The blog has been pretty quiet the last few months. My main reason for not writing much has been to spend less time in front of the computer. Obviously with the large amount of matched betting/trading/exploiting casino offers I do it involves long hours in front of the computer.
This isn’t healthy so for the last few months I have prioritized spending more time being physically active.
However I am still pursuing my goal of making lifetime profits of over a million pounds.
In this article I going to take a look at my results over the year and also go into more detail about the methods I use to make these profits.
Total Made In 2018
Overall Profit Since The Challenge Began
Lets take a look at the methods used and the how much each method attributed to the total profit.
Matched Betting/Value Betting/Arbitrage
Total Profit In 2018
This is the core part of my portfolio and has been for several years.
Matched betting and arbitrage are extremely low risk and they have allowed me to venture into putting more money into higher risk methods such as value betting.
On the months where value betting or exploiting casino offers don’t do well, these low risk methods lessen the blow. Although it should be said that you need to take a long term view with betting/trading. Having small but consistent profits does lessen the stress when you go through a losing period.
I have written about matched betting and arbitrage previously in quite a lot of detail. So I won’t go into too much detail about these methods as the majority of people reading this will already have a firm grasp on these methods.
If you want to learn about matched betting and arbitrage read this article.
From September on wards I put a much larger focus on value betting.
Now value betting basically involves backing odds that are above Betfair’s lay odds or Pinnacles odds with the margin removed. In larger more efficient markets this has been shown to be profitable.
Here is an example below of profits made using value selections from a service called Bookie Bashing.
The majority of my value bets have been on enhanced bookmaker accumulators, boosts and the each way value betting method on horse racing. In the last few months I have also been getting on value bets at William Hill and Betfred’s local shops.
This for me has been a great way to increase my turnover on bets that have a long term positive expectancy. Another positive about value betting is that it is time efficient. It often takes less then a minute to find a bet and place it.
Subscription Cost – £12.50 a month (Annual Subscription)
Exploiting Casino Offers
Total Profit In 2018
In 2018 I stuck to mainly low and medium risk casino offers. I do venture into the occasional high risk offers. However I know that the variance can be pretty extreme at the higher end. Having spoken to people that have had £10k-£20k draw downs. Its an area that I am still unwilling to get too involved in.
I really thought that in 2018 my profits from casino offers would exceed the rest of the methods that I use. However it has been noticeable that much like matched betting offers, the profit margins on casino offers have been getting thinner. There are still good offers but I lot of casino’s have increased wagering and put winning caps on bonuses which either eradicates the value or makes it not very worthwhile.
Not sure if this trend will continue into 2019 but I still think there will be enough decent low and medium risk offers to grind out a good profit.
Subscription Cost – £9.60 a month (Annual Subscription)
Total Profit In 2018
For a long time I have had the idea to build a portfolio of profitable sports betting tipsters. Take things easy, follow their selections and make a decent yearly income. In 2018 I trialed this and followed two tipsters the Morning Value Lite Service and The Football Guru.
After following these tipsters for a few months and making a small loss. I stopped backing their selections. Which given how much I have stated “betting is a long term game” on this blog over and over, is not really following my own advice.
My only excuse is that with a young family getting on selections at certain time frames isn’t always easy. I would become frustrated when I couldn’t get on the selections when they arrived in my email.
So basically I failed once again in my attempt to make money from betting tipsters.
On a more positive note, my own trading and betting this year has gone really well.
Betting And Trading Results
The majority of my betting has been on the sport of mixed martial arts (mainly UFC) and in-play football. There were also a few of Psychoff’s in-play suggestions and I also often follow bets advised on Matchbook’s football betting podcast.
With the mixed martial arts betting I don’t use a statistical approach at all. It is a great sport to bet on in my opinion as fighters don’t fight very often and there are always overreactions to short term results.
When it comes to betting in-play on football. Again I am not using a tonne of statistics but relying on my experience from trading football for many years and watching hundreds perhaps even thousands of markets.
My sample size of bets over one and a half years isn’t huge at 424, so I can’t get too carried away. If I can double this sample size and maintain over a 10% roi I will be pretty happy.
Although my roi isn’t statistically significant enough to say I have a definitive edge. I am confident that I do have an actual edge in the markets. Towards the end of 2018 I have increased my betting size as my confidence and bankroll increased.
In 2018 I made my biggest ever bet £2000 on Tito Ortiz to beat Chuck Liddell at 1.38. For anyone that saw that fight Tito should have probably been 1.10 or below given how Liddell looked leading up to the fight and during it.
I haven’t done as much pre match trading in 2018 as I have in years past. One of the reasons is I have less time but another reason is that there used to be an exploit with a certain exchange. This opportunity doesn’t seem to be there any more. Given that this exploit has been fixed I can go into more detail about it.
A year or two ago Smarkets used to follow Betfair’s odds movements with a slight delay. In some markets the delay was big enough that you could basically very easily scalp Smarkets odds by having Betfair open and following the movement. Smarkets eventually caught on and to the best of my knowledge this is no longer possible.
However there has still been the opportunity for some pre match trading based on team news and occasionally odds that just have a far greater upside then downside.
Thoughts On 2018 And The Future
2018 was a good year for me personally. Betting and trading wise there was still a lot of opportunities to make money.
Hopefully in 2019 we see a continuation of the betting exchanges fighting for matched bettors and offering 0% commission. As this can make a huge difference to your profits over the course of a year.
Profit margins on casino offers did seem to take a pretty big dip towards the last half of the year. However there is still more then enough value on offer to continue doing them.
In 2019 my main focus will be on my betting and trading. Whilst still doing matched betting/casino offers/value betting. In-play football betting markets are highly liquid and I don’t have to rely on bookmakers, with mixed martial arts betting its a little tougher. Close to fight time Matchbook usually have good prices but getting on early is only possible with bookmakers.
So whilst both of these areas are scalable the football markets will allow much bigger stakes long term.
This blog has kind of ticked over in 2018. I haven’t done much at all with it in the last half of 2018 but it has been nice to see that the traffic hasn’t dropped off too much. I plan on being way more active in 2019 sending out my strongest pre match trades and also straight up bets that I am confident in.
How was your 2018?
Did you hit your targets for the year?
Feeling positive about 2019?
Let me know in the comments below.