The Basketball Geek Review – £2211 Profit From £10 Stakes?

Master Football Tipster

Basketball Geek Review

In this Basketball Geek review we will take an in depth look at this basketball tipster service.

The Basketball Geek comes out of the Betting Gods tipster platform.

In this review our focus will be on.

Are the quoted odds achievable?

Can you follow the Basketball Geek using only exchanges and sharp bookmakers?

Is the Basketball Geek a profitable tipster to follow?

Basketball Geek Review

Basketball Geek Results

So first off let’s take a look at our recorded results following this basketball tipster compared to the official results.

Basketball Geek Review Results

The graph above shows my results following the Basketball Geek recorded as staking £10 per selection. These results are over a 3 month period.

In total there were 522 bets, a profit of £308 was made.

Staking £10 per selection a total of £5220 was staked.

A return on investment of 5.9% was made.

 

The second graph is the official results for the Basketball Geek.

There were 586 official selections over the same 3 month period.

A total profit of £329 was made to £10 stakes.

Staking £10 per selection a total of £5860 was staked.

A return of investment of 5.6% was made

Why The Difference?

There is a difference in results for a few reasons.

Missed bets

Selections are sent out at 08.00 in the morning. There were a few occasions where I wasn’t able to bet these selections at this time. I either completely missed these selections or they shortened in odds to the point where I wasn’t able to get close to the quoted prices.

Bets likely to get my account limited 

Some selections the Basketball Geek sends out are on obscure markets, that I felt were likely to get my account flagged as being sharp. For example betting friendly matches in the Estonian league is likely to raise a red flag to a bookmaker’s risk team looking at my betting account.

I made the decision not to include these bets.

Breaking Down My Results 

In total £302 was made from the 1×2 market and Asian Handicap market after 284 selections.

The total profit made from the Under/Over market after 238 selections was £6.

Breaking into down into odds ranges you can see the results in the table below.

Odds 2.00 and below 335 selections -£33.00
Odds 2.00-3.00 67 selections £155
Odds 3.01 – 4.00 38 selections £85
Odds 4.01 – 6.00 34 selections £80
Odds above 06.01 28 selections £21

 

Basketball Geek Review –

Are Quoted Odds Achievable?

The Basketball Geek quotes a long term return on investment of 13.77%, is this realistically achievable?

Basketball Geek Official Results

I will be honest no I don’t think it is.

The Basketball Geek is a obviously a very talented tipster but I do think they that should adjust the way they record their odds.

Here is an example of why I think they to need change this.

Basketball Geek Odds

At 08.00 I received the selections for the day and at the top you can there is a selection for Sporting CP at odds of 2.6.

The Basketball Geek quotes Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, Pinnacle and Dafabet as the bookies with these odds available. (or at least that is how I interpret the email)

However when I go to place this selection I see that these odds were only available with Betfair Sportsbook.

Using oddsportal and looking at the Pinnacle odds, you can see that odds of 2.6 were not available that day and that odds of 2.42 were available when the selection was sent.

Basketball Geek Pinnacle Odds

 

So getting the the exact same odds as the Basketball Geek usually requires you to have access to the one bookmaker that is offering a standout price.

I believe a fairer way to record prices would be to take a price which is widely available with 2 or 3 bookmakers.

Also something I would like to see from this tipster and all tipsters in general is minimum bet odds. If the odds do shorten I want to know what are lowest odds I should consider taking.

Getting Better Then Quoted Odds

For balance however I should note that there were times when I could get a better price then the one quoted in the Basketball Geeks email.

Here is a selection sent out for WNBA games with quoted odds of 1.9.

I was able to get 1.98 on this selection.

The more popular the league, the easier it was to match quoted prices or get better then advised. So for example NBA, WNBA and the Chinese Basketball Association were quite easy to follow.

However overall I believe you will generally get lower then the odds quoted in the official email.

Which Bookmakers Do You Need To Follow The Basketball Geek?

In order to follow all of the Basketball Geek’s selections you would need access to a few soft bookmaker accounts.

The most important one would be Bet365. I found that the majority of selections were found with Bet365 and they were often also the best priced bookmaker for a number of selections.

Marathonbet was another bookmaker that were also were quoted often. If you have access to the majority of European bookmakers such as Unibet, William Hill, Betsafe etc then you will be able to bet on the majority of selections.

Can I follow the Basketball Geek just using exchange and Asian Bookmakers?

Yes and no.

You will not be able to bet on every selection that the Basketball Geek advises. There are some leagues that Pinnacle do not feature and the liquidity on the Betting Exchanges is not there for the smaller leagues.

For the NBA,WNBA, CBA and majority of the European leagues you will be able to bet using Pinnacle.

You will miss some of the more obscure bets on smaller leagues and friendly bets.

Outside of the NBA, the liquidity on the exchanges was generally very poor for most other basketball markets at the time when selections were sent out.

Basketball Geeks Selections

Here is an example of today’s bets.

You can see from the 4 bets advised, that all 4 were available with Pinnacle.

The Basketball Geek sends out on average 175 selections a month.

So given the volume of bets even if you are not able to bet every selection due to bookmaker restrictions. You should still able to bet 100 selections or more a month.

The Basketball Geek Review – Conclusion

So the big question is do I think that you can make a profit following the Basketball Geek.

Yes I do.

Although I have issues with the way they record the official results and I wouldn’t follow the same staking plan as recorded on official results.

(They record everything to staking £10 on every selection. So for example they stake £10 at odds of 10.00 and £10 on a selection at odds of 1.87)

Shortening Odds

The Basketball Geek generally advises selections that shorten in odds throughout the day. This is a very good sign that long term these selections are going to be profitable.

Here is an example from today, the over 190.5 in the Blackwater vs Northport game.

The selection was tipped at odds of 1.9 and closed at 1.7 with Pinnacle.

If you want to see how the Basketball Geek does in the future I will be using the service as part of my making a million from sports betting challenge.

Using a variable staking strategy. Staking smaller amounts on higher odds (£5 at odds of 10.00) and staking higher amounts on lower odds (£50 at odds 1.87)

Which I believe will be profitable in the long term.

