Ryan is a former mixed martial arts and kickboxing competitor. After finishing university he played online poker and taught English for a living in Thailand for a few years. Upon returning to England his focus has been on making a living from sports trading, betting and arbitrage. Over the course of 5 years he has managed to make a six figure profit using the strategies discussed on this site. Ryan runs the sports betting and trading website www.smartsportstrader.com
Let me tell you something, every f***ing jabroni that’s ever said. “I think that guy is going to win” and then gets it right. Think he’s the f***ing Nostradamus of UFC betting!
Making money betting UFC is a tough gig, I’ve seen grown men cry and s*** in their pants when a big losing bet goes down. You wanna be the guy crying on the floor with s*** in his pants because you didn’t f***ing read this article?”
Dana White
(Just to be clear this is a parody and Dana White didn’t really say this. At no point has Dana White endorsed this article or even seen it.)
Please don’t sue me Dana
Make Money Betting On UFC – 5 Key Strategies
Alright so after those inspiring words that didn’t really come from Dana White, let’s dig into actually how to make money from UFC betting.
For the past 5 years I have been taking betting pretty seriously, in that time managing to make over six figures in profits. The single sport that I have had the most success betting in, using only my own knowledge happens to be mixed martial arts.
Betting on UFC fights is something I am very familiar with.
In this article I am going to reveal FIVE different angles that you can consistently use to find value when betting on UFC.
Fade The Marketing Machine
The UFC much like boxing relies on engaging fans through story telling and character!
Because of this it is often in the interest of the UFC to put more promotion behind fighters that have more character. Fighters that sell more tickets and have a wider appeal. This can often influence the betting market and as a result create value.
Brock Lesnar for example was a fighter that the UFC was fully behind. He transcended the sport of mixed martial arts and became the heavyweight champion beating 45 year old Randy Couture. Subsequent wins over Frank Mir and a comeback victory after being destroyed in the first round by Shane Carwin.
Had Brock Lesnar calling himself the “baddest man on the planet.”
His next fight came against the undefeated at time Cain Velasquez. A heavyweight that had shown a great gas tank, sharp striking and the wrestling pedigree to contend with Brock Lesnar. If you removed all the hype it was pretty obvious who the better fighter was.
Cain Velasquez closed as a 2.55 underdog in that fight. He handily beat Brock Lesnar inside the first round via TKO.
Every sharp UFC bettor I knew at that time was on Cain Velasquez.
Amanda Nunes as 2.6 underdog against Ronda Rousey is a similar example of the UFC marketing machine skewing the odds.
Recently Francis Ngannou’s odds against Cyril Gane went from 2.0 out to 2.3. Mainly based on the promotion of the UFC heavily favouring Gane. This was due to Ngannou butting heads with the UFC over contract issues
Whenever the UFC marketing machine is heavily behind one fighter it is always worth taking a look at the opposing side. Removing the hype and looking at the skill sets and how fighters match up.
Look To Oppose Fighters That Finish Fights
Every UFC fan loves a fighter that puts an exclamation mark on a win. Whether that’s with a knockout or a submission victory, definitive wins are something that really elevate a fighters stock.
Sometimes a fighter will get consecutive finishes in a row which can really inflate their odds. This links pretty well with the first point. The hype machine starts to generate with these types of fighters, sometimes it will be warranted but often it isn’t.
For every Francis Ngannou there are probably ten Todd Duffee’s.
What level was their opposition?
How was the fight playing out before they got the finish?
What did their gas tank look like?
Have they ever been past the first or second round?
Sometimes you may spot major holes in the overall game of these fighters, which may be exposed in the next fight. There is a lot of variance in the sport of mixed martial arts, sometimes fighters benefit from this and their record may look better then their true skill set.
Unbeaten Fighters/Impressive Win Records Tend To Be Overrated
Bro you ever heard of Khabib Nurmagamedov!!!, undefeated GOAT, this article sucks.
Granted not every unbeaten fighter is going to be overrated but as a general rule. Looking to go against undefeated fighters in the UFC is usually a good idea.
Why?
Because undefeated records/impressive win records don’t mean much without the context of their opposition. let’s take a recent example Joseph Holmes (record 7-1) came up against Jamie Pickett (record 12-6).
Looking at the skill sets of the two there didn’t seem to much difference however Holmes was favoured and Pickett was 2.35 underdog. The odds seemed largely based on the records of the two fighters.
UFC experience was with Pickett, he had also fought the better competition in his career. He had been to multiple decisions. Holmes on the other hand had been winning most fights in the first round and had only two 3 round fights under his belt.
Fighter records very rarely give a good estimation of how a fight is likely to play out.
Boring Fighters Are Underrated
One fighter that UFC fans never really got behind was Jake Shields.
Shields wasn’t particularly flashy, didn’t have an ounce of charisma and his striking was pretty basic. However he was an effective grappler, very tough and could grind out victories against high level fighters.
He rose the ranks defeating Dan Henderson as a big underdog in Strikeforce. Before coming to the UFC to compete against GSP for the championship. He lost convincingly.
Backing Shields in his last 6 UFC fights after losing to GSP would have seen a profit of £340 staking £100 each fight. Defeating Demain Maia and Tyrone Woodley as a decent sized underdog.
