A fight that would’ve sounded like pure fantasy a few years ago is now headlining in Miami on 19th December 2025 as Jake Paul steps in against former heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua. It’s an eight round professional bout, streamed globally, and no matter what you think of the matchmaking, there is often money to be made in these type of match ups.
This isn’t a world-title fight. It’s a commercial event built on star power and narrative but market inefficiencies can appear in these crossover fights, especially when hype distorts perception.
Below is a breakdown focused on value, risk management, and how the matchup translates into betting angles.
The Matchup – A Massive Step Up for Paul
Jake Paul has built a solid boxing record for a crossover athlete. He trains seriously, he’s physically strong, and he’s been matched well. But moving from fighting old or undersized UFC fighters to Anthony Joshua is a completely different world.
He talks about speed, movement, and angles but there is a huge size disparity, Joshua is also not a slow lumbering heavyweight fighter either. This is the first fight of his career where the deck is firmly stacked against him.
The big unknown for Paul is how he copes when he’s hit cleanly by a genuine top 10 heavyweight puncher. Every fighter has a plan until the first heavy shot lands, and Joshua’s power is the real deal.
Where Joshua Stands Right Now
Joshua is not in his prime and has been criticized at times for inconsistency, but he’s still an elite level operator. Even a 70% version of AJ should be far too strong and too polished for a novice fighter like Paul.
The weight-cap clause (rumoured to cap Joshua at 245 lbs) might narrow the physical gap, but it won’t level the skill gap.
The real question bettors should ask is simple:
Does Joshua approach this like a business job or like a statement fight?
If it’s the former, the method of victory markets become more interesting.
From a Betting Perspective
The fights odds are obviously wide, and it should be. Joshua is better in almost every measurable category. The question is whether there’s a smarter way to extract value than simply backing the favourite.
As strange as it sounds, Joshua by decision may be the most mispriced angle in the market.
Why?
- Much like the Tyson vs Paul fight, this could be a glorified sparring match.
- He might prioritise control and mitigate any risk by boxing on the outside.
- Joshua has been embarrassed before against Andy Ruiz Jr and is coming off a KO loss in his last fight.
- Given the skill/size disparity, Joshua may use this as an excuse to get 8 rounds under his belt.
If AJ decides to fight with caution, this can easily drift to the cards.
Suggested Bets
- Anthony Joshua to win – 1.13
Safe, straightforward, suitable for a short odds accumulator strategy. - Anthony Joshua by Decision – 7.5
Oversized price considering it’s only eight rounds and Joshua may approach the fight conservatively.