Why Social Media Tipsters Want You To Lose

If you like to bet on sports and are on social media you will have probably noticed there are a huge amount of tipsters and challenges going on.

One of the most common challenges is to take a relatively small amount of money say £10 and attempt to turn it into a £1000. This is done by rolling over your stake with each bet until a profit of £1000 is made.

Why Social Media Tipsters Want You To Lose

Challenges like these have become very popular with a number of these pages having hundreds of thousands of followers. Now I understand why these challenges are popular its like buying a lottery ticket. You have a small initial layout with the potential for a big win. One big thing a lot of these tipsters and pages fail to mention is they want you to lose.

Social Media Tipsters

This is how they make money. The business model for these twitter tipsters or facebook pages is to make an income as a bookmaker affiliate. Enticing new customers and being given a share of their losses is where their profit is made. Normally it will be between 10-30% of a referred players losses.

Whilst they might “boom” every winning tip and tell you they have made thousands in the past two weeks. Over the long term they only make money if you lose. Do you really want to follow betting tips from someone that profits only if you consistently lose? Seems like that would be a bad idea.

Social Media Tipsters

You will consistently see these types of tipsters pushing bookmaker sign ups. Claiming big profits whilst never recording past results and highlighting wins but barely acknowledging losses. 

In conclusion following these types of challenges and tipsters is not going to make you money in the long term. Possibly you could get lucky and turn £25 into £1000 or you might go on to lose £2500 by following a 100 of these challenges that don’t come off. The only people that are making money from these challenges are the guys running these twitter accounts and facebook pages. Not the people following them.

Is it possible to make money from sports betting?

So can you actually make money from sports betting?

Yes you can but it isn’t as easy as following some dude who says he will turn £10 into a £1000 in 10 bets.

It is said that only 1% of people betting on sports make a profit. If you compare the popularity of these tipsters and pages to the small amount of people following websites/blogs that give out solid sports betting advice. It’s easy to why the overwhelming majority of people lose money betting.

Social Media Tipsters
Matched betting profits from April 2017

If actually making money from sports betting and trading does appeal to you. An effective and profitable approach to take is matched betting. 

I have written an article detailing how to make money from matched betting here. This approach uses bookmaker promotions to guarantee a profit. There are hundreds of these offers available and if you are looking to make some extra money this is a great way to do it. It is probably the most consistent way to make money from sports betting.

Something else you may want to consider is looking into betting exchanges and sports trading. I have outlined how betting exchanges function is this article. In general they will offer you much better odds. They differ to bookmakers as they don’t make money on player losses. Rather they take a commission on winning bets or stakes which means that they also don’t ban winning accounts.

Please share this article if you know people that are following these shady social media tipsters. So at least they become aware they are betting on the advice of people that want them to lose.

If you want to start profiting from sports betting and trading. I recommend this service which currently contributing the biggest profit in my 50k in a year challenge.

 

50k Betting And Trading Challenge – Weeks 5 And 6

After a solid first month. Lets take a look at how the first two weeks of May have gone.

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

50k Betting And Trading Challenge Weeks 5 And 6

May got off to a really good start. I hit my biggest win taking £850 from a sign up bonus on the 3rd of May. Its always nice to get a big win early on as I knew then for the rest of the month I would most likely be reusing profits. Overall I have completed 28 casino offers so far this month. For a total profit of £1058.

My plan was to really increase my volume of casino offers. However I am pretty much on track to match last months volume. I think that big win at the beginning of the month probably slowed me down a little. Its tempting to be content after a big win but there is no real reason for me to not push a bit more going forward.

50k Betting And Trading Challenge Weeks 5 And 6

On a side note. I have been talking to someone that wants to get into these offers but in the past lost money on slot machines. They are worried that they might get into that habit again.

If you understand that playing casino games without a bonus is a long term losing proposition. Then really there should never be any reason to play them. I understand that the sounds, visuals and presentation of these slots may attract some people.

My advice is to make them as boring as possible. Turn off the sound, Use an auto clicker or autoplay, if there is a mini game where you have to get involved manually, follow the same pattern every time. Just keep in mind that these slots are designed to take money off people and without an edge there is no reason to touch them.