Shields is the perfect example of a boring fighter that especially as an underdog usually offered a lot of value.
Give me a boring fighter that wins minutes with grappling control or a solid jab over a wild man every time. Especially if the UFC fan base isn’t particularly high on them, as that’s usually reflected in the odds also.
Method Of Victory Markets Are Gold
The majority of professional sports bettors will tell you that prop markets or secondary markets, are usually more profitable then the higher volume match odds market.
Reason being, that markets with less volume (less money bet on them) tend to be less efficient. They are not looked at with as much scrutiny.
This means that bookmakers don’t put as much effort into pricing them up. In comparison to the match odds (fight odds) market where the majority of money is bet.
One other solid reason to look at method of victory markets or over under props etc, is that bookmakers can be slow to adjust them. A local shop bookmaker in my area doesn’t even bother to adjust them despite the money line (fight odds) changing.
Which can be big if a fight has been incorrectly priced early on or some new information is released. Could be injury news, a terrible weight cut etc.
This can increase the likely hood of a finish occurring in the fight. Thus offering value in the prop market when perhaps there isn’t any in the fight odds market. Which has been adjusted.
Looking to make money betting on the UFC?
Don’t ignore the prop markets!
Make Money Betting On UFC – Conclusion
Those are 5 angles that are really worth considering when betting on the UFC.
Combining them, watching tape on fighters and keeping up with the latest UFC news. Is going to give you a very solid footing when it comes to making money betting on the UFC.
Other ways to profit from betting on the UFC are –
Which are strategies that work on all sports. But have a limited shelf life due to relying on bookmaker promotions or slow bookmakers that limit accounts.
Mixed martial arts is a great sport to watch. Making money from the sport of mixed martial arts is also very possible with a disciplined strategy.
Hopefully this article has given you some ideas on where to find the value, when betting on the UFC.
(This article features affiliate links. This means that if you choose to make a purchase, I will earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you.
I use or have used any product I review. If I recommend them it is because I believe they are helpful, useful and offer value to their customers.
Please do not spend any money on these products unless you feel they will give you value or that they will help you achieve your goals.)
Currently William are offering £30 in free bets after staking £10. They also offer recurring bonus’s most weeks with bet £10 get £5 in free bets.
If you are looking for a low risk way to make some money online. Then taking advantage of free bet offers is an easy way to do this.
This is by far the easiest method of making money from a William Hill account. If you want to learn matched betting click here for our simple guide.
However if you want to scale things up and make more from your William Hill account, let’s take a look at a few more profitable strategies.
Basketball Betting
European Basketball is an area where William Hill seem to offer the best odds on a regular basis. They are slow to move their odds in comparison to most other bookmakers.
Which means they are often the best value bookmaker when it comes to betting specifically on European basketball.
For example the “Slam Dunk Wizard” a profitable basketball tipster from the Betting Gods network. Often tips selections at William Hill as they have the best odds available on many selections.
The smaller European basketball markets seem to offer a lot of value. If you have good knowledge in this area or just want to follow a tipster such as Slam Dunk Wizard. Then William Hill often offers the best value.
Horse racing betting can be very profitable when done correctly. There are various promotions applied to horse racing betting. Along with multiple profitable tipsters that are able to make a profit betting in these markets.
As one of the biggest bookmakers in the UK and Europe. William Hill offer a lot of opportunities to make money from horse racing.
One promotion that is worth taking advantage of is bets odds guaranteed. This means that if a horse drifts in a price and goes off at a higher starting price then you backed. Your bet will be paid at the starting price should it win.
The way to take advantage of this promotion is to place bets that are close to an exchange lay price.
For example if a horse is priced 2.00 with William Hill and is 2.02 to lay on an exchange such as Smarkets. You can back and lay it for for a small loss.
Let’s say we back it for £100 at odds of 2.00, we also lay it for £100 at 2.02.
If the price drifts and the horse wins, you make a profit a on additional bonus of being paid at the best odds guaranteed price.
For example if the horse drifts to a starting price of 2.5.
The back bet would pay back £150, whilst the lay bet would lose £101.
This would equal a profit of £49 would be made from very little risk.
Similar to European basketball, the horse racing markets are an area where there is money to be made from a William Hill account. This can be done using a betting tipster with a proven winning record.
Quentin Franks horse racing service for example will often tip bets with William Hill.
From the statistics in the above image, you can see that since 2014. He has been very successful betting in the horse racing markets that William Hill offer.
Last on the list is taking advantage of casino offers.
This can be a very lucrative way of making money online and William Hill regularly have casino offers that are worth taking advantage of.
There are times when bookmakers or casino’s offer their customers a bonus. When they do this they often flip the edge that the casino usually has over to the customers. If you only play casino games when you are being offered an advantage. It is possible to make a profit over the long term.
To highlight this here is my P/L graph for casino offers.
A profit of over £20,000 was made after over 4285 casino offers.
If you want learn how to take advantage of casino offers, we have an detailed step by step guide on how you can so.
There you have it 5 different ways to make money from a William Hill account.
Covering multiple different strategies depending on your risk tolerance and how you would like to approach your betting.