If you subscribe to the www.smartsportstrader.com newsletter you will get a monthly update on his performance, along with every other strategy I use to make money from the sports betting markets.

So overall although the Basketball Geek is not without issues there are a lot of good points.

The volume of bets is high with 100+ selections a month which is a big positive.

I made a decent profit over the review period despite taking lower odds then those quoted. Along with not betting some of the more obscure selections. 

All in all I do believe that despite its issues the Basketball Geek is still one of the best basketball tipsters available on the market.

If you want to test out the Basketball Geek Yourself, Click here for a 15 day trial

Making A Million From Sports Betting And Trading – September Results

After a really good set of results in August.

I was looking to build on this in September and try to get over £100,000 in total profit before the end of 2020.

Let’s take a look at September’s results.

Sports Betting and Trading Challenge

Value Betting And Arbitrage (Matched Betting)

In terms of matched betting offers there is not a lot going on at the moment. Betfair exchange throw out a fiver a week and if you are not limited from Bet365 they still have the occasional decent offer.

The majority of my betting volume is in the form of value betting.

This is betting boosts, accumulator promos, extra places, single bets.

I am still betting at the exchanges where 0% throws up opportunities and also been looking at the Asian bookies and finding value.

(I have been using the Trademate Sports software this month. To gather results for an updated review of the software. This has contributed to the profits this month. It should be noted that I am running well above EV for this month and an 18% roi is not to be expected long term.)

Trademate Sports

When it comes to arbitrage I am hammering my limited accounts. Also I do find opportunities for in-play arbitrage and some small arbs between sharp bookmakers and betting exchanges.

A lot of people think that arbitrage betting is dead in 2020, however this isn’t true there is still money to be made.

Value Betting September

I made a total of 481 bets in August.

A total profit of £2106 was made.

Recommended Services 

RebelBetting Value Betting Software (Readers Of This Blog Can Get A Free Month Trial If You Click Here)

Subscription Cost – £61 a month (Monthly)

Trademate Sports Value Betting Software (You Can Get A Free One Week Trial Of Trademate Sports If You Click Here)

Subscription Cost – £110 a month (Monthly)

Oddsmonkey Matched Betting And Arbitrage Software (Click Here For The Review)

Subscription Cost – £12.50 a month (Annual Subscription)

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

On to the casino offers and all in all, this month was pretty average.

Mecca Bingo seem to be throwing out more offers then usual which is always good to see. Cashino were the latest to leave the UK market however won’t really miss them. As their reload offers tended to pretty poor.

Here is an epic bonus I had on Rainbow Riches Cluster Magic.

Haha exciting stuff right?

That’s pretty much advantage play in a nutshell. The majority of the time its very boring and then now and again you pick up a big win which makes it all worthwhile.

This month there were a few medium sized wins but nothing of note.

Casino Offer Results

During September I did exactly 150 offers.

A profit of £694 was made.

Service Used

(Readers of smartsportstrader.com can get the first month half price using the review link below)

Bonus Accumulator (Click Here For The Review)

Subscription Cost – £12.50 a month  (Annual Subscription)

Sports Betting Results

My own betting was poor this month.

It is the same pattern that rears its head again and again, make money from MMA and lose it betting pre match football.

Below are my long term stats over the last 3 years.

(No sport equals live bets in both football and MMA)

Betting Results

I have written previously that I should stop betting football pre match. Whilst I still had a very small positive long term roi up until this month. It’s been steadily decreasing for a while.

I don’t give football enough attention to warrant betting it and should have cut it out completely a while ago. 

It’s a tough market to beat in general and to think I can just profit from it with a very brief analysis is pretty stupid on my part.

Time to knock these bets pre match football bets on the head finally.

This month I made 14 bets.

A total loss of -£555 was made.

Trading 

Trading has been ok this month with no real standout trades.

When I see something obvious in the market, I will open up a position. It doesn’t always go to plan but over the long term its been profitable.

Horse Racing Trade

Unfortunately with work, family life, value betting, casino offers etc.

I don’t have a lot of time to trade.

This month I have spent time looking at automation and bot services.

If anyone has any feedback on Mercurious or Exponential bet I would love to here from you either via email or in the comments.

In total I made £102 from trading this month.

 

Thoughts Going Forward

A solid month where a profit decent was made.

There is a part of me that is pretty content with just carrying on with what I am doing and making between £1k-£4k a month. But there is another part of me that wants to push on and see if I can make much more.

However to do that would mean increasing stakes and taking on more risk.

When it comes to matched betting, arbitrage and casino offers, I can’t really scale these much more.

If I want to up my staking levels. I have to look at value betting, my own personal betting and adding services which make money from the exchanges or sharp bookmakers.

Which would mean taking on more risk and variance. Probably meaning that I would endure more losing months and larger swings in my profit and loss.

Something that I need make a definitive decision on………….

At the end of this month I did start following a tipster called the Basketball Geek. Having followed this tipster for a few months for review purposes (Which I will write up in the next few days). I am confident that he is profitable long term.

Although I have issues with the way they record odds and the quoted odds they use for his results are not obtainable. He is a good tipster that beats the closing odds regularly and can be be followed using Asian bookmakers (not all selections however.)

 

Results

Value Betting, Arbitrage, Matched Betting –

£2106

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

£694

Trading

£102

Sports Betting

-£555

Total Made In September

£2347

Overall Profit Since The Challenge Began

£93,292

Remaining Target

£906,708

 

 

(This article features affiliate links. This means that if you choose to make a purchase, I will earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you. I use or have used any product I review. If I recommend them it is because I believe they are helpful, useful and offer value to their customers. Please do not spend any money on these products unless you feel they will give you value or that they will help you achieve your goals.)

Football Trading Strategies – 4 Methods That Work On Betfair

Football betting strategy 2

4 Football Trading Strategies

Football betting is a huge global market. It attracts billions of pounds in turnover and is often one the first sports that new bettors try to make money from.

People are always looking for football trading strategies that actually work.