Matched Betting – Sports Offers

50k Betting And Trading Challenge Weeks 5 And 6

Wasn’t really hitting many offers early on in the month. But a steady stream of winners in the horse racing added some profit. 

In total I took part in 69 offers. A total profit of £326 has been made so far this month. Not much to be said here. Most of the money came from the horses and with football coming to an end soon. I expect the next few months will rely heavily on horse racing offers to make a decent profit.

Accumulator Offers – No lays

Barely did any accumulator offers this month. At this stage of the season a lot of sides have nothing to play for. So i did cherry pick a few accumulators at the beginning of the month. But will leave them till the start of next season now.

3 accumulator bets were made. A total profit of £15.40 was made.

Trading Results

50k Betting And Trading Challenge Weeks 5 And 6

So far I have made 21 pre event trades this month. The majority of these trades were on the football markets. However the biggest profit was actually made on a boxing match. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez took on Chavez Jr in a huge fight between two big names in Mexican boxing.

I had some profit going in to the day of the fight from trading but there was also a huge arbitrage opportunity on fight night. A lot of money came in on Chavez Jr a few hours before and most European bookmakers didn’t change the odds. It meant that there were 5 or 6 bookmakers offering between 6.0-6.5 whilst a lay was available at Matchbook for 5.2.

Although not strictly pure exchange trading I have added this to the graph.

A total profit of £256 was made.

Quentin Franks Racing – Tipster Service

50k Betting And Trading Challenge Weeks 5 And 6

 

Quentin Franks got off to a really good start with 4 winners in a row to start the month. Unfortunately though over the next two weeks that profit has been given back to the bookmakers. 

There have been 44 selections from Quentin Franks this month. A total loss of -£12.2 was made.

Sports Betting – Value Bets and Personal Bets

50k Betting And Trading Challenge Weeks 5 And 6

At the end of April I was sitting on a profit of £119 and two weeks later overall profit is at £133.5.

A huge £14.50 in profit has been made from 9 bets in May. There were 5 bets on mixed martial arts and four bets on football.

I have been reading a lot about sports betting this month. I went back and read a lot of posts from the Daily25 blog (Where an Aussie attempts to make $250 a day on average from sports betting.)

Also Rowan Day from the secret betting club published his annual profits from his bet diary. He made a 58% return on his capital. Now a 58% return is great but obviously in monetary terms for me personally it wouldn’t be huge (10k starting bankroll). However with say a 100k bankroll that return looks a lot more impressive.

One thing these blogs really show is that you need a long term mindset when approaching sports betting.

When I think of long term I think maybe 3 or 4 months but unless you are hammering a huge volume it really need to be longer.

For example Steve from Daily25 has made a total of  $284,890.00 from his betting. But in 2016 he had a losing year. A whole year where no profit was made. That really does seem like a long time.

I don’t think matched betting and advantage play opportunities will last forever. But for as long they are around they will be my main focus. My plan is to build up a large enough bankroll to the point where I can take a much longer term approach with sports betting as an investment.

 

Summary

Here is a breakdown of the first two weeks of May.

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

£1058

Matched Betting – Sports Offers

£326

Quentin Franks Racing – Tipster Service

-£12.2

Accumulator Offers – No lays

£15.4

Trading Results

£256

Sports Betting

£14.5

Total Made 

£1657.7

50k Challenge Remaining Target

£46,328

Services Used

Oddsmonkey – Matched betting, Value bets, Accumulator offers

Profit Maximiser – Casino offers, Matched betting

Quentin Franks Racing – Horse Racing Tips

50K Betting And Trading Challenge – April Results

April has ended and the first month of the challenge is in the bag. How did it go?

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

50K Betting And Trading Challenge April

This month I have got through 57 casino offers. There has been a mixture lower risk offers such as bet £25 get £5 free on blackjack. With a mix of higher risk sign up offers where you have to rollover several thousand pounds.

My biggest single win was £379 from a sign up bonus. Biggest loss was -£100 also from a casino signup offer. In total a profit of £885 was made from casino offers this month.

50K Betting And Trading Challenge April
Been playing a lot of Retro Reels this month.