Using all of the strategies above across multiple bookmakers has enabled me to make a six figure profit from sports betting.
Finding area’s where bookmaker’s offer the most opportunity and exploiting them to the fullest. Is a great way to make money from the sports betting markets.
The 2021-22 Championship season is quickly drawing to a close, there is still plenty that needs to be ironed out in the final few weeks of the campaign. It seems only a matter of time before Fulham are crowned champions and Barnsley, Derby Country and Peterborough United fate is sealed as three relegated sides.
However, there is still plenty to play for elsewhere — with the second automatic promotion spot and the four play-off places proving hard to call in the Championship betting with Betfair. So, with plenty of headlines left to written, let’s take a look at three candidates for the Player of the Season award.
Aleksandar Mitrović – Fulham
On the basis of the award more often than not going to a forward, who better is there to kick things off with than the prolific Aleksandar Mitrović.
The Serbian has sent records tumbling for Fulham so far this season, with his 38 goals in as many Championship games blowing the previous record for most strikes in a season (31), set by Ivan Toney just last year, out of the water.
Mitrović has been an influential factor in Marco Silva’s swashbuckling side, who have scored a huge 94 goals this campaign. However he is starting to garner a reputation as somewhat of a ‘Championship striker’ due to the massive gulf in his performances between the second and first tiers. With Fulham all but crowned champions, that’s a title he’ll be hoping to shake when back in the Premier League next season.
Ben Brereton Díaz – Blackburn Rovers
If the classic Sunday League ‘Most Improved Player’ award existed in the Championship, we have no doubt Ben Brereton Díaz would be this year’s recipient.
The Stoke-on-Trent-turned-Chilean forward has been unrecognisable for Blackburn Rovers since returning from the Copa América last summer. Scoring a whopping 20 goals in the second tier by late December, more than he’d managed in five previous seasons combined.
Unfortunately, the 22-year-old hasn’t found the back of the net since hitting the 20-mark in December — a feat that was 1000/1. International commitments and a lengthy spell on the side-lines with an ankle ligament injury have played its part in that. Back to full fitness now though, Tony Mowbray will be hoping that the forward begins to fire on all cylinders again so that Blackburn can secure a play-off place.
Dominic Solanke
With Brereton Díaz slowing up on the goalscoring front. Dominic Solanke has been able to make up ground on the Chile international and put a bit of a gap between him and the Blackburn man in the top scorer charts. Netting his 24th goal of the season for Bournemouth in 3-2 win over Bristol City at the beginning of April.
Having moved to south coast from Liverpool for £19-odd million in January 2019, Solanke was yet to really live up to his relatively high price tag at the Vitality Stadium.
So he’ll be happy that he’s finally beginning to repay the club and its fans for their belief. If he can manage the find the net a few more times in Bournemouth’s remaining seven games. Which they’ll likely be tipped to win in the Championship score predictions, he might just guide the Cherries back to the Premier League!
Few innovations in sports betting have been as revolutionary as live betting. The ability to place a wager on the action happening before us has been a boon to many punters, although it needs to follow an effective strategy.
While most sports offer live betting these days, football remains the big draw. As a result, you’ll find 100s of in-play markets, particularly for big matches in the Champions League, Premier League and Europe’s other top divisions.
But when it comes to a live betting strategy, is there anything about that medium that gives us a particular advantage? And, on the other hand, are there any pitfalls?
The answer is yes and yes.
To be clear, we want to look at the emotional side of live betting here, how it makes you feel about placing a bet.
React to shifts in momentum
Starting with the advantages, we can say one of the fundamental benefits is that it allows you to react to shifts in the momentum of a game. We have all been there before where we have backed a team fully convinced that it will win, only to see the players really off it as soon as the game starts.
Want an example?
Look no further than the 2014 World Cup Semi-Final between Brazil and Germany. Pre-game, Brazil were clear favourites to win the match in front of tens of thousands of home fans at the Maracanã Stadium, but within minutes we knew something was wrong as the Brazil players looked visibly shaken.
Final result? 7-1 Germany.
The point is that live betting is a gift in situations like that where you can pinpoint what’s happening in front of you is not reflected in the odds.
Ask yourself this question: How quickly could bookies react to the debacle in the Maracanã? Not quick enough.
Of course, a football match that took place eight years ago is just one example. But within games, you often get mini-shifts in momentum, a sense of inevitability that the match is going to turn on its head. The stunning shift in momentum when Liverpool beat Barcelona 4-0 (coming back from a 3-0 aggregate deficit) in the Champions League in 2019.
If you want a more recent example, how about when PSG fell apart against Real Madrid last month? A 17-minute hat-trick from Karim Benzema may have stunned pundits at the time, but you could see the PSG defence was all over the place. For some, the Madrid comeback felt inevitable.
Live betting can be emotional
So, what, if anything, represents the pitfalls of live betting on football? Well, for a start, those shifts in momentum can be deceptive at times. Moreover, they can make you doubt your previously concrete assessment of an event. All football games ebb and flow, even when stronger teams play weaker ones.
The point, as such, is that live betting can sometimes lose the courage of your convictions. It might sound like a cliché, but good teams often win when playing badly. Quality players will have moments that determine the outcome of a game, even if things aren’t going well around them.
