Sports Betting Investment – Can You Make Money Sports Betting?

Sports Betting As An Investment

Is sports betting a viable way of investing money?

 

Sports betting investment

Sports betting can be a great way of investing your money if you treat it seriously, do your research and stick to solid bankroll management.

In all aspects of betting there is the element of luck or variance. This is why the majority of people struggle with sports betting.

Major soft bookmakers also do there best to advertise sports betting as a bit of fun. Something to do at the weekend with your friends celebrating in the pub after your 15 team accumulator comes in after 5 years of betting.

Take a look at this Ladbrokes advert for example.

In my opinion it should be retitled “This is the mug bettors life.”

Why Sports Betting Can Be A Good Investment

It is short term thinking in sports betting that makes the majority of sports bettors long term losers. It is why the mug bettors love large accumulator bets, poor value first goalscorer or correct score bets. They want to win big and they want it instantly.

If you want to make money from sports betting you have to look at it long term. Set aside your sports betting bankrolland see it as an investment for the year or season.

Treat sports betting like you would treat any other serious business. Keep detailed records of your bets for evaluation so you can see what works and what doesn’t.

If you aren’t a proven profitable bettor then you may look at paying a sports tipster or service to provide you with profitable tips.

Initially when I looked at sports betting tipsters I thought they were all a scam/unprofitable and its true that the vast majority are.

After quite a lot of research however I found that is was possible to make money from sports betting if approached correct.

Daily25 is a great blog showing how an Aussie attempts to make $250 a day from sports betting, its a blog with lots of useful information. The Secret Betting Club is another resource that enabled me to look as sports betting as a serious investment. It is packed full of betting articles and in depth tipster reviews that span years in some cases.

Low Risk Sports Betting Strategy

Sports betting investment doesn’t have to be a risk either. If you are risk averse, there are low risk betting strategies such as matched betting and arbitrage.

These sports betting strategies allow you to build small consistent low risk profits. 

Sports betting investment

Sports Betting Compared To Other Forms Of Investment?

Lets take a look sports betting compared to other forms of investment that are available.

From April 2017 to April 2018 I attempted to make £50,000 profit. The idea was to use the sports betting strategies and sports trading methods I outline on this site.

My starting bankroll was £10,000.

At the end of April 2018 I had failed to make £50,000 but a profit of £25,236 was made.

Let’s compare this with other forms of investment.

Other standard forms of investments such as ISA’s offer between 1-2% increase on your capital over the period of a year. Peer to peer lending offers slightly better returns up to 6.3% with Zopa.

The big advantage that sports betting has is the ability to turnover your money quickly. This enables greater growth on your initial investment capital.

Sports betting investment
An example of the annual expected returns from peer to peer lending site Zopa.

Sports Betting Investment Risk?

It is true that sports betting is a higher risk investment then some of the lower yielding standard investments like ISA’s or savings accounts.

This risk can be mitigated by matched betting and arbitrage which enable you build a risk free starting capital. Matched betting and arbitrage profits can become startup capital for your initial investment.

I used this exact method myself to build up a starting bankroll. Before eventually adding sports betting to my portfolio. As a person I am a very low risk individual. Building my betting bank this way lowered the feeling of risk that I associated with sports betting.

Sports betting has now become an extra source of income that has been slowly growing as time goes on. There are losing periods but over the long term my initial investment is growing at a rate that just isn’t possible with standard methods of savings.

If you approach it correctly sports betting is a very viable way of investing your money. 

Want to learn two simple methods that allowed me to make thousands in profit from the sports betting markets?

Click the image below for my simple guide.

https://smartsportstrader.com/guide-making-money-sports-betting/

 

 

 

 

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Trading Strategy

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy

Goals are the most exciting aspect of a football match.

They cause the biggest odds movement and there are numerous strategies based around goals.

Laying the correct score in the second half is the strategy I am going to write about in this article.

When is the best time to lay the correct score?

Generally I like to the lay the score in the second half of the game in the final 30 minutes.

There are a few factors that I look for in a good lay the second half score trade.

Laying The Correct Score Tips - Betfair Strategy
Cup games are good for this strategy.

 

Urgency – There needs to a reason why a teams need to score and preferably as quick as possible.

One goal difference – I like there to be a one goal difference between the teams. Psychologically this can make a big difference to the way players react. One goal is always very attainable whether there are 20 minutes or 2 minutes remaining.

Home team losing/Cup game – These situations can create an urgency within a team to score. A rabid home crowd spur their team to push forward and can give a side that extra energy. It can also leave them open to the counter and exposed at the back as the pressure from fans builds.