I would like to ramp up the amount of casino offers I do in the future. These offers have the highest EV out of everything in my portfolio. So it would make sense for me to put more time and effort into them. Pretty happy with the overall results, no major drawdowns. As my bankroll increases I can can get a bit more aggressive with the higher risk offers and use larger stakes.

Matched Betting – Sports Offers

Betting And Trading Challenge April

That’s a nice looking graph right? With matched betting it should never really look much different to that. Lots of small losses with occasional spike in profit when you trigger an offer.

In total I took part in 185 matched betting opportunities. A total profit of £787 was made.  

The majority of the profit came from horse racing offers and William Hills 4 means more offer. There were a few sign up offers I took part in also.

Overall I think profits look alright. Could I have done better? Yes. There are a lot of small offers that I pass over. It’s laziness on my part but I don’t want to deposit money at a bookmaker for an ev of a £1. These offers do add up over the long term but don’t think its that time efficient.

Accumulator Offers – No lays

Betting And Trading Challenge April

I made 33 accumulators this month. A total profit of £46 was made.

Not much to see here. Pretty low volume as the season draws to an end. At this time of the season there are mixed motivations for sides and lesser sides seem to be able to grind out better results. If I can get some accumulators where all the teams are still actively competing for something then I will. But otherwise I will leave them alone until next season.

Trading Results

Betting And Trading Challenge April

All of my trading this month was pre event. Mostly pre match trading on football but there was also two horse racing trades. Multiple trades were also made on the Joshua vs Klitschko fight.

After 21 trades a total profit of £403 was made. This consisted mostly of lots of small 3 or 4 tick moves. The biggest single trade was on Real Madrid vs Valencia game.

There were two factors to this trade. Ronaldo was a slight doubt for this game but most reports indicated he was going to play. I knew that this would cause the price to shorten. Valencia at one point early in the week were priced 14.00 to win at the Bernabeu. My own analysis had this way too short so I took advantage.

I actually exited these trades a little too early but still a good profit was made. 

Betting And Trading Challenge April

Quentin Franks Racing – Tipster Service

 

Betting And Trading Challenge

Quentin Franks suffered a rare losing month. At one point things were looking pretty grim at -£810 but I knew this downswing would not last too long. A few wins right at the end of the month lessened the damage.  

They were exactly 100 selections from Quentin Franks this month. A loss of -£226 was made from this tipster.

I have followed Quentin Franks for a long time now. No tipster that I know wins every month and there is always going to be negative months. I am sure that in the coming months Quentin Franks will deliver the profits.

Sports Betting – Value Bets and Personal Bets

Betting And Trading Challenge April

I made 28 bets in April. They were a combination of value bets found using the oddsmatcher software from oddsmonkey and my own. A profit of £119 was made.

Not much to take from these bets really. Tiny sample size and something that I may increase as more of my soft bookmaker accounts get promo banned. For now though it will mostly be my own mma bets and a few value bets when I spot them.

Betting And Trading Challenge
A few of this months bets

Summary

In terms of profit I have not really smashed it out of the park. But its been a pretty solid month and an enjoyable one. Spent a lot of time with my kids and family during easter. I don’t mind sacrificing some money as a result.

Feel like I haven’t got the balance completely right yet in regards to my portfolio. I would like to focus more on the casino offers, also spend less time on the computer when there isn’t much going on.

This month I have looked at maybe adding some more tipsters to the portfolio. Golf seems to be a market where there are some decent tipsters. Also recently finished a trial with The Football Guru which is a good service. It is coming to the end of the season so not sure what will happen with the service. It might go on a hiatus or tip in the summer leagues. One that I will start following in the new season I think.

Here is a breakdown of this months results.

Advantage Play – Casino Offers

£885

Matched Betting – Sports Offers

£787

Quentin Franks Racing – Tipster Service

-£226

Accumulator Offers – No lays

£46

Trading Results

£403

Sports Betting

£119

Total Made 

£2014

50k Challenge Remaining Target

£47,986

Services Used

Oddsmonkey – Matched betting, Value bets, Accumulator offers

Profit Maximiser – Casino offers, Matched betting

Quentin Franks Racing – Horse racing tips