Manchester United have made a habit of this in recent years. Yes, they have become a laughing stock among rival fans. But objectively speaking, they have achieved good results when playing badly.
Perhaps the most significant pitfall of live betting is that it’s too emotional. By that, we mean you are going to experience a range of highs and lows during a match, particularly when you have money riding on it. Everyone knows that you bet better with a cool head and live betting allows you to reach instantly: if it’s pulling on your emotions, then you might not be following the best path.
Of course, whatever you do with live betting, you should remember to always keep in mind the strategy you have set yourself beforehand. It’s all too easy to keep tapping the bet now button when watching a game. It should be fun, not stressful.
So bear that in mind the next time you bet in-play.
March marked the 60th consecutive month in treating betting as a business.
After a really strong February I was really hoping to finally break over 5k profit in month.
Let’s take a look at results from March to see if it that happened.
Value Betting/Trading
Value betting and trading went like a dream in March. I continued to develop an edge that had been working really well. Staked more aggressively when I was confident, traded positions that I thought had a high likely hood of shortening in price.
Had some big in-play UFC bets which came off as during March we had some earlier start times.
During March there were 505 value bets.
A profit of £10,716 was made.
This month was pretty ridiculous in terms of profit. It was way bigger then any previous month. As much as I would like to go into more detail about the exact strategies I am using.
Giving too much away would only be detrimental to my own betting and create competition for the bets I get on. What I will say is that it is all based on looking at different ways to beat the closing odds.
Below is a video showing proof of results (screenshots are very easy to fake). Although I can’t give away all my strategies, I still want to be transparent and give people motivation to see what is possible if you stick with things.
Not Familiar With Matched Betting Or Value Betting ?
Solid but unspectacular results for casino offers. Only really doing weekly offers now from Bet365 and the occasional reload offers. Could do a lot more but would rather spend that time looking at sports betting as the moment.
It’s been a breakeven year so far, for my pre fight MMA selections. Which I’m not overly concerned about as my volume is low and still pretty confident long term I cam beat the markets.
In March a small amount of profit was made.
12 bets were made in March.
A profit of £134 was made
Horse Racing Tipsters
Cheltenham festival came and went in March. I managed go without a single win over the whole festival.
Came close with a few seconds, CD Systems also tipped up Corach Rambler which was a winner. However for some reason my bet was only partially matched on Matchbook. Which meant I missed out on a decent winner.
Overall the horse racing portfolio still feels a little flat. With no big international football tournament this summer, doing more on horse racing is something I will look at.
A small profit of £292 was made from horse racing.
These are the current horse racing tipsters I use.
Breaking £10k profit in month having previously never won over £5k was pretty f***ing awesome not going to lie. But it didn’t change anything.
Kind of half expected a fireworks display and some C list celebrity knocking on the door with a giant cheque.
What It did prove however was that going all in and actively looking at developing my own edges. Rather then relying on tipsters. Was something I should have done probably much sooner.
Whilst I don’t think that every month will be as good as March. I am pretty confident that this year should see a new year high in profit for betting.
Still looking at joining FTS Income for next season. Will probably look also at Tradeonsports during April as it looks like they have made some new developments. Would really like to develop my in-play betting, the edge I have in pre match isn’t going away any time soon. But I still think its important to keep finding new edges where possible.
Overall it was a stand out month. April’s results should be interesting as it should be a good indicator of whether I just ran extremely well in March ir things will continue this way.
For the last few months the recurring thought has been “pivot or go all in.”
The betting landscape in the UK doesn’t look the best at the moment. So it did make sense to look at what other opportunities there are to make an extra income.
Investing, cryptocurrency, blogging, affiliate marketing, Amazon fba, youtube. There is an endless amount of ways to look at making an extra income.
However in February I decided to focus entirely on betting/trading for the rest of the year. Its the old adage of being a “jack of all trades, master of none.”
Let’s take a look at results from February to see if it paid off.
Value Betting/Trading
January was a tough month for value betting however February more then made up for it.
From looking at the markets over a longer period, something I noticed was recurring patterns that happen pretty consistently. A positive from this is that I can normally get down on exchanges and add a trading element rather then straight up value betting.
For example with Young Boys you can see I get odds of 2.42, when they are trading at 2.06. By trading out half the stake or more. It creates a larger value bet.
This doesn’t pan out every time however I am able to read the markets well enough to be right about 70% of the time.
Still also value betting a lot with bookmakers and in shops, but this strategy has been working well so far. Plus has the benefit of not having to worry about limitations.
This alongside Bet365 putting out several value bets everyday meant there was a decent increase in volume for February.
During February there were 433 value bets.
A profit of £4768 was made.
Not Familiar With Matched Betting Or Value Betting ?
All in all though it was bit of a car crash for the month of February as everything lost.
Not a good sign to lose nearly 50 points in month. Especially considering the amount of volume is much less now that Beth Bet is not providing 20 -30 selections. Generally betting somewhere between 2-7 selections a day currently.
These are the current horse racing tipsters I use.
Everything else which includes some in-play betting, trading and a few bets from free tipsters accounted for a profit of £847.
Traded a few positions on the UFC and a few profitable in-play football bets accounted for the majority of the profit.
