Poland take on Portugal in what should be a tight quarter final contest between two teams that are fairly close in their abilities.
Portugal are favourites for this game at odds of 2.34 indicating a 42.7% chance that they win inside 90 minutes. I believe that odds are wrong and that Portugal true odds of winning this match are around 2.6.
Portugal haven’t won a game so far in 90 mins, struggling to create clear cut chances against much weaker opposition then Poland.
Poland have shown in this tournament and in qualification that they are a tough side to beat with quality throughout the side. This is a team that has only lost one competitive game to Germany in the last two years and took a draw from the world champions in the group stage.
My Trading Plan
My trading plan for this game is to take a pre match position by laying Portugal pre match for 5% of my bankroll at 2.34 to win 3.75%
I will then adjust my position as the game progress and I gain more information from the flow of the game.
Lets look at some of the possible scenarios:
I feel like the most likely scenario is that we see a tight start to the game with neither side showing a significant advantage and few chances created. In this situation we should see a correction in Portugal’s odds as they start to rise and the draw moves in.
In this situation if there are no goals in the first half I will look to lower my liability as the odds reach 2.5-2.6. I will exit the trade at half time if the game is level for a hedged profit across all outcomes.
If either side score a goal in the first half I will exit for a profit/loss depending on who scores.
If Portugal start the first 5-10 minutes at a high tempo and are dominating possession early with Poland defending deep and failing to counter I will exit the trade immediately.
Conditions like this when the favourite dominate early will stall the odds and the value in the drift will be lost. The basis of the pre match position is on the value of the predicted drift if this isn’t the case then exiting the trade is the best option.
I don’t think this scenario is that likely however if in the first 5 mins minutes we see a very open game with a high tempo and chances being created the the odds of over 2.5 at 3.2 are a gift.
In this scenario the odds will have stall for a good 15-20 minutes and where we could back the over 2,5 and take advantage of the slow drift due to the starting price being above 3.0.
I would then exit the trade after 20 mins if no goal has been scored or if the match settles into a slower rhythm without many chances being created.