Teams that generally score/Opposition stats – This is probably obvious but you want to look at teams that have a good goal scoring record at home. Also consider on average how many goals there opponents concede away from home.

Game Tempo – Being able to watch a game is an advantage as game tempo can be key.

  •  Is the leading team looking to counter?
  •  Are they wasting time using stalling tactics?
  •  Is the referee stopping the game at every opportunity?
  •  Are the crowd behind the home team? Changes in tactics/substitutions?

Laying The Correct Score Tips – Betfair Strategy

Example

Last night there was a game between Liverpool and Southampton in the league cup semi final. Liverpool were the home side and found themselves down 0-1 on aggregate. It got to the 60 minute mark and the score was level at 0-0 with Liverpool needing a goal to have any hope of qualification.

Laying The Correct Score Tips - Betfair Strategy

Given the conditions of the game meeting the factors above and Liverpool’s tendency to score at home I entered a lay bet on 0-0 at 3.35.

It should also be noted that Southampton were missing there best defender Virgil Van Dijk and this season had conceded twice as many goals in the second half compared to the first. These were other factors that I felt increased the likely hood of a goal being scored.

Laying The Correct Score Tips - Betfair Strategy

Liverpool pushed hard for the goal but ultimately it was Southampton who scored in injury time on the counter. The lay bet was successful £28.53 was made after commission for a stake of £70.50.

I prefer to trade the match odds markets pre match and in the first half. The strategy above however is a good one to consider in the second half if the right conditions are met.

This strategy is basically an outright bet on a goal being scored. Like all betting strategies you need to consider correct bankroll management and game selection to be successful in the long term.

Hopefully this article on laying the correct score will have given you a strategy to consider when trading the second half of a football game.

Resources

https://www.soccerstats.com/

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Paulo Rebelo – The Millionaire Football Trader

Paulo Rebelo – The Millionaire Football Trader

Who is Paulo Rebelo?

Paulo Rebelo is a football trader who is quite well known in his native country of Portugal.

In Portugal he has appeared on national television several times and runs the popular betting/trading website https://www.academiadasapostas.com/

 Paulo Rebelo - The Millionaire Football Trader
Picture courtesy of www.paulorebelotrader.com/en

At the age of 17 Paulo Rebelo began studying the stock markets. Before going on to study at university.

Rebelo notes that he left university after the first semester as he was disappointed by what was taught. He began to study economics and began to develop and test theories on the stock exchange.

Failing to get a job in portfolio management due his age, lack of experience and no degree Rebelo returned to university.

The Betting Begins 

When Paulo returned to college his interest in sports betting began. Consistent results and profits were made from “simple statistical analyzes” in Paulo’s own words.

Sports trading became a major focus of his.

After about a year of betting Paulo Rebelo found Betfair. He realised that he could apply everything he had learnt from studying the financial markets to the Betfair markets.

Rebelo eventually developed his own database and created a model which was able to identify profitable odds in the Betfair markets.

 Paulo Rebelo The Millionaire Football Trader
Picture courtesy of https://www.paulorebelotrader.com/en/paulo-rebelo-diary/

Live trading was Paulo’s next focus and he writes “after identifying, analyzing and correction of some mistakes done, I managed to step-by-step profit with live games. When I started winning consistently I dedicated myself exclusively to trading live.”

There is quite a lot of material from Paulo Rebelo available online. Although it is not perfectly translated into English there are still some useful bits of information and insights to be read.

You can learn more about Paulo Rebelo in the links below.

Resources 

https://www.paulorebelotrader.com/en/paulo-rebelo-diary/

https://www.youtube.com/user/SirPauloR

https://www.onlinebettingacademy.com/

References

https://www.paulorebelotrader.com/en/about-me/

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Accumulator Betting Tips – Can accumulators be profitable?

Accumulator Betting Profit

Accumulator betting profits

Is there a way of making long term profits from accumulator betting?

Accumulator’s are a bookmaker’s best friend they love them.  

In fact you very rarely see a bookmaker highlighting a winning punters success. If however that punter hit a 16 team accumulator for £150,000 you might here about it.

Those bettors that are able to find value week in week out against a bookmakers odds over the long term. Will likely find themselves limited to pennies or unable to bet.

Accumulator betting profits
My weekend accumulator

Why then do bookmakers love accumulators?

Bookmakers love accumulators generally because it compounds their margins.

A bookmaker margin is basically the percentage of profit a bookmaker would make if the amount of money bet on all outcomes of a game were equally balanced.