Thoughts
After a poor start in January, it was nice to rebound with my best ever month in February. At one point I was £5k in profit which would have been a cool barrier to break. But a downswing at the end of the month prevented that.
Overall pretty happy with how things are going. Making a firm decision to go all in with betting, alongside still working full time. Payed off well in the short term.
Edges come and go, but I do think I have found a new value betting approach that is going to work long term.
I am always looking for new ways to make money from sports betting. Looking at joining FTS Income for next season. Having listened to Ian (the guy that runs FTS) podcasts on and off for a few years. It’s clear to me that he is legitimate and has made good money from betting/trading.
So learning his process and approach is only going to benefit me going forward.
If anyone is a long term member and has any feedback I would love to exchanges messages.
Are you looking to expand or take your sports betting platform to the next level?
The key is to find creative ways to retain the existing users while attracting new users to the sportsbook. The reason is simple – these users are the ones to use the sports betting services you offer on the platform. So, it makes sense to have as many of them as possible glued to your sportsbook.
Finding the best ways to go about this doesn’t have to be difficult, because we have figured it out for you.
Read this article to discover some of the steps you need to take to expand your existing sportsbook platform.
1. Get the Sportsbook Provider to Offer Post-Launch Services
This is the most logical thing to do. Even before the sportsbook platform is launched, you want to confirm from the provider if post-launch services are available. This can go a long way to help you save costs while making it easier to make the needed improvements on the sportsbook at the right time.
The post-launch services include but are not limited to:
Maintaining the sportsbook software.
Marketing support for promoting the sportsbook platform.
Regularly updating the games and introducing new titles.
2. Integrate Live Odds Software
The live odds softwareenables the live updates of the odds used across the different sportsbook betting types. This also offers the users/players the opportunity to follow their odds and see if they could be adjusted to increase their chances of winning the bet.
3. Be Intentional About Promoting Your Sportsbook Brand
You are the chief promoter of your sportsbook platform and even if you have hired others to do the work, your inputs are needed once in a while. Marketing the platform does two things for the brand:
It creates awareness, thereby, attracting more sportsbook lovers to check it out.
You will be able to come up with creative ways to promote the brand while integrating more services that your competitors have not thought about.
Here are a couple of ideas on how to promote your sportsbook platform:
Hire Influencers in the Sports Niche
Some sports pundits would help promote your sportsbook. Note that you should prioritize working with those with a large following on social media because they tend to record more conversions than those with lower followers.
The Money is on the List: Use Email Marketing
Ever heard that “the money is on the list?” You can make more conversions from those leads who had exchanged their email addresses and names for a freebie you offered.
Run Paid Adverts
Organic adverts might bring some leads your way but using paid adverts can scale things up faster for your sportsbook brand. Therefore, consider running targeted adverts on the following platforms:
Facebook
Twitter
Google
Use Content Marketers
The right content is the one that “speaks the right message to the right audience.” Content marketing can be used to promote your sportsbook platform, whereby you will be using more storytelling to tell related stories that encourage the readers to check out your sportsbook platform.
Create YouTube Videos
You can create a niche YouTube channel, where you publish videos related to sportsbooks. These videos can be in the form of:
Tips on how to use a sportsbook.
Information about the latest content added to your sportsbook platform.
Guide on how to bet on games available on sportsbooks.
Take Advantage of Affiliate Marketing
Affiliate marketing is a business model that allows someone to earn a commission for attracting a sale. In the case of a sportsbook, it is someone who successfully attracted users to sign up, play wager on the games on a sports betting platform.
You can either build a customized affiliate network for your sportsbook or use any of the popular sports betting affiliate networks.
Build a Mobile App for Your Sportsbook
Mobile gaming is becoming increasingly popular than playing games from a fixed spot. Thus, consider developing a dedicated mobile application for your sports betting platform.
Besides, you can also use the mobile app to increase your sportsbook’s conversion rate. This can be done by:
Sending timely notifications to the users, on the latest updates on the sportsbook platform.
Sending customized betting offers to the users. This can be done after using built-in tracking and analytical systems to monitor the preferences of the users.
Consider integrating Social Gaming – a form of interactive gaming that allows the users to play against one another, compare their results, and share ideas on how to improve their gambling skills.
Make an Inroad to Offline Publicity
Now that you have solidified your sportsbook’s base online, it is time to make an inroad to the offline ecosystem. You can easily do this by finding a way of collaborating with retail outlets. The collaboration could be in the form of:
Placing your sportsbook’s QR codes at retail betting outlets, sports clothing stores, and sports arenas.
Offering coupons to fans of your sportsbook so they can shop at specific shopping outlets.
Final Thoughts: Start Making Plans to Expand Your Sportsbook Platform
Now is the right time to make plans on how to expand your sportsbook platform. Always make sure that the interest of the users is also considered in every step you take.
The integration of live odd software is the right move, as it would increase user engagement. By collaborating with others who are committed to the growth of your sportsbook platform, you can achieve all these in the shortest time.
First month into 2022 and it was a rocky one from a betting perspective.
Value betting went through a period were it was just constant losses for a couple of weeks. Didn’t matter what the odds were or how much I beat the closing line.