In this article we are going to look at using strategies on Betfair and other betting exchanges. Which allow  you to approach football betting in a way that is not available with normal bookmakers.

Which betting strategies actually work?

What are the best football betting strategies?

Caan Berry recently put out a video related to three football trading strategies you can use for the live betting markets. I thought it would be interesting to cover these strategies and look at the merits, potential dangers and situations where you could use these strategies effectively.

You can view the video below.

 

Football Trading Strategy 1 – Market Overreactions

The first strategy that Caan mentions in the video is taking advantage of overreactions in the market. Specifically mentioning the market reaction after a goal is scored.

When a goal is scored this is often a point where traders will look to exit their position.

For example if someone has layed the over 2.5 goals market at the start of the game. Their trading plan might be to hedge the trade for a profit after 20 mins if there is no goal. If a goal is scored then they will exit the strategy for a loss.

In this scenario if an early goal is scored. That trader is often going to exit that trade without considering the value of the odds that they are are backing. 

This takes advantage of panic in the market.

Football Betting Strategy 1

So in this example the trade would be to lay the over 2.5 goals market straight after a goal is scored. Then exit a few minutes later as the market corrects and the odds drift.

A strategy I have seen used with this type of trade was to hold the trade for 15 minutes before hedging for profit. 

Obviously the danger with this type of trade is that you open yourself up another goal being scored before you exit the trade. 

So although this is a strategy that will generate a lot of small wins, when you do lose it is going to be for more.

If you are using this strategy you have to acknowledge the risk vs reward and as always make sure you have a solid staking plan. 

It is not a strategy to use for every game.

You should always do your research and record when you see the optimal conditions for type of trade. This will allow you to anticipate in the future the best situations for this trading strategy.

Match Odds Market Strategy

Caan suggests in the video using this strategy in the match odds market.

In the match odds market you have the added upside of the opposing team scoring a goal whilst you are waiting for the market to correct itself.

It would make sense to use this strategy when there is a heavy favourite that has taken the lead. Market’s like this tend to have more recreational money in the market.

When you have more recreational money in the market, you have a lot more traders that are not going to be assessing the value of the odds available. They will exit positions regardless of the odds being value or not.

The potential downside of the trade is again the danger of a goal against you whilst you try to scalp a few ticks.

However if you can find opportunities laying at shorter odds. Then the potential profit of a goal coming in your favour will yield a greater profit then a loss.

Football Trading Strategy 2 – Scalping Time Decay

The second strategy that is discussed in the video above is taking advantage of time decay.

As time moves forward in a football game, markets have to adjust to the changing probabilities of the games outcomes.

So for example if Man Utd are leading 1-0 against Brighton and are priced 1.17 on the 60th minute mark. If no other goal is scored then this price will gradually move to 1.01 before the end of the game.

The same has to happen for every other market in the match.

Football betting strategy 2

Here are a few pointers to use this strategy successfully.

  • You need fast live feed for pictures – You don’t want to be lagging behind every other trader and miss key moments in the game.

  • Use market panic to your advantage – If the market heavily favours something to happen odds can sometimes stall. For example a heavy favourite is losing by 1 goal and market expects them to score. However as the game approaches the last 10-15 minutes odds movement can accelerate due to market panic.

  • React to game tempo – Something else to consider is the tempo of the game, is the referee regularly stopping it, players time wasting, faking injury etc

This is a very solid strategy.

During the 2018 World Cup renowned football trader Psychoff gave out free trading advice. He used the above strategy several times successfully in both the goal markets and the match odds markets. 

Obviously with any scalping strategy you are always at the mercy of a goal going against you.

However when using this strategy in the match odds market. There will be times when a goal will be scored to your advantage.

Like all betting/trading strategies it is about finding the situations that suit the strategy and provide value. Rather then trying to use the same strategy for every situation.

 

Football Trading Strategy 3 – Parallel Market Intent

The next strategy Caan outlines is parallel market intent.

This basically means looking at markets in the future. Which are currently related to the one that is happening at that moment.

Let’s say for example Juventus are playing on Wednesday night in the Champions league against Liverpool. During the game Cristiano Ronaldo (The most important player in the Juventus team) gets hit with a bad tackle and is taken off on a stretcher. 

Ronaldo Injury

Juventus are due to play Inter Milan on the Sunday and are priced at 2.2.

However due to the injury of Ronaldo the odds on Juventus immediately start to drift out and are priced at 2.42 within 5 minutes of the Ronaldo injury.

This would allow you to lay Juventus at 2.2 and then back them at 2.42 to guarantee your self a profit.

In the video below I outline how to lay and back (or back and lay) a trade to guarantee a profit if you are not familiar with this concept.

Out of the strategies that are outlined in the video created by Caan. This third strategy is the one that appeals to my risk profile. As regular readers of this site know pre event trading is my favourite strategy to use.

It is extremely low risk and when you are quick to react to information then very large profits can be made.

Which leads me on to the next strategy.

Pre Match Trading Strategy

So we have covered the three football trading strategies that Caan Berry outlined in the video above.

Each of these strategies were based on the live betting markets. With the third combing both live and future markets.

Are there good football betting strategies to use in the pre match football betting markets.

The fourth strategy that I want to write about is pre match trading. This involves opening a position and exiting it before the start of the game.

This is an extremely powerful strategy and is personally my favourite strategy for the football markets.

Due to the fact that it can be extremely profitable and very low risk.

Football Trading Strategies

One of the best times to look for a pre match betting opportunities is when team news is announced. This will often lead to large movement’s in the match odds markets. 

(Below is movement after team news was announced.)

Team News Announcement

For Premier League games, teams often release their line up on twitter an hour before kick off.

Reacting quickly to the line up information is an extremely effective way of pre match trading. As long as you have good knowledge of the teams playing. Enabling you to identify if a key player is missing.

I know some very successful pre match football traders that also use sports journalists and official team forums to get information that the majority of the market may not be aware of.

If you are looking for a very low risk strategy to make money from the football betting markets then this is a good one.

You can learn more about pre event trading across all sports betting markets here.

Conclusion

So we have covered four very solid football betting strategies.

