Dan Weston.

Dan Weston has written articles for Pinnacle and Matchbook. He also runs the site https://www.tennisratings.co.uk/ which has lots of good articles on tennis trading and betting.

Mastering Tennis Trading Review

The book mastering tennis trading is as the name implies all about trading the tennis markets on betting exchanges.

I don’t trade tennis myself but I always love to read how professional traders approach trading the betting exchanges. This book does a great job of that and has really given me the motivation to take a much deeper look at trading tennis in 2017.

Mastering Tennis Trading is a total of 117 pages long. It starts with a basic introduction to tennis trading and how to setup yourself up when you are trading. General aspects of the betting exchanges are also explained such as price increments, laying, liquidity etc.

After the general introduction different trading strategies and situations are discussed in detail. One recurring theme that I really liked about this book is the use of data to explain why a trade had or might have a positive expectation.

Mastering Tennis Trading covers quite a large number of trading situations with the main topics including

Pre-match trading
Projected service holds
Pre-match lay to back in-play
Backing favourites when losing
Laying bad servers
Pressure situations
Backing the server
Tiebreak trading
In-game trades
At the end of the first set
The deciding set
Dangerous situations
Psychology risk and bankroll management

So you can see from the above that this book is very thorough and covers pretty much all aspects of trading tennis.

Mastering Tennis Trading Review

Final Verdict

I really enjoyed reading this book and felt that I was getting expert advice from somebody that is trading the tennis markets profitably for a living. Mastering Tennis Trading does an excellent job of explaining the basics of trading tennis and then progresses to show well explained examples of how you can find profitable angles within the tennis markets.

This book gets a clear recommendation from me. It is well written, easy to follow and would add a huge amount of value to anyone that was looking to trade tennis on the exchanges.

It gets a five star rating from me.

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(This article features affiliate links. This means that if you choose to make a purchase, I will earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you. I use or have used any product I review. If I recommend them it is because I believe they are helpful, useful and offer value to their customers. Please do not spend any money on these products unless you feel they will give you value or that they will help you achieve your goals.)

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Variance can be defined as the expectation of the squared deviation of a random variable from its mean, and it informally measures how far a set of (random) numbers are spread out from their mean.

If you struggled with that don’t worry your not alone. This definition doesn’t help those of us that are not very mathematically minded but there is a simpler way of looking at variance.

Variance is one of the key reasons why a lot of people struggle with sports trading and betting. It is something that I myself struggled with a lot when I first started sports trading and betting.

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting — Heads or Tails?

If we look at a coin flip there are two outcomes heads and tails. An equally weighted coin means that there is a 50% chance of it landing on either heads or tails. The nature of variance however means that if we flipped a coin a 100 times it may land on heads 63 times and tails 37 times or heads 44 times and tails 56 times.

The results of a 100 coin tosses would not be exactly 50/50 very often.

We know however that with a fair coin toss the odds are 50/50. With a greater volume of coin tosses the number of heads and tails recorded should move closer to evens.

Understanding Variance in Sports Trading and Betting

Variance exists in sports trading and betting. There are several variables that we need to take into account when we looking at variance in our own betting and trading results.

We need to be aware of the odds that we betting/trading, the sample size of results that we have and what our expected edge is in the market we are trading or betting in.

It is important to develop a better understanding of variance as a sports bettor or trader. When we don’t understand something it often to leads to feelings of frustration and anger.

These feeling often have a negative effect on our sports trading. By breaking down and understanding the different aspects of sports trading we become better more profitable traders.

I am not an expert in probability and statistics it is something I am constantly learning about and trying to develop a greater understanding of. Luckily we live in an age were we can easily access articles and books published by experts in these fields.

Here is some recommended reading if you want to develop a better understanding of variance.

Its all about variance

Luck vs skill in sports betting

Treat Your Sports Trading Like A Business

The first time that I really took gambling seriously was when I started to play online poker. A big influence on me managing to make a consistent profit from poker was from a book called “how to treat poker like a business.“

One of the best poker books I have read.

Now sports betting and trading are different from the game of poker but a lot of the same principles apply. In this article I will look at how to treat your sports trading like a business.

Treat Your Sports Trading Like A Business

Record Keeping

So lets start with what might be the most boring aspect but also one of the most important.

You need to be recording your trades and bets. Its important to see where you are making money and where you are losing money. What is the most profitable part of your trading business is it pre match trades, inplay, favourites, underdogs etc.

All good businesses will have detailed record keeping to know where they are making their profit and look at where they may be potentially losing money.

It is fairly easy to keep on top of this with so many software programs available to help with record keeping.

Recommendations

Open Office

Bettings

Look at the small margins

Small margins amount to big profits in the long term. Increasing a profit margin by 2% or 3% is going to make a huge difference to your profit over the course of a year.

One of the best ways of looking to increase those small profit margins is to look at Matchbook and Smarkets.