Just seemed like the god of betting, enjoyed seeing me lose day after day.
Let’s get into the results from January!
Value Betting
Value betting was a bit of a roller coaster this month. Went through a losing period that I never experienced before early on in the month. For around 100 bets it seemed like 90% lost, whilst it was very frustrating. I wasn’t doing anything different from the last few years.
It’s a proven strategy, the staking was fine. It was just a case of riding out the storm(Was what I told myself to stop me launching the computer through the window.)
On the plus side found a few new angles this month to get on more value bets on. Started staking more and trading the bets I was confident would shorten.
This is something I have been doing for quite a while. Value betting day in day out has meant that I have looked at thousands of betting markets. Because of this there are a few patterns that occur over and over. Some of these can be bet using the exchanges, along with local shops.
Trading these selections should reduce variance with value betting. Effectively your just getting even larger value bets. For example getting Mansfield at 4.7 when the true odds were 2.7.
During January there were 250 value bets.
A loss of -£1083 was made.
Not Familiar With Matched Betting Or Value Betting ?
A small winning month for casino offers in January.
Not a whole lot going on with casino offers at the moment. There are a few recurring Bet365 offers week in and week out. Casumo had a decent 30% cashback offer on live casino games. Overall however not getting a lot of volume at the moment.
Only 7 bets in January as there wasn’t the usual weekly UFC event. With only two events happening.
Overall a profit of £789 was made
Horse Racing Tipsters
The horse racing tipsters delivered again in January. With Beth Bet being a big part of that and providing the majority of the selections.
So it was it was a surprise to get an email in the last week of January. Stating that they would be closing the service.
Not sure why, there was no reason given. However it has left quite a hole in the horse racing tipster portfolio. Which will really effect the turnover.
Overall a profit of £1268 was made.
The staking plan for horse racing is very simple – £10 on horses odds of 10.00 above and £20 on horses at odds of below 10.00.
Beth Bets exit leaves two horse racing tipsters at the moment.
Beth Bet has opened my eyes to how profitable horse racing betting can be. I am looking to add some more tipsters and if anyone has recommendations please let me know.
Could have been much better but I disappointingly missed the email (my own fault) sent from the Smart Betting Club’s free tipster Rainmaker. Who gave out the winner Luke List at odds of 80.00.
Overall however it was good to get a winning month from the golf betting.
There were 67 golf bets in January, a profit of £265 was made.
Trading/Free Tipsters/Misc
Everything else accounted for a loss of -£441.
Mainly down to some of the free tipster selections that I take performing badly. Last year using several different free tipsters was pretty profitable. Then when Betmarkets folded (which was where I was getting a lot of tips from) I just stopped doing it.
However there are a number of decent people to follow on twitter that give out good betting tips.
An interesting month were mid way through I had pretty much accepted it would be a losing one. One positive aspect of this month was despite when things were going really sh**. At no point did I consider changing anything that I was doing, as long term I know it wins.
Which earlier on in my betting would not have been the case.
Caught in two minds when it comes to betting. As much I enjoy it, the future of betting professionally in the UK doesn’t look great. Single customer view (looks to be happening) and silly monthly deposit limits have already effected some of my accounts. In terms of scaling things up these issues do get in the way.
Whilst I am sure I will always bet whilst its profitable. I have for a while been contemplating about putting more time into something else. Just in case making a primary income from betting becomes something that’s not possible anymore.
But for now whilst there is still money to made, it makes sense to see how far I can take it.
Results For January
Value Betting- –£1083
Casino Offers – £504
Free Tipsters/Trading- -£441
SSBC/MMA – £789
Horse Racing Tipsters – £1268
Golf Value – -£265
Total Made In January
£1302
Overall Profit Since The Challenge Began
£129,789
Recommended For Matched Betting/ Value Betting/ Arbitrage
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You have received an email from your bookmaker, which goes something like this.
After reviewing your account we can no longer offer you promotions and your stakes may be subject to limitation.
On further inspection you log into your account, try to place a bet and…………………
Find that you are only allowed to bet a very small of money.
Have You Done Something Wrong!
Whereas before a bookmaker like Skybet/Bet365/William Hill would allow you to stake several hundred even thousands. Now they are saying that you are only allowed a paltry £4.55.
Bookmaker account closures and limitations are becoming more and more common!
Why Bookmakers Limit Or Close Accounts
Sometimes bookmakers do have legitimate reasons to close accounts. Perhaps you already have an account and are using trying to open multiple accounts in your own name. This is against most bookmakers terms and conditions which will result in them closing them down.
However very often a bookmaker closes accounts to protect their business. In the case of bookmakers limiting accounts this is always the case.
Basically they are saying no more “no mas” we don’t want to lose any more money to you.
It’s an admission by them that you are beating them at their own game or that at least they think you will beat them at their own game in the long term.
So they either close your account completely or limit you to such small amounts that you can’t really hurt their bottom line.
Here are the main reasons bookmakers close or limit accounts.
Matched Betting ✔
Arbitrage ✔
Making Bets That Consistently Beat The Closing Odds ✔
Betting Like A Professional Gambler (Clear Profitable Pattern Of Bets) ✔
Your Account Is In Decent Profit ✔
Basically if you are in able to make consistent profits then they don’t want your business.