The football betting markets are some of the tougher betting markets to beat.

However if you put in the time and use the strategies that are suited to your approach to risk. You can find consistent ways to profit from football betting and trading.

I hope you have enjoyed reading this article and found some information that you can use to profit from the football betting markets.

If you want to learn more about Betfair trading in general you visit Caan Berry’s site here.

Got any other football betting strategies that you would like us to write about?

Add a comment below.

 

 

Making A Million From Sports Betting And Trading – August Results

Matched Betting results

August was the month I had been waiting for.

Everything seemed to go right, I was on the right side of variance for casino offers and my own trading/betting went well.

At times this year I had questioned whether I should look at putting my time into other things.

This month though validated that if you have profitable methods and solid staking. Then so long as you put in the volume, the results will come eventually.

Sports Betting and Trading Challenge

Matched Betting – Sports Offers, Arbitrage, Value Betting

I did my usual matched betting, arbing and value betting with soft books and continued betting in the Asian markets.

Betting in the Asian markets has gone well the only annoying part is actually funding the account. This is due to fees using an ewallet and then fee’s that the broker I use has added to depositing and withdrawing.

However given there is no commission on bets, very tight margins and often superior odds then Betfair (after commission.)

It is still worth while, it just means that I have to avoid moving money in and out of the account to often. 

I will look at putting up a review of the broker that I use soon.

As I know betting in the Asian markets is something a lot of people are interested in. But much like myself have been or are still wary of using brokers.

Matched Betting results

I made a total of 377 bets in August.

A total profit of £1049 was made.

(This month I managed to negotiate a free one month trial of Rebelbetting’s value betting software. So if this interests you, use the link below. This software usually costs £61 a month.)

Services Used

RebelBetting Value Betting Software (Readers Of This Blog Can Get A Free Month Trial If You Click Here)

Subscription Cost – £61 a month (Monthly)

Oddsmonkey (Click Here For The Review)

Subscription Cost – £12.50 a month (Annual Subscription)

 

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

I had an interesting email this month. From someone that had lost money doing casino offers. They wrote that I fabricate my casino results and I actually work for bookmakers and casinos. Apparently all of the strategies are bulls*** and you will lose money doing any of them.

So yeah obviously that’s not true (no bookmaker affiliate is advising matched betting or arbitrage for example) and I think that most people that read this blog understand variance and advantage gambling in general.

But because of that exchange I have thought it wouldn’t hurt to add some more screenshots of doing offers this month and a video.

Just to show that I am actively doing casino offers and although you can lose money short term. In the long term there is still a massive edge doing these.

The video below is where I hit 20 free spins with a 10x multiplier doing £2 spins on Halloween Fortune.

I was pretty excited when this hit and thought that it could have lead to one of my biggest casino wins ever. If the casino gods decided to favour me.

You can see the result below.

So despite the casino gods not handing out a mega win on Halloween Fortune. I still ran very well on casino offers this month and a decent profit was made overall.

Last month I lost over £1000 pounds doing casino offers, so it was a good feeling to have a month where it flipped the other way.

Casino Offer Results

In August I completed 157 offers.

A total profit of £2439 was made. 

(Another deal I have for readers of this blog is a half price month with Bonus Accumulator. This is the service I use to highlight and exploit profitable casino offers. The link below will take you to my review of Bonus Accumulator. This will give you more information about the service and also give you the first month for half price.)

Service Used

Bonus Accumulator (Click Here For The Review)

Subscription Cost – £12.50 a month  (Annual Subscription)

Sports Betting Results

Sports betting went well this month.

The biggest individual bet that I had was on Marlon Vera to beat Sean O,Malley in a UFC bout.

Again fortune favoured me this month as O’Malley’s leg gave out early in the fight (Due to a leg kick) and he folded pretty quickly after that.

This month I made a total of 20 bets.

A profit of £810 was made.

Below are the majority of bets made in August.

Sports Betting August

Trading

Trading also went well this month.

Not a huge amount of volume but I did some pre event trading on the UFC this month. Alongside a little bit of pre match football trading.

I ended up hedging the above for a profit across all outcomes just before the fight.

A total of £126 was made from trading.

Thoughts Going Forward

August was a really good month overall in terms of profit made. I am always mulling over adding new tipsters or services and I am still tracking results for a few that look promising.

However at the moment and with my venture into the Asian betting markets. I am happy to keep doing what I’m doing and reassess things in a few months time.

This month I put out a new video on Youtube which you can view below.

Youtube is something that I have not really focused on, I made a few videos just out of interest really to see how they would do.

But despite not really doing that much with the channel, it has grown organically. So in the future, I want to be more consistent with content output. Put videos out on a weekly basis and see where it goes.

My plan would be to also branch out of just creating content related to the sports betting markets but also talk about creating other income sources (this blog for example.) Then using these revenue streams to work towards financial independence and earlier retirement.

If any of that interests you, you can subscribe to the channel in the link below.

Smart Sports Trader Youtube Channel

Let me know in the comments how you get on in August.

Results

Matched Betting – Sports Offers

£1049

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

£2439

Trading

£126

Sports Betting

£810

Total Made In August

£4424

Overall Profit Since The Challenge Began

£90,945

Remaining Target

£909,065

 

Guide To Value Betting – How To Win At Sports Betting

Value betting or finding value in the sports betting markets, is the only way to make money long term from sports betting.

In this article we are going to look at one of the best methods for finding value in the sports betting markets.

This is a fairly easy method to understand.

One of the big benefits of this method  is that it allows you to get a large amount of volume through the markets.

Whilst having a consistent edge. 

Guide To Value Betting - How To Win At Sports Betting

Value Betting Explained

First off what is value in the sports betting markets?

Quite simply getting value in the sports betting markets is backing something that is estimated to have a greater chance of happening then the odds indicate.

Lets look at a simple example.

Man United are priced at 2.0 (indicates a 50% win chance) against Everton at home.

The best betting syndicate in the world estimate that Manchester United are actually a 55% win chance. 

Meaning they believes that Manchester United’s true odds should be 1.82.

