On this page I will give you my strategies for football trading focusing on the first half of a match. There is not that much information regarding football trading other then the Lay the draw strategy.
These football trading strategies may give some other ideas on how to approach the markets.
My approach for football trading is to break the game down into time frames. I look to open a trade when the market conditions are correct and the game flow fits my strategy.
0-15 mins opening period of the game
Most of the time I use this period of the game to assess how teams are likely to perform up until half time. Is the favourite dominating possession? Does the underdog look dangerous on the counter, Are key players finding space? How is the away team dealing with pitch size?
I am looking for little bits of information that will help me find a profitable trade.
The only time I would be involved at this time period is if I had backed or layed a team pre match and expect at least a 10 tick movement of odds to happen in the opening 15 minutes.
This will usually happen in games where teams have made large changes to their first 11 or with teams that are fairly unknown for example Europa League/Champions League teams from lesser known countries like Albania, Belarus etc.
15-30- Domination or Drift strategy
This is two strategies for football trading that are basically the opposite of each other. This trade is used on the favourite.
For the domination strategy we are looking to back the favourite that is dominating possession, finding space and creating opportunities, they should look likely to score before half time. If a goal is scored by the favourite you will normally get around 50% of the payout in profit.
For example if you backed a team for £100 at 2.0 and they scored in the 34th mins you would get around £50 pounds profit. A goal against you team will usually see you lose around 50% of your stake depending on the odds of the favourite.
No goal will result in a loss of around 10%-15% of your stake. Always close the trade at half time or if a goal is scored.
The Drift strategy is looking to lay the favourite when they are under performing and not playing well. They may be losing the ball easily, have bad body language, making poor decisions. Also the underdog needs to be showing signs that they can score. Again this strategy will run to half time.
If no goal you will make a profit around 10-20% of your stake depending on the time you enter the trade. A goal against your trade will lose around 50% of your stake, A goal in favour of your trade will see you profit around 50%-60% of your stake. The strategy is closed with a goal or at half time.
The profit/loss percentage will vary depending on the game flow and odds of a favourite. The percentages above are rough estimates.
20-30 mins-First half goal strategy
This strategy is backing the over 1.5 goals market between 20-30 mins. The odds on the overs should be 1.5 or more. The game should be open with both teams showing that they are looking to get a goal before half time, the game should be played at a fast tempo with teams holding possession and little stalling of the game going on.
The profits from this strategy will vary depending on when a goal is scored, the earlier the better. I always close this strategy at half time if there is no goal then you will usually lose around 25-30% of your stake however it depends the time you enter the trade and odds taken.
An example of this trade was in the England u21 vs Sweden u21 game.
I backed over 1.5 at 1.7 on the 25 minute as the game was opening up and exited at half time for a 20% loss of stake as there was no goal. A goal just before half time would given me a profit of 33%. Earlier goals would give better profit return at a maximum of around 70%.
30-45 mins- Late drift strategy
Sometimes favourites are playing well but then start to lose momentum and the underdogs get a better grip on the game. When this happens the market has to react and this causes a quick drift on the favourite. Going in to the last 10-15 mins of the first half especially if the favourite has dominated early and the market stalled and depressed their price initially.
You can get a quick 10-15% profit if there is no goal. A goal against your trade will lose around 50% of your stake, a goal for your trade is around 40-60%.
These are my bread and butter football trading strategies that I use these on a weekly basis.
They are low variance and you should not expect any wild swings in your bankroll. As with all trading strategies its important to use them in the correct situations. This is something that is only really gained with experience.
The percentages aren’t all dead on for these strategies. They vary with odds, match time and game flow.