Are Bookmakers Allowed To Limit And Close Your Account?
Unfortunately in the majority of countries there is nothing you can do about a bookmaker closing your account.
(This happened in 2019, but unfortunately hasn’t effected bookmaker behaviour.)
£4.55 limits seem to be a common theme?
However here in the UK this is certainly not the case and bookmakers are given free rule over who they can provide betting accounts for and who they cannot.
There is no law in place can that stop a bookmaker from closing your account and refusing to take a bet.
This means that bookmakers will continue to milk losing customers whilst turning away profitable ones.
How Can I Stop Bookmakers Limiting Or Closing My Account?
There is one clear way to stop bookmakers from limiting or closing your account.
Are you ready for it…………..
Don’t try to make a profit your betting and lose to the bookmakers over the long term.
Honestly with bookmakers such as Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes etc that is the only way to keep your accounts healthy.
Another option is to use betting shops. Although eventually you will also get limited if you don’t bet too frequently and move around shops. Then you can usually get your bets on for a longer period of time in comparison to online bookmakers.
They won’t accept any winning bettors long term. It is not in their business interest and with no law to stop them, they are going to remove the biggest expenses from their business. Which is winning sports bettors
Obviously I wouldn’t expect anyone to actively try to lose but that’s the truth. If you are winning long term then there is no chance of keeping soft bookmaker accounts.
Want to learn how to extend the life of your betting accounts?
Betting exchanges are websites that don’t limit or ban winning players. They use a different betting model to make a profit.
Instead of making money off losing bettors betting exchanges use a commission model where you are charged on winnings. This is generally 2% across the majority of betting exchanges.
It should be noted if you are very successful on the betting exchanges you may need to pay a higher percentage in commission.
The major betting exchanges are –
Betfair
Smarkets
Matchbook
Betdaq
There are a lot of similarities between the three with Betfair being the oldest and most popular. However in recent times it has had a lot of negativity for its frequent maintenance issues. Whilst liquidity is still good on the platform its unreliability is an issue.
Smarkets is next on the list. Used by the majority of matched bettors and arbitrage bettors. The platform itself is very stable with very little unplanned downtime.
Next up is Matchbook. Similar to Smarkets it is used in the UK by a lot of matched bettors/arbitrage bettors.
The amount of money to be matched seems to be lower then Smarkets on the majority of markets. Smarkets also tends to offering better market spreads with less gaps compared to Matchbook.
Betdaq doesn’t really seem to have much going for it. It is the least popular of the betting exchanges. Has changed ownership a few times and introduced a sportsbook. Occassionally they offer 0% commission for certain events which is worth keeping an eye out for.
Out of the four Betting Exchanges listed my personal preference would be Smarkets.
It is the betting exchange I use the most, have had very little issues with and currently seems to be much more stable then Betfair.
Conclusion
We have covered why bookmakers close or limit accounts throughout this article.
Overall unless there is a law that comes into place which forces bookmakers to take bets from everyone.
Then the winning sports bettor is always going to end up being closed or limited very small amounts by bookmakers. Ultimately if a business can remove its biggest expense and breaks no law doing it. Then they are going to exercise their right to do so.
The best option if you don’t want your account closing or being limited. Is to open an account with a betting exchange where being a successful bettor isn’t a reason to close your account.
(This article features affiliate links. This means that if you choose to make a purchase, I will earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you.
I use or have used any product I review. If I recommend them it is because I believe they are helpful, useful and offer value to their customers.
Please do not spend any money on these products unless you feel they will give you value or that they will help you achieve your goals.)
The Basketball Geek comes out of the Betting Gods tipster platform.
In this review our focus will be on.
Are the quoted odds achievable?
Can you follow the Basketball Geek using only exchanges and sharp bookmakers?
Is the Basketball Geek a profitable tipster to follow?
Basketball Geek Results
So first off let’s take a look at our recorded results following this basketball tipster compared to the official results.
The graph above shows my results following the Basketball Geekrecorded as staking £10 per selection. These results are over a 3 month period.
In total there were 522 bets, a profit of £308 was made.
Staking £10 per selection a total of £5220 was staked.
A return on investment of 5.9% was made.
The second graph is the official results for the Basketball Geek.
There were 586 official selections over the same 3 month period.
A total profit of £329 was made to £10 stakes.
Staking £10 per selection a total of £5860 was staked.
A return of investment of 5.6% was made
Why The Difference?
There is a difference in results for a few reasons.
Missed bets
Selections are sent out at 08.00 in the morning. There were a few occasions where I wasn’t able to bet these selections at this time. I either completely missed these selections or they shortened in odds to the point where I wasn’t able to get close to the quoted prices.
Bets likely to get my account limited
Some selections the Basketball Geek sends out are on obscure markets, that I felt were likely to get my account flagged as being sharp. For example betting friendly matches in the Estonian league is likely to raise a red flag to a bookmaker’s risk team looking at my betting account.
I made the decision not to include these bets.
Breaking Down My Results
In total £302 was made from the 1×2 market and Asian Handicap market after 284 selections.
The total profit made from the Under/Over market after 238 selections was £6.