This means odds above 1.82 are deemed to be value, with odds of 2.0 being extremely good value.

If you are consistently betting odds that are priced higher then there true probability, you will make money long term.

However the hard part of finding value in the sports betting markets is coming up with a true estimation of what the odds should actually be.

Some of the biggest betting syndicates in the world have hundreds of people working for them. Analyzing every bit of data available to them in order to make profitable bets.

In this article we are going to look at a proven method for finding value in the sports betting markets. This method allows us to mimic the bets made by these successful betting syndicates.

(If you prefer to learn via video. This method is also detailed in the youtube video below with an example of a value bet)

Sharp Bookmakers And Exchange Method

One proven way to find value in sports betting is by using sharp bookmakers and betting exchanges as an indicator for value.

Professional bettors separate bookmakers into two categories.

Sharp and Soft.

A soft bookmaker is one that does not want professional bettors, they only want losing recreational players that they know in the long term will make them money.

This is why some bookmakers close players accounts or limit their betting stakes to very small amounts.

Sharp bookmakers allow winning sports bettors to bet with them. They let sharp bettors influence their odds movement and rely more on profiting from the turnover they get from the betting markets they provide.

Betting exchanges follow a similar model charging on a commission basis and allowing professional punters to bet with them.

This means that professional sports bettors bet at sharp bookmakers.

Soft bookmakers often imitate the movement of sharp bookmakers and betting exchanges. However they are slower to adjust their betting odds.

This method of value betting takes advantage of this.

Value Betting Strategy 

If you follow the money from the sharpest sports bettors in the world then you are going to make money from sports betting.

That is the essence of this strategy.

Consistently beat the closing odds of sharp bookmakers or betting exchanges and you have yourself a winning betting strategy.

This is known as “value betting” but is also sometimes referred to as “steam chasing”

Now you probably have heard of several betting systems or strategies that sound good in theory but don’t actually work.

This isn’t just a gamblers fallacy, there is a lot of data to back up this strategy.

Here are the statistics from a company called Trademate which provides software for value betting.

The software constantly scans the sharp bookmakers and highlights when a soft bookmaker is offering higher odds then them.

It calculates if there is value after the betting margin is taken into account and if it is value then it highlights these bets.

You can see that after 2,361,157 bets.

The total profit made by Trademate customers is £4,174,180.

Rebelbetting Value Betting

Another company called Rebelbetting uses a similar strategy.

Again using the odds movement from sharp bookmakers to highlight value bets at the soft books in order to beat the sharp bookmakers closing odds.

Their data showed that the average user was able to double there initial investment with value betting strategy after 3 months, placing 30 bets a day on average.

Lastly I will include some data from a website called bookie bashing.

This site also looks at the odds of betting exchanges and sharp bookmakers to highlight value bets at soft bookmakers.

Bookie Bashing focus on price boosts and accumulator boosts to find value in the sports betting markets.

Again the data shows how successful this strategy is with a profit of £11,445 being made after the first 1000 value bets.

My own betting also incorporates the strategy of following sharp betting money very heavily alongside using other methods.

Although this is not the only method I use, value betting has proved to be a very successful part of it.

 

Alright so we have looked at data from multiple different sources to show that this strategy really works.

Now lets take a look at an actual example.

Value Betting Strategy Example

Borussia Dortmund are taking on Bayern Munich tomorrow.

By using the odds comparison site Oddsmath.com.

I had a look at the current odds available and found a bet which is showing value according to current market prices.

Marathonbet are pricing Borussia Dortmund at 3.88 which is a stand out price compared to the rest of the market.

Value Betting Example

I took a look at what the current price was on Betfair Exchange which is a sharp market for football betting.

Betting exchanges will often mirror the prices of the sharp Asian bookmakers.

Value Betting Example 2

Betfair Exchange showed a back price of 3.8 and a lay price of 3.85. 

This is an strong indicator that currently the price of 3.88 that is currently offered by Marathonbet is indeed value.

Now obviously odds can change. They can drift in price and the bet is no longer seen as value. However they can also shorten in price becoming better value. 

Which is why a lot of bettors that use this strategy, wait until a few hours before kickoff to reduce the chances of the odds drifting out of their favour.

If you are able to constantly find odds that are consistently better then the Betfair lay price on markets with a high volume of money matched (such as Bundesliga.)

Then it is very likely you will make money in the long term.

Value Betting Tips

So you can see from the above that this is a strategy that really works.

Here are a few tips to get the most from this method of value betting.

Value Betting Tips

Stick to popular sports with high liquidity

The first tip would be to stick to popular sports that have a lot of turnover.

For example the major European football leagues and big American sports. 

The reason for this is that these markets are seen as more efficient due to the large amount of money that is placed on these events.

There is also less likely to be manipulation of these markets as it takes much more money to change the odds of say a Premier League game, compared to the Romanian second division.

Another factor is that a soft bookmaker will likely allow you to bet for longer if you are placing value bets on popular sports. This makes you look like much more of a recreational bettor, rather then somebody that wants to make money long term.

Understand you might have losing runs

Although you are betting with an edge and will make money in the long term. It’s really important to know that at times you will go through a losing period.

If you want to avoid losing runs altogether then you can look at arbitrage betting where you lock in a guaranteed profit from every bet. However the flip side to this is that you sacrifice some value long term by placing a bet with a margin on the other side of the bet.

In theory you will make more money long term from value betting but arbitrage is a good option for the risk averse.

(You can read the ultimate guide to arbitrage betting below for more information.)

Bet closer to the start of an event

This was noted earlier, but the closer the start time to the event. The less likely the odds are to move out of your favour.

A strategy some value bettors take is to only place bets 2-3 hours before the start of an event.

Stake appropriately

One of the most important aspects of successful sports betting is to make sure you stake appropriately.

There a lot of different approaches to staking, some prefer to bet with flat stakes whilst others use a proportional staking strategy.

Most of the value betting software providers advise a staking using the kelly criterion. This staking strategy adjusts the amount of your bankroll you bet dependent on the perceived edge of the bet.