For example if a bookmaker has a 5% margin on a game this would mean they would expect to make £5 for every £100 staked on the game. In a way this is similar to arbitrage betting if a bookmaker has a perfectly balanced book then they are guaranteed a profit no matter the outcome.

So bookmakers in general love accumulator bets because its compounds that margin for them with each selection. A 5% margin on a single bet becomes much more with each selection that you add.

Accumulator betting profits
Oddsmath shows what each bookmakers margin is. The margin is the percentage on the far right.

Making a profit from accumulator betting

It is possible to make a profit from accumulator bets and like all methods of betting its about finding value.

I have written about using Asian bookmaker to find value bets with softbooks before. We can use this same approach when making an accumulator have a positive expectation.

For this approach we need to find two or more value bets with the same bookmaker. Then put them in an accumulator.

Accumulator betting profits
Oddsmath also shows the no vig odds of a bet. This is the odds of a bet with the margin removed.

You can see from the above that Marathonbet have Osasuna at 7.10 whilst Pinnacle have them at odds of 6.61. The no vig odds are 6.74 which indicates Osasuna are a value bet.

Betting in this way is still going to be very volatile but if you are going to place accumulators bets you may as well look for value whilst doing it.

Accumulator betting profits

Using bookmaker promotion’s against them

The best way to make money from accumulator betting is by using bookmaker promotions against them. Oddsmonkey is an excellent matched betting service and has something called the “Acca Matcher” which was created just for this.

Accumulators are such a big money earner for soft bookmakers they want to entice people to bet on them. A popular promotion is “back 5 selections get a free bet if one loses.”

This offered by William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes alongside several other soft bookmakers.

Accumulator betting tips
Oddsmonkey’s Acca Matcher find the best value accumulators available

Selections from the bookmaker are found by Oddsmonkey which are close in price to the Betfair lay odds. This means generally they are close to the true odds.

The Oddsmonkey “Acca Matcher” then uses the Betfair odds alongside the bookmakers money back promotion to show you the expected long term value of placing that bet. There is also the option to lay these selections on the betting exchanges to guarantee small profits.

This process can also be done manually by searching for odds close to the Betfair lay price yourself. Oddsmonkey just enables you to do it quicker and works out the calculations for you.

Bookmaker’s accumulator promotions are a great way of creating accumulator bets with a positive expectation.

Accumulator betting tips
Oddsmonkey’s Acca Matcher at work

I hope this article has given you a few ideas on how to make money from accumulator betting. When used correctly it can be a good way of keeping under a bookmakers radar whilst still extracting some value.

Dobbing – Betfair Trading Strategy

Trade horses pre race

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy

What is Dobbing?

Dobbing stands for “double or bust” it is a Betfair trading strategy used on the horse racing markets.

The Dobbing Betfair strategy involves backing a horse pre race and having a lay bet matched in-play at half the odds of the initial stake. 

Dobbing Betfair Strategy
Double or bust

The aim of a Dob (double or bust) bet is to make a profit that is even to your stake essentially doubling it.

Lets take a look at an example of a potential Dob bet.

Dobbing Betfair Strategy

In the above image you can see that I have put in a potential back bet of £100 on Bonnie Gals at odds of 5.00.

I have also placed a potential lay bet of £200 at odds of 2.5. If both of these bets were matched you can see that this would equal a profit of £95.00 (£100 – 5% commission) across all outcomes.

If the lay bet is not matched in-play then you would lose your stake, this is where the bust part of the name Dob (double or bust) comes from.

Dobbing essentially works like a straight betting method where you are getting odds of 1.95 ( After 5% commission) on every bet.

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy

How to find a good Dobbing Horse?

The double or bust strategy is one that is quite popular so there are a number of good resources available online.

Patternform for example has an excellent page showing you the historical percentages for horses that have dobbed in the past.

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy
An example of the Patternform Dobbing overview.

This is a good starting point when looking for a horse that will potentially Dob in-play. 

There are several factors to take into account when choosing horses that will be a successful Dob trade.

For example you might look at filtering horses that have historically dobbed 75% of the time, look at whether they favour specific courses, Are they likely to lead the race? Weather conditions?  Do specific odds ranges work better?

Dobbing Betfair Trading Strategy
Patternform Pace Card

The pace card is another excellent resource from Patternform which gives you an indication of likely front runners in a race.

There are a few different variants of this method with some people opting to try to take more then 100% profit on there stake and others taking less. The most common method however seems to be for people to aim for basically an even money bet minus the commission.

Dobbing can be a profitable angle to consider when looking at trading the horse racing markets and might be something to consider having in your trading arsenal.

Matched Betting to Sports Trading – What’s Next?

Matched Betting to Sports Trading

Matched Betting to Sports Trading – What’s Next?