Breaking into down into odds ranges you can see the results in the table below.
Odds 2.00 and below
335 selections
-£33.00
Odds 2.00-3.00
67 selections
£155
Odds 3.01 – 4.00
38 selections
£85
Odds 4.01 – 6.00
34 selections
£80
Odds above 06.01
28 selections
£21
Results Since Adding The Basketball Geek To My Own Portfolio
Aiming to win around £40 per bet (rounding up stakes.)
After 264 bets a total profit of £912 has been made after the initial review was published.
(I stopped using this tipster at the beginning of 2021, This was due to increased bookmaker limitations and I found using sharp bookmakers the odds were getting harder to match.)
Basketball Geek Review –
Are Quoted Odds Achievable?
The Basketball Geek quotes a long term return on investment of 13.77%, is this realistically achievable?
I will be honest no I don’t think it is.
The Basketball Geek is a obviously a very talented tipster but I do think they that should adjust the way they record their odds.
Here is an example of why I think they to need change this.
At 08.00 I received the selections for the day and at the top you can there is a selection for Sporting CP at odds of 2.6.
The Basketball Geek quotes Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, Pinnacle and Dafabet as the bookies with these odds available. (or at least that is how I interpret the email)
However when I go to place this selection I see that these odds were only available with Betfair Sportsbook.
Using oddsportal and looking at the Pinnacle odds, you can see that odds of 2.6 were not available that day and that odds of 2.42 were available when the selection was sent.
So getting the the exact same odds as the Basketball Geek usually requires you to have access to the one bookmaker that is offering a standout price.
I believe a fairer way to record prices would be to take a price which is widely available with 2 or 3 bookmakers.
Also something I would like to see from this tipster and all tipsters in general is minimum bet odds. If the odds do shorten I want to know what are lowest odds I should consider taking.
Getting Better Then Quoted Odds
For balance however I should note that there were times when I could get a better price then the one quoted in the Basketball Geeks email.
Here is a selection sent out for WNBA games with quoted odds of 1.9.
I was able to get 1.98 on this selection.
The more popular the league, the easier it was to match quoted prices or get better then advised. So for example NBA, WNBA and the Chinese Basketball Association were quite easy to follow.
However overall I believe you will generally get lower then the odds quoted in the official email.
Which Bookmakers Do You Need To Follow The Basketball Geek?
In order to follow all of the Basketball Geek’s selections you would need access to a few soft bookmaker accounts.
The most important one would be Bet365. I found that the majority of selections were found with Bet365 and they were often also the best priced bookmaker for a number of selections.
Marathonbet was another bookmaker that were also were quoted often. If you have access to the majority of European bookmakers such as Unibet, William Hill, Betsafe etc then you will be able to bet on the majority of selections.
Can I follow the Basketball Geek just using exchange and Asian Bookmakers?
Yes and no.
You will not be able to bet on every selection that the Basketball Geek advises. There are some leagues that Pinnacle do not feature and the liquidity on the Betting Exchanges is not there for the smaller leagues.
For the NBA,WNBA, CBA and majority of the European leagues you will be able to bet using Pinnacle.
You will miss some of the more obscure bets on smaller leagues and friendly bets.
Outside of the NBA, the liquidity on the exchanges was generally very poor for most other basketball markets at the time when selections were sent out.
Here is an example of today’s bets.
You can see from the 4 bets advised, that all 4 were available with Pinnacle.
The Basketball Geek sends out on average 175 selections a month.
So given the volume of bets even if you are not able to bet every selection due to bookmaker restrictions. You should still able to bet 100 selections or more a month.
The Basketball Geek Review – Conclusion
So the big question is do I think that you can make a profit following the Basketball Geek.
Yes I do.
Although I have issues with the way they record the official results and I wouldn’t follow the same staking plan as recorded on official results.
(They record everything to staking £10 on every selection. So for example they stake £10 at odds of 10.00 and £10 on a selection at odds of 1.87)
Shortening Odds
The Basketball Geek generally advises selections that shorten in odds throughout the day. This is a very good sign that long term these selections are going to be profitable.
Here is an example from today, the over 190.5 in the Blackwater vs Northport game.
The selection was tipped at odds of 1.9 and closed at 1.7 with Pinnacle.
Using a variable staking strategy. Staking smaller amounts on higher odds (£5 at odds of 10.00) and staking higher amounts on lower odds (£50 at odds 1.87)
Which I believe will be profitable in the long term.
If you subscribe to the www.smartsportstrader.com newsletter you will get a monthly update on his performance, along with every other strategy I use to make money from the sports betting markets.
So overall although the Basketball Geek is not without issues there are a lot of good points.
The volume of bets is high with 100+ selections a month which is a big positive.
I made a decent profit over the review period despite taking lower odds then those quoted. Along with not betting some of the more obscure selections.
All in all I do believe that despite its issues the Basketball Geek is still one of the best basketball tipsters available on the market.
(This article features affiliate links. This means that if you choose to make a purchase, I will earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you. I use or have used any product I review. If I recommend them it is because I believe they are helpful, useful and offer value to their customers. Please do not spend any money on these products unless you feel they will give you value or that they will help you achieve your goals.)