Here is a video from Trademate Sports owner discussing the two staking strategies.

Use Value Betting Software

The last tip would be to use Value betting software.

Although you can look for bets manually it can be very time consuming and you will miss a lot of value betting opportunities.

There are several different value betting providers.

The Best Value Betting Software

Oddsmonkey

Over the years I have used a number of value betting services.

The first one that we will take a look at is Oddsmonkey.

Oddsmonkey is primarily a matched betting service however it also provides tools that can be used for value betting.

Oddsmonkey Value Betting

The oddsmatcher software highlights bets with bookmakers that are higher then the lay on a betting exchange. This is a good indicator that these odds are value at the time they are highlighted.

Oddsmatcher comes with a filter option which means you can select which bookmakers you want see value bets for. You can also select how close to the start time of an event a selection should be. So for example if you want it to only show selections that are starting withing 3 hours you can do.

Another positive for Oddsmonkey is they also provide extra place matcher and eachway matcher. Which are both software tools you can use for value betting on the horse racing markets.

Compared with other value betting software Oddsmonkey scans bookmaker odds at a much slower rate meaning that sometimes the value bet will no longer exists.

However it is also the cheapest value betting service at £17.99.

This is my recommendation for beginners and people fairly new to the world of sports betting.

(You Can Trial Oddsmonkey For Free Below)

 

OddsMonkey

Rebel Betting Value Betting Software

Next up is Rebelbetting.

Rebelbetting are a company that have been offering sports arbitrage software since 2008 and in the last few years started to offer a value betting service.

The software that Rebelbetting offer is a step up compared to Oddsmonkey. It scans bookmakers at a much faster rate and as such it provides a much higher volume of value bets.

Rebelbetting Value Bets

Rebelbetting offer mobile, web and desktop versions of their value betting software. Which enables you to make value bets pretty much wherever you are.

The software is very professional, when a bet is flagged there is a link that takes you directly to it. Which saves valuable time and means odds are less likely to change before you can bet them.

Rebelbetting Graph

Bets are then saved in a log which automatically updates whether your bet won or lost. 

The value betting software offered by Rebelbetting is aimed at the individual that is willing to put in time and volume.

As mentioned earlier it is a step up from Oddsmonkey and is suitable for someone that is serious about investing in value bets.

Value betting software offered by Rebelbetting costs £69 a month.

We managed to negotiate a really good deal for readers of Smart Sports Trader. You can get a no strings attached free month subscription to Rebelbetting’s value betting software using the link below.

 

Trademate Sports Betting Software

Next up is Trademate Sports who are a company that offer the best value betting software in the industry.

Trademate Sports have created a lot of excellent content how to effectively make money from bookmakers through their excellent youtube channel and website.

One of the most impressive aspects of the software is that it is constantly being improved.

As mentioned above it is very easy to use.

You set up the bookmakers that you want to use along with other metrics such as odds, time before event starts, sports.

Also whether you want it only search for value bets at high liquidity events or across all markets.

Trademate Value Betting

The Trademate Sports software then flags up any value bets that match the metrics you chose to use in your filter.

Trademate Sports allows you to have several feeds so you can create several different filters and use them at same time.

You can read our full review of Trademate Sports here.

The software currently costs around £108 making the most expensive software on the list.

It is aimed at someone that wants to take a professional approach to value betting.

I would recommend a starting investment of a £2000 or more to use this software.

You can get a free 1 week trial of the Trademate Sports software below.

Conclusion

In conclusion value betting is an excellent strategy to use if you are looking to make money from the sports betting markets.

It has been proven to work by a number of reputable sources and allows you to make multiple bets on a daily basis with a positive expectation.

The strategy works because you are following the bets of some of the sharpest minds in the sports betting world.

If value betting sounds like a strategy that you want to try out or even if you are still on the fence.

We recommend you take up Rebelbetting’s free 1 month trial and have a look at the results for yourself.

Click Here To Trial Rebelbetting’s Value Betting Software

 

Making A Million From Sports Betting And Trading – July Results

July was a frustrating month at times but also a productive one as I found a new edge in the sports betting markets.

We are now into August and looking at my results I am way under last years profits.

Last year after 6 months I had made a profit of £19,549.

In 2020 after 6 months my profit for the year stands at £7152.

I haven’t really done anything different from last year so the disparity in profits is probably a lot to do with variance.

Obviously the Corona virus has also been a factor. I do think however that I have not really grown as a sports bettor/trader with my trading in particular not being great this year.

Anyway enough rambling let’s take a look at the results and see if a decent profit was made in July?

Sports Betting and Trading Challenge

Matched Betting – Sports Offers, Arbitrage, Value Betting

As I wrote earlier although at times this month was frustrating, I also found a decent edge in the markets.

This was in relation to arbitrage and value betting.

In July I spent lot of time betting with the Asian bookmakers and working out if I could find an edge in these markets which I did.

Also having access to Asian bookmakers opened up a lot more arbitrage bets which I took advantage of. I plan to write an article about how to bet with the Asian bookmakers and also will go into some of the value betting strategies that I found.

Value Betting Results

I made a total of 529 bets in July.

A total profit of £1473 was made.

Services Used

Oddsmonkey (Click Here For The Review)

Subscription Cost – £12.50 a month (Annual Subscription)

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

The casino gods decided to flip the switch this month and for the most part it felt like I was just donating money.

On the last day of the month I managed to get a decent win to limit the damage.

However for the majority of the month it really did feel like I wasn’t allowed to win.

But if you are looking to make money from casino offers or sports betting for that matter. You have to accept that these losing runs are going to happen.

It’s beyond your control so there is no point in getting annoyed by it because its an inevitability that its going to happen.

Casino Offers July

In July I completed 142 offers.

A total loss -£1003 was made. 

Service Used

Bonus Accumulator (Click Here For The Review)

Subscription Cost – £12.50 a month  (Annual Subscription)

Sports Betting Results

Sports Betting Results

Only 15 of my own personal bets were made in July.

At the end of the month a profit of £640 was made.