More and more people are moving from matched betting into sports trading. 

Matched betting is a great way for anyone to get involved in the sports betting and trading markets as it is the easiest way of making money. Eventually bookmakers remove any bonus eligibility from your account or in some cases (Boylesport) close your account all together.

Matched betting is a great introduction into sports trading as it shows people that money can be made from the bookmakers. You should also become familiar with the betting exchanges and how they function.

Matched betting to sports trading
Matched betting is an easy way of making money. Whats the next step?

Life after matched betting what’s next?

  • Value Betting

First off you should still have a lot of bookmaker accounts left. There is still the potential to make more money from these accounts and value betting is probably one of the best ways of doing it.

By exploiting the fact that many bookmakers move their odds slower then the sharper Asian bookmakers such as Pinnacle we can find odds that offer good value.

  • Sports Trading

At this point you are familiar with the betting exchanges and are looking to start making money trading. There are lots of potential options with sports trading.

Which sport? Pre match or in play? Lay drifting horses? Back potential steamers? Lay low odds in Tennis?

Its important to find your focuses and break down the sport that suits you best. Which sports are you most knowledgeable about? How much time have you spent looking at the markets? What have been your most profitable markets?

  • Sports Betting

Matched betting might have allowed you to build up a big enough bank to consider going into sports betting. 

One way of taking on sports betting is to build up a portfolio of proven profitable tipsters and looking at sports betting as a long term investment.

Recommended Reading

What is value betting?

Sports trading which sport?

Sports betting as an investment

 

Matched betting to sports trading
Its ok to lose sometimes

Matched Betting to Sports Trading

Major differences?

  • You will lose sometimes

This is the big difference from matched betting to sports trading and betting. If you have been matched betting you will be used to constantly racking up the profits but trading and betting is a different animal.

Losing money is never pleasant but it is inevitable that at some point you will lose money and you have accept this as part of the game.

If you look on social media you tend to see lots of nice screenshots of winning trades or people going 5/5 in sports betting for the day. If you are not experienced this might give you the impression that sports bettors and traders rarely lose but in truth everybody has losses.

Once you accept that losses will happen it makes it much easier to find long term profitability as you aren’t constantly changing strategies, sports or tipsters.

  • Learn about variance 

This ties into the above buts it is really important to learn about variance.

Variance in the short term can make us believe an unprofitable strategy is profitable and a profitable strategy unprofitable.

If you start to build an understanding of variance then it diminishes the stress and shock of losing periods or losing trades.

Recommended Reading

Understanding variance

Learning from your losses

 

 

 

Recommended Tipster Results 2016 – Quentin Franks Racing

Quentin Franks Racing performed impressively when we started our review back in August.

Lets take a look at its results for 2016 as a whole since we started betting with Quentin Franks Racing.

Recommended Tipster Results 2016 – Quentin Franks Racing

Quentin Franks Results 2016
Results to bookmakers with best odds guarantee

I started following Quentin Franks Racing on the 4th of August. The total number of bets for this period up until the end of 2016 were 378.

The service produced profits of £2583 to £10 stakes using bookmakers with the best odds guarantee. The return on investment for Quentin Franks was a phenomenal 47.8%.

Key stats

Bets

378

Total Staked

£5400

P/L

£2583

ROI

47.8%

Not everybody is able to bet with bookmakers that offer the best odds guaranteed promotion and some people cannot bet with bookmakers at all.

How then did Quentin Franks Racing do to Betfair SP prices with is available to everyone with a Befair account?

Quentin Franks Racing Results Betfair SP

Betting to the Betfair SP shows a lower profit which would be expected but the service still generated £891 profit which is very impressive.

Key stats

Bets

378

Total Staked

£5400

P/L

£891

ROI

16.5%

Do you still recommend Quentin Franks Racing going into 2017?

Quentin Franks Racing service is excellent so I have no problem recommending it going into 2017. There are multiple ways of profiting from the service by backing at bookmakers, Betfair SP or backing the selections when they are released and then laying them later on Betfair at a lower price for guaranteed profit.

The service has been very consistent and there have been no large draw downs or worrying periods as you can see from the graphs above.

Any major concerns about the service?

If you betting with the bookmakers you have to act quickly to get the best odds possible.

This just takes a little bit of planning. Set up notifications on your gmail account, login in to a few bookmakers before 09.00, wait for the email to arrive and a get your bets on.

Quentin Franks is an excellent service that you should really consider adding to your portfolio.

You can trial Quentin Franks Racing for 30 days at the cost of just £1 here.

Quentin Franks Racing Review