This year I have really looked a lot more at Matchbook and Smarkets as obviously the 3% commission difference between these exchanges and Betfair is a big factor.

Betfair is still the most ideal platform for trading it has the most liquid markets and the most real punters. There are markets you can trade on Betfair that you couldn’t on either Matchbook or Smarkets.

Matchbook and Smarkets are however growing and you see more and more liquidity becoming available in these markets. If I am looking to make a standard bet or pre match trade on the bigger football leagues its Smarkets and Matchbook that I look to use ahead of Betfair.

If you can transfer some of your trading or betting to Matchbook or Smarkets then its going to make you are lot more profitable in the long term.

Invest in your sports trading business

If you are treating your trading like a business then you should not be afraid to invest or reinvest some money into it. Even simple investments like a comfortable chair or extra monitor might pay dividends in the long run.

Don't be afraid to put money back into your trading. — Sports Trading and betting could be looked at as your new startup business.

If you prepared to invest in a more formal trading education there are some good traders out there that are offering face to face courses. Peter Webb, Steve Howe and Caan Berry all offer courses that focus on trading the horse racing markets.

If you are trading fast moving markets then you should probably look at using some api software such as Geeks Toy, Bet Angel or Gruss.

You can take a look at some of my recommended betting and trading products to see if there are any that would benefit your sports trading business.

Structure

Structure is very important in trading and betting. You really want to structure your trading and betting to be as efficient as possible.

Successful business’s don’t trade at random and erratic times. They have a structure in place to capitalize on the most profitable times and most profitable customers.

You want to do the same. You want to make sure you are trading when the best opportunities are available.

What is the best day to take off? When should I spend time with friends/family? How can I trade around work?

Spend some time structuring how and when you are going to trade. This can make a big difference to your mentality and help maintain discipline when trading.

If you treat your trading and betting like a serious business you have a much greater chance of making it a success.

Sports Arbitrage For A Living – Interview

Over my years of betting and trading I have come into contact with a lot of different people that make money betting and trading.

One person that I have learnt quite a lot from is my friend Matt who has been doing sports arbitrage for a living now for the last five years.

Sports Arbitrage For A Living

An Interview with a full time arber

SST: First of all thanks for doing this interview Matt. My first question is how did you get started with sports arbitrage?

Matt: Well I had been messing around with betting for a few years pretty unsuccessfully. I came across the concept of sports arbitrage in 2008.

I started off very small and made maybe £30 in the first month but saw that it worked and gradually built it up.

SST: Were you doing matched betting to start with or straight arbitrage?

Matt: I started off with straight arbitrage between Pinnacle and Bwin and then started doing some matched betting or bonus scalping as people were calling it then.

SST: Has the landscape of sports arbitrage changed much since you first started?

Matt:Yes it is always changing. Bookmakers tolerated it more at first. I don’t think there were too many people doing.

The landscape is always changing with new laws and regulations coming in. I think that is why there is skill in becoming a good arbitrage bettor. You always have to adapt.

Full Time Arbitrage

SST: When and why did you decide to go full time with sports arbitrage betting?

Matt: In 2010 my total profits from arbitrage betting were more then my yearly wage. I had made around £40k which was more then my yearly salary.

I weighed up the risk and reward. I realised I could make more money from arbitrage. I didn’t have a great job so there was no issue leaving it.

SST: How have you managed to make a living from sports arbitrage the last five years when bookmakers limit accounts?

Matt: Its not been easy but I have learnt a few trends that bookmakers have. Some hate you taking arbs on horse racing but you can get away with other types of arbitrage for a long time.

Then you have exchanges, I live in the UK so there is also shop arbing. I have done a lot of the casino bonus stuff in the last few years also. There are lots of ways to make money from the bookies if you are creative.

I also have a deal with a few friends and family members where I act as an advisor of sorts and manage their accounts. I pay them 10% of the profits that I make each month and its a good deal for everyone.

SST: I understand. If someone wanted to get into sports arbitrage what would your advise be.

Matt: Everyone seems to be matched betting these days I would start with that.

Start small and don’t put all your money in one bookmaker. Use trusted bookmakers that have been around for a while. As there are quite a few shady ones that operate and will steal your money.

SST: Which bookmakers do you suggest using?

Matt: Use all the ones from oddschecker.com they are all pretty good. Avoid ones that just arrived on the scene as many don’t last such as Bet666.

Start off with the major bookmakers Bet365 and William Hill for example.

SST: Any other advice?

Matt: Don’t worry about account limitation people get hung up on this. You will get accounts limited but new reputable bookmakers start up and then a whole new money stream opens up again.

If you really work at it its a great way to earn a very nice second income. If you really make the most of it then it can become a full time occupation.

SST: Cheers Matt thanks for you time.

If you want to start profiting from sports betting, arbitrage and trading. I recommend this service which is currently contributing the biggest profit in my 50k in a year challenge.

Betfair Scalping – Football Trading Strategies

In this article I am going to write about finding the best opportunities for scalping the football markets.