Sports Betting results 2

Misc

In this section I will include profit/loss from other methods that I don’t record in as much detail as the above. It gets added to my daily P/L but I don’t record them separately.

This included some trading that I do on the exchanges. Along with bets that I have made for tipster reviews. (I covered two of these tipsters here)

Once my children are back at school in September I do plan on spending much time sports trading. But at the moment my approach is a bit scattered. 

This month I made £135 in profit.

Thoughts Going Forward

Another month where profit was made but way below last year’s average.

On one hand I’m a little disappointed by how things have gone this year. But on the other I have spent a tonne of time with my family and taken way more days off.

A big part of being happy in life is about balance.

Having two young kids at home 24/7 since April does mean I have spent way less time in front of the computer then I normally would. 

However that’s time that I can easily get back when they are older and less likely to want to spent time playing “Tig” with the dad.

So ultimately even though at the end of the year I imagine profits are going to be much lower then last years total. It’s easy to become short sighted and think that this profit figure is more important then it actually is.

At the end of the day its only a number and nothing in my life will drastically change because of it.

Results

Matched Betting – Sports Offers

£1473

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

-£1003

MISC

£135

Sports Betting

£640

Total Made In June

£1245

Overall Profit Since The Challenge Began

£86,502

Remaining Target

£913,498

Tipster Spotlight – July

At Smart Sports Trader the aim has always been to find methods/strategies/ways to make money from the sports betting and casino markets.

Covering matched betting, arbitrage betting, value betting, sports trading and exploiting casino offers

We have shown that there are various ways of taking on these markets and profiting from them.

As a new feature of the website we are going to be looking at some of the most promising betting tipsters from around the internet.

Let’s take a look at the tipsters featured in July’s tipster spotlight.

STAHObettor

Stahobettor

Stahobettor is a tipster that focuses on the Polish football markets.

Providing tips for a variety of different Polish leagues and a variety of different markets.

Currently they offer free selections through Telegram, you can find Stahobet on twitter at https://twitter.com/SObettor

Stahobettor Results

From the start of June Stahobettor has produced a small profit with a 4.2% after 52 bets.

Which doesn’t look that impressive on first glance but it is a very small sample size.

 

Stahobettor Results

Stahobettor is definitely a quality over quantity tipster.

The most impressive part of his selections are the reasoning behind the bets and his knowledge of Polish football.

Stahobettor is often able to crush the closing line by large amounts due to his knowledge and the information he receives.

Here is an example below.

This bet was tipped at 2.2 which Betvictor however I took it a little later with Asian Odds.

Podbeskie

Here is the market on Betfair shortly before the game began.

Stahobettor Betfair

This selection wasn’t a one off as Stahobettor has been consistently able to tip selections that would close at a much shorter price.

The ability to do this over and over again is a big indicator that a tipster is going to be profitable.

In my opinion Stahobettor is easily one of the best free tipsters I have come across on the internet.

Are Soft Bookmaker Accounts Needed?

For some of Stahobettor’s selctions you will need soft bookmaker accounts. 

Some selections for example were only available at Bet365, like with most tipsters having access to soft bookmakers allows you to get the best price possible.

However not all selections require soft bookmakers especially in the Polish Ekstraklasa (Top Division) where I found I could bet with Asian Odds or the exchanges.

Conclusion

Stahobettor is an excellent tipster.

If you follow his bets then it is likely your soft bookmaker accounts will be limited eventually.

However that is not a negative it is just the reality of betting with these bookmakers, if you are profitable then they don’t want you as a customer.

Also as stated above you can still follow some of his selection using the betting exchanges and Asian bookmakers.

Stahobettor gets a recommendation from me as I have little doubt that long term you will make money following his selections.

Stahobettor Twitter

The Basketball Geek

The second tipster that we looked at in June was the Basketball Geek from the Betting Gods platform.

As you expect from its name this tipster focuses specifically in the Basketball markets.

Basketball Geek Results

Since the beginning of June there have been 207 bets with a profit of £218 to £10 stakes.

Something Betting Gods have been guilty of in the past is having very wide variable staking with some of their previous tipsters. 

Which resulted in some tipsters staking 10 points on selections at odds of 9.00 then following that with a 1 point stake on a selection at odds 2.0. 

This didn’t make a lot of sense and lead to questionable long term roi figures that were heavily influenced by one or two big odds selections winning. 

So it’s nice to see a tipster with level staking.

The majority of tips are on handicap lines and the over/under market however there is occasionally a 1×2 selection at higher odds.

Are Soft Bookmaker Accounts Needed?

Much like Stahobettor these selections are not in markets with a lot of liquidity so soft bookmaker accounts are a big benefit.

Bet365 probably being one of the most important as they are generally slower to lower there odds.

If you are quick to bet selections. I have often been able to match the quoted odds using Asian bookmakers.

Having looked at Betting exchanges there is often very little money in the markets so that doesn’t look like a viable way of betting these selections.

The Basketball Geek sends out selections at 08.00 everyday with the odds available at a number of bookmakers.

Odds do tend to generally shorten throughout the day so to be able to bet them early is beneficial.

Occasionally I have also found that a better price is available with one bookmaker.

Conclusion

I have been impressed so far with the Basketball Geek.

He seems to have a clear edge betting in the basketball markets.

Again as mentioned previously with Stahobettor’s selections. Long term betting these selections with soft bookmakers is going to see your account limited eventually.

But that shouldn’t put you off, as its an inevitability that if your a profitable sports bettor this is going to happen.

The Basketball Geek looks to a be a very promising tipster and is one that we going to continue to monitor.

Click Here If You Want To Trial The Basketball Geek For 15 Days

 

(If you are running a profitable tipster service and would like to be featured in the tipster spotlight. Send an email to [email protected]

(This article features affiliate links. This means that if you choose to make a purchase, I will earn a commission. This commission comes at no additional cost to you. I use or have used any product I review. If I recommend them it is because I believe they are helpful, useful and offer value to their customers. Please do not spend any money on these products unless you feel they will give you value or that they will help you achieve your goals.)

Making A Million From Sports Betting And Trading – June Results

June was a good month.