Swing Trading Football Strategies

Big name player gets injured

One of the most profitable strategies for scalping the football markets is to take advantage of injuries that occur in play. I will use an example from the Euro 2016 final.

During the first half of the Euro 2016 final Portugal’s star player Cristiano Ronaldo went down injured and looked like he could not continue.

In a matter of minutes Portugals price flew out from 4.5 to around 5.2. This enabled traders who reacted quickly to make around 13% profit on their stake.

This example is a more of a swing trade and it doesn’t happen that often. If you aware and act quick enough though there is good profit to made from little risk.

(In the 2018 Champions League final this also happened when Mo Salah got injured for Liverpool.)

Short Term Scalping

Killing Time

One of my favourite times to scalp a market is when one team is deliberately killing time and faking injuries.

Italian games are good for scalping opportunities

This a common scenario when an underdog is leading a game and time is ticking down during the second half. The key to being profitable in this scenario is having quick enough pictures and recognizing which teams have a tendency to stall the play.

In this scenario you have the option of laying the losing favourite or laying the overs market. You should be able to gain a few ticks each time doing this again with very low risk.

There are other opportunities for scalping the football markets on Betfair but these are two with the lowest risk.

Key things to consider

Here are a few key things to consider when you are scalping the football markets on Betfair.

How fast are your pictures?

– You really need the fastest pictures available, if you are streaming with a 20 second delay then you are going to be behind the majority of the market.

How liquid is the market you are trading?

-If you are trading a Champions League game you should have no problem getting in and out of the market.

-If you are trading a low level FA Cup game on a wet Wednesday night the opportunity to scalp properly is probably not going to be there.

What is you risk vs reward ratio?

-What is your profit percentage each time you enter a scalp trade?

-How much of your bank are you willing to lose should something go against you?

When used in the right situations scalping can be a good way of building some very low risks profits during a game of football.

I hope these Betfair scalping football trading strategies have given you a few more options to think about.

(In order to scalp successfully on Betfair you will need to use some software that allows quick entries and exits into the markets. I currently use Geeks toy having found this to be the quickest and one of the most efficient pieces of software available.)

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy – Small Risk For A Large Payoff

In this article I am going to detail a horse racing arbitrage strategy that I like to use occasionally to mix up my betting patterns.

This strategy is profitable and is a good way of taking extra value from the bookies.

If you are unfamiliar with arbitrage and want to learn about arbitrage betting. I recommend reading this excellent resource on arbitrage betting.

This strategy as it is a good way of moving money from bookmakers to exchanges but also getting some value in the process.

First off you are going to need a low commission betting exchange such as Smarkets or Matchbook and bookmakers that offer best odds guaranteed.

To find bookmakers that offer best odds guaranteed use oddschecker and look for a green tick box along the line noted at “best odds guaranteed.”

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy

First off we look for a horse that is a close back and lay price at a BOG(Best Odds Guaranteed) bookmaker (back) and low commission exchange (lay).

For this example I will use Smarkets.

In the picture above you will see the horse Copper Baked is priced at 1.91 with a number BOG bookmakers.

We can offer a lay price that matches the current BOG bookmaker prices. When the lay bet gets matched we then place the back bet at a BOG bookmaker.

From the above you can see that if the odds on Copper Baked stays the same price or comes in further we stand to win £90.90 for Bet365 and lose £90.01 from Smarkets for a £0.89p profit.

If Copper Baked loses we win £100 minus the 2% commission from Smarkets £98 and lose the £100 from Bet365.

Horse Racing Arbitrage Strategy

The key to this method is the large potential upside from the BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) promotion. The Best Odds Guarantee promotion means that if a horses starting price drifts after you backed it you will get paid at the higher starting price.

So if Copper Baked price drifts before the off. With the starting price going off at a price higher then 1.9 then Bet365 would pay out at its starting price under the BOG promotion.

For example if Copper Baked drifted to 2.5 before the off and won we would then be paid £150 by Bet365 and lose only £90 from Smarkets. This would equal a profit of £60 when our risk of loss was only ever £2.

In this example we get a horse rated at 2.5 for odds of 31.0. This does happen fairly regularly in the horse racing markets.

From using this method there is always a much larger upside then there is downside.

Also by sticking to shorter favourites. It doesn’t look like conventional arbitrage to the bookmakers.

This method is a great way of building your trading bank alongside matched betting and arbitrage.

In order to make the most of this horse racing arbitrage strategy you will need an exchange that offers lower commission then Betfair.

Although this strategy is still profitable with Betfair it is much more profitable if you can access the 0% commission deals available with some bookmakers.

In the long term paying 2% less commission is going to going to add to much greater profits.

You can get 0% commission on both Smarkets and Matchbook by joining Oddsmonkey They offer a number of horse racing markets with ever increasing liquidity.

Alongside a host of other valuable tools that will allow you to make money from the sports betting markets.