It seems like things are getting back to normal and the return of regular sport was a welcome one.

I did miss it, its nice to have busy Saturday’s back where I’m firing off value bets everywhere and tallying everything at the end of the day. Might be the degenerate gambler side of me that still remains but I do like having lots of action on.

Horses, football, UFC I love it when the weekends are packed.

Anyway lets take a look at the results from June.

Sports Betting and Trading Challenge

Matched Betting – Sports Offers, Arbitrage, Value Betting

June saw the return of the Bet365 bet £50 get £50 in-play offer.

Which is one if not the best recurring matched betting offer that still gets thrown out from time to time. 

The Ascot horse racing festival was also in June and helped a poor start to the month turn around.

I made a total of 495 bets in June.

A total profit of £1247 was made.

Value Betting June

Services Used

Oddsmonkey (Click Here For The Review)

Subscription Cost – £12.50 a month (Annual Subscription)

Bookie Bashing

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

I did nearly 100 less offers in June compared to May.

Which I was quite surprised about when I went over the results for the month.

Didn’t do many sign ups this month and the increase in sports probably was a factor.

As a result the month end P/L was solid without being spectacular.

 

Casino Offer Results

In June I completed 145 offers.

A total profit £341 was made. 

Service Used

Bonus Accumulator (Click Here For The Review)

Subscription Cost – £12.50 a month  (Annual Subscription)

Sports Betting Results

During June I made 11 bets and made a total profit of £235.

Not much to say really other then I need to stake more on MMA betting (Which I stated in last months update but didn’t apply.)

I know that is where my biggest edge is and has been for a years. After using some of my bankroll for building work for my house. I have been overly cautious with my staking and that is something I need to address.

Misc

Looking at my day to day results and the one recorded here.

I am -£123 less, not sure why to be honest. At a guess it is probably from following a few unrecorded tipster bets.

Thoughts Going Forward

As things return to a more normal state.

I will look to resume with the services I was previously using, which were Trade On Sports and FTS Racing. Have also been tracking a few tipsters that look very promising in the past few months which should also be solid additions.

Have to admit have the kids at home 24/7 has lead to a less structured approach with my betting and trading. Personally I thrive on structure so things do seem a little scattered at the moment and is one of the reasons I haven’t done any trading.

However overall I am happy with this month’s results.

Results

Matched Betting – Sports Offers

£1247

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

£341

MISC

-£123

Sports Betting

£235

Total Made In June

£1720

Overall Profit Since The Challenge Began

£85,257

Remaining Target

£914,743

Making A Million From Sports Betting And Trading – May Results

Sports are gradually returning and things are looking up from a sports betting/trading perspective.

Again my main focus this month was on casino offers but the return of German football has been a welcome one!

Sports Betting and Trading Challenge

Looking ahead June promises the return of the Premier League along with other football. 

This brings more value betting opportunities and also matched betting opportunities which in turn should mean there is more profit to be made.

But for now let’s take a look at results from May in the ongoing making a million from the sports betting markets challenge.

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

Let’s start with where most of the profit came from in May.

In May I did 235 offers.

A total profit £1372 was made. 

Another solid month of profit from casino offers and I got the chance to check out a new service Bonus Accumulator, which I was impressed with. They highlighted pretty much all the offers that I been previously manually working out and seem on top of finding as much value as possible from casino offers.

So going forward that will be the service that I use to exploit casino offers.

Casino Offers May

If you are still not taking advantage of casino offers and interested in leaning more.

I have linked a video and article below which should be helpful.

Article – Make Money From Casino Bonuses

Video – How I Profit From Casino Offers

Service Used

Bonus Accumulator (Click Here For The Review)

Subscription Cost – £12.50 a month  (Annual Subscription)

Matched Betting – Sports Offers, Arbitrage, Value Betting

There were a few matched betting offers around and I managed to pick up some value bets.

Although it didn’t seem like the market was able to adjust to there being no crowd. So relying on the market price to indicate value might not have been the best idea.

You could see this as starting prices in football didn’t seem to mean much and there were massive adjustments made in-play after 10 mins in the match odds market.

During May I made 59 bets.

A loss of -£127 was made.

Services Used

Oddsmonkey (Click Here For The Review)

Subscription Cost – £12.50 a month (Annual Subscription)

Bookie Bashing

Sports Betting Results

In May I made a total of 24 bets.

A loss of £45 was made.

During May I had a look through my long term betting results as for the last year I have been a losing sports bettor.

I also delved deeper into my long term stats dating back to 2017.

Betting Results

From the graph I can see that I am performing well betting MMA and also in-play MMA/Football over the long term (This is shown as No Sport on Bettin.gs.)

Although the sample of bets isn’t huge it looks like my pre match football bets (red line on the graph) are not really making any money. 

It makes sense going forward to increase my bet size on Mixed Martial Arts and leave betting pre-match on football alone. I am very confident in my edge betting MMA markets but obviously football markets are a lot sharper.

Hopefully this change should see a decent profit made over the coming year.

Services

Previously I had been using Trade On Sport and FTS Racing. I won’t be using these services until sport resumes in normal form. Both are good services and I am confident long term they will be profitable but during this period I want to be cautious. 

My main focus is going to be on area’s that I am confident I have a large edge in ( Casino offers, mma betting, pre-match trading.)

Results

Matched Betting – Sports Offers

£-127

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

£1372

Trading Results

-£46

Sports Betting

-£45

Total Made In May

£1156

Overall Profit Since The Challenge Began

£83,537

Remaining Target

£916,463

Thoughts Going Forward

Got to admit I have been pretty disappointed with results this year after doing really well last year, I hoped that momentum would continue.

However at the end of the day it is only betting and with everything that’s happened I should really be grateful for everything that I have already. For a lot of people that live on this world there is no opportunity to make money from the sports betting world. 

In fact there is very little opportunity for them at all.

Puts things into perspective, anyway moving on to June.

The return of the Premier League is sure to bring more matched betting offers to the table and should be some good pre-match trading opportunities.

Thanks for reading, hope you have a